The export volume of solar-storage inverters turned positive in November compared with the previous month. Is the overseas market approaching the end of destocking?

Affected by the accumulation of inventory in overseas channels from the end of last year to the beginning of this year, inverter companies' shipments in the second and third quarters of 2023 declined month-on-month, and household storage "destocking" has also become the main theme of the overseas market this year.

根据海关总署数据显示，11月出口光储逆变器数量380.3万台，环比+22%，环比显著改善，欧洲户储去库阶段性见效。此外，部分企业月度订单环比已经改善，户储需求有望持续增长。

01

Inverter export data in November

Amount, quantity and unit price (monthly)

According to data from the General Administration of Customs, the domestic export value of photovoltaic storage inverters in November 2023 was US$560 million, a year-on-year decrease of 47% and a month-on-month increase of 1%; the number of photovoltaic storage inverters exported in November was 3.803 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 30% and a month-on-month increase of 22%; the average export price of photovoltaic storage inverters was US$147.3, a year-on-year decrease of 24% and a month-on-month decrease of 17%. The exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB fell by 2.8% at the end of November compared with the end of October.

From January to November 2023, the cumulative exports of domestic photovoltaic and storage inverters reached US$9.36 billion, a year-on-year increase of 17.6%; the cumulative export volume of photovoltaic and storage inverters from January to November reached 47.83 million units, a year-on-year increase of 7%; the average price of exported photovoltaic and storage inverters from January to November was US$195.8, a year-on-year increase of 10%.

Exporting Countries (Monthly)

According to the data from the General Administration of Customs, by region:

In November, the export value of solar-storage inverters to Europe was US$206 million, down 69% year-on-year and down 7% month-on-month, accounting for 36.7% of the total export value.

In November, the export value of photovoltaic storage inverters to South Africa was US$10 million, down 74% year-on-year and up 13% month-on-month, accounting for 1.8% of the export value.

In November, the export value of solar-storage inverters to Brazil was US$43 million, down 34% year-on-year and up 37% month-on-month, accounting for 7.7% of the total export value.

In November, the export value of solar-storage inverters to the United States was US$19 million, down 56% year-on-year and down 1% month-on-month, accounting for 3.3% of the total export value.

Australia/India/Japan accounted for 4%/4%/5% of the export value in November respectively.

02

As inventory gradually decreases to a reasonable level

Household storage shipments will achieve steady growth

With the continuous decline in the cost of solar-storage systems and the reduction in financing costs, the payback period of solar-storage investment is expected to be shortened. At present, the investment return of the overseas household storage market is still highly economical, and the economic efficiency and green energy attributes will drive the steady growth of European household storage.

In addition, in areas with unstable power grids such as South Africa and the Middle East and Africa, the demand for household storage products that can ensure stable power supply remains very solid. Exports to South Africa are expected to achieve steady growth after the temporary inventory backlog problem is alleviated.

According to BNEF statistics, the average energy storage penetration rate in European household photovoltaics in 2023 is 25%, which still has a lot of room for improvement. In the European market with a large scale of household storage installations, Germany's household storage penetration rate in 2023 is 78%, basically the same as the high point in 2022. Although residential electricity prices have fallen from a high level, the overall return on investment is still attractive due to the continuous decline in household storage costs. In 2023, Italy's household storage penetration rate is less than 70%, a decrease of 7pct from 2022, mainly because Italy cancelled the Superbonus subsidy at the beginning of the year, causing the market to cool down suddenly.

Judging from the export data, the amount of inverter exports to Europe in the second half of 2023 has dropped significantly year-on-year. On the one hand, the decline in natural gas prices and the decline in subsidies have led to the gradual weakening of downstream demand. On the other hand, the channel has shifted from hoarding inventory due to concerns about supply and demand to accelerating destocking due to concerns about inventory losses caused by price cuts, which has further shrunk new orders in the second half of 2023. It is expected that as inventory gradually declines to a reasonable level, coupled with the arrival of the European installation peak season in 2024, it is expected to promote the resumption of year-on-year growth in household storage shipments.