Solid-state puzzle: Some claim that mass production has begun, but CATL needs another ten years?

In the past few years, the electric vehicle market has developed rapidly, but a series of problems such as "range anxiety" and "spontaneous combustion" have troubled most consumers. In order to meet people's growing demand for higher energy density and safer technological development, solid-state batteries have gradually appeared in the public eye.

Traditional liquid lithium-ion batteries will not be the end of power batteries, and it is an inevitable trend for all-solid-state batteries to replace liquid batteries and become the mainstream; the bottleneck of liquid lithium batteries is around 300Wh/kg, but the theoretical energy density of solid-state batteries is as high as

700Wh/kg, solid-state batteries are considered to be the best development route for future battery technology; however, liquid battery technology has reached a bottleneck and it is difficult to make a breakthrough, while solid-state batteries have not yet been mass-produced.

Compared with liquid batteries, solid-state batteries have obvious advantages. They are safe and stable, and the solid electrolyte is resistant to high temperatures. It is not easy to explode and catch fire after damage. Therefore, the probability of spontaneous combustion of cars equipped with all-solid-state lithium batteries will be greatly reduced. However, due to high costs and low production capacity, it has not been popularized. In recent years, electric vehicle fires have occurred frequently, which has not only attracted the attention of all sectors of society to its safety issues, but also urged the accelerated commercialization of solid-state batteries.

As one of the world's "three giants of lithium batteries", Japan has a more far-sighted vision in the development of power batteries, with the focus on solid-state batteries. According to Japanese media reports, the New Energy and Industrial Technology Development Organization of Japan was established as early as 2018. Japanese companies and academic institutions will jointly develop the next generation of electric vehicle all-solid-state lithium batteries within five years, striving to invest in the new energy vehicle industry as soon as possible. It is understood that the project is expected to invest 10 billion yen (about 580 million yuan) and will be composed of 23 companies in the automotive industry chain, including Honda, Toyota, Nissan, Panasonic, Kyoto University, and the RIKEN Institute of Physical and Chemical Research. It is expected to fully master all-solid-state battery technology in 2022.

In addition, there are reports that Japan's Toyota will showcase a new all-solid-state lithium battery in some form at this year's Tokyo Olympics; we don't know whether the news is groundless, but the news on the market about solid-state batteries is mixed, and the facts are difficult to distinguish.

Looking at China, one of the world's "three giants of lithium batteries", companies developing solid-state batteries have sprung up like mushrooms since a few years ago. Many listed companies have announced that they will accelerate the layout of solid-state batteries. Even strong companies such as CATL and BYD have taken action in the field of solid-state batteries. Solid-state batteries have become a research hotspot for various companies. Some companies have announced that solid-state batteries have been put into production. The "good news" of trial production and mass production have come one after another. It is really dazzling, and the "solid-state craze" is in the limelight.

In mid-to-late 2019, Dr. Lin Jiu of Zhejiang Fengli New Energy Technology Co., Ltd., a subsidiary of Ganfeng Lithium, said that Ganfeng Lithium currently has the capabilities of research and development, pilot testing and large-scale manufacturing from hybrid solid-liquid electrolyte power lithium batteries to all-solid-state lithium batteries. In terms of product layout, reserve development will be carried out in the path of mass production, research and development, and exploration.

China's first solid-state lithium battery production line was put into operation as early as 2018 at Kunshan Qingtao Energy Development Co., Ltd. China Qingtao (Kunshan) Energy Development Co., Ltd. is a startup company spun off from Tsinghua University. It is one of the earliest teams in China to carry out research and development of all-solid-state lithium battery technology, and has applied for nearly 100 patents around solid-state lithium battery research and development. At the Second Lithium Battery Technology and Industry Development Forum held at the end of 2018, it has successfully demonstrated its solid-state lithium battery commercial production line with an energy density of up to 400Wh/kg. At present, the latest new energy vehicle solid-state lithium battery standard module developed by Qingtao has begun testing at BAIC New Energy and other automakers.

In a speech at the end of 2019, Zheng Bolun, director of the business department of Taiwan ProLogium Technology, said that ProLogium will implement mass production of solid-state batteries in 2021, trial production of all-solid-state batteries in 2023, and achieve mass production of all-solid-state batteries in 2024.

While major battery companies are stepping up their efforts to develop solid-state batteries, the auto parts giant Bosch has gone against its norm and quietly abandoned its mass production plan for solid-state batteries. As early as December 2017, Bosch considered investing 20 billion euros in solid-state battery mass production and acquiring Seeo Inc, a solid-state battery startup, with the expectation of achieving a battery production capacity of 200Gwh by 2030. But less than half a year later, in March 2018, Bosch announced that it would abandon its solid-state battery R&D plan and even sell Seeo Inc, a solid-state battery startup it purchased. In late 2019, Bosch announced a long-term strategic partnership with CATL, a leader in power batteries.

There are endless rumors about "solid-state batteries". Some companies have announced that solid-state batteries will be "mass-produced this year" and "crushed CATL". All kinds of true and false news are trying to attract attention. However, a person in charge of battery development at CATL said that although CATL has produced samples, it may take until 2030 to achieve mass production. Compared with the bold words of many companies, CATL, as a "unicorn" in the industry, seems to be "cautious in words and deeds".

These remarks make people think a lot. Could it be that CATL's advantage as an industry giant in solid-state battery technology no longer exists?

Of course not. In fact, some companies may be right to say that solid-state batteries have reached mass production in the past two years. The gap we misunderstood may just be a "word game" that makes us think that we have achieved a major breakthrough in technology at lightning speed.

In fact, there is a certain gap between "solid-state batteries" and "all-solid-state batteries". Solid-state batteries can be said to be the "inevitable path" for power batteries to move from liquid to all-solid. Traditional liquid batteries will gradually reduce the liquid content in the process of development, from semi-solid batteries to quasi-solid-state batteries, and finally to liquid-free all-solid-state batteries. The "solid-state batteries" currently announced on the market for mass production may not use all-solid-state electrolytes, but may just be gel electrolytes between liquid and solid; while the "all-solid-state battery" that CATL has devoted itself to researching is a lithium battery in which both the electrode and electrolyte materials used in the operating temperature range are solid , which can be said to be the "ultimate goal" of the battery.

As we all know, all-solid-state batteries have many advantages, but it is not so easy to achieve commercialization. In addition to the low rate and high resistance of all-solid-state batteries, the high cost is the "weakness" of all-solid-state batteries. For many R&D companies, the pressure is not small. Not only do they face competition from top companies in various countries, but they also have to move forward in a more difficult R&D direction on the basis of meeting the development needs of existing vehicle platforms. Faced with the risk of being replaced if their products cannot keep up, many companies retreat in the face of difficulties.

But the market waits for no one, and solid-state batteries have entered the "arms race" stage. Companies such as CATL, Toyota, Samsung, Volkswagen, Honda, Dyson, Panasonic, Siemens, etc., from the automotive industry chain to the electronic and electrical industry chain, and even many solid-state battery start-ups, are all trying their best to seize the initiative in the field of solid-state batteries and win market share.

All-solid-state batteries carry the mission of comprehensively improving battery safety and performance, and are likely to become a new hotspot in many industries in the future. When will all-solid-state batteries finally see the light of day? In the global trend of electrification, how many people are willing to wait another ten years for a technological breakthrough?