Support the construction of "three types and two networks" and promote energy transformation and development

Pan Ersheng, Chairman (President) and Party Secretary of State Grid Economic and Technological Research Institute Co., Ltd.

In the next 30 years, energy and electricity will usher in a new era of clean and low-carbon transformation. As a hub connecting energy production and consumption, the functional form of the power grid will inevitably undergo revolutionary changes. As the technical unit responsible for power grid planning and engineering design of State Grid Corporation of China, the State Grid Economic Research Institute will firmly grasp the strategic opportunities of the energy revolution and strive to be a pioneer in promoting energy transformation and development.

A new era of energy and power development

In November 2015, President Xi Jinping attended the opening ceremony of the Paris Climate Change Conference in Paris and delivered an important speech. In its "Nationally Determined Contribution", China proposed to peak carbon dioxide emissions around 2030 and strive to achieve it as soon as possible. In 2030, carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP will drop by 60% to 65% compared with 2005, and non-fossil energy will account for about 20% of primary energy consumption. The report of the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China proposed to promote the revolution in energy production and consumption and build a clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient energy system. "Revolution" shows the profoundness of the change. Clean and low-carbon is the primary feature of energy transformation. Green development and ecological civilization are calling for a new era of clean development.

In line with the general trend of energy transformation, the State Grid Corporation of China clearly stated at its 2019 mid-year work conference that by 2050, my country's energy development is expected to see "two 50%s", namely: in the energy production link, the proportion of non-fossil energy in primary energy will exceed 50%; in the terminal consumption link, the proportion of electricity in terminal energy consumption will exceed 50%. This will have a profound impact on the development of energy and electricity.

On the consumption side, affected by factors such as the slowdown in macroeconomic growth and the continuous decline in energy consumption levels, my country's total terminal energy consumption will show a trend of first rising and then falling, and by 2050 it will gradually drop to a level basically the same as in 2018; the proportion of electricity in terminal energy consumption will increase from 25.5% in 2018 to more than 50%, basically doubling, which means that electricity demand will also double.

On the supply side, the proportion of non-fossil energy in primary energy will increase from 14.3% in 2018 to more than 50% in 2050, which means that the incremental consumption must be met entirely by non-fossil energy, and fossil energy in stock consumption must be reduced by more than 30%. Considering the resource endowment and development potential of various non-fossil energy sources, the focus of future development should be on new energy power generation such as wind and solar, and the scale of new energy installed capacity is expected to increase exponentially.

Challenges facing future power grids

In the new era of energy transformation and development, electricity demand will continue to grow. The large-scale grid connection of new energy sources with strong randomness and volatility and the large-scale access of distributed and interactive energy facilities will bring huge challenges to grid planning and operation.

The continuous growth of load poses a challenge to the security of power supply. Although the growth rate of load will slow down in the future, the absolute value of load growth is still large due to the large base. In the long run, the tight power supply situation will exist for a long time. At the same time, new energy contributes little to peak load balance. After large-scale and high-proportion new energy access, peak power balance faces greater difficulties.

The large-scale development of new energy is facing challenges to the safe operation of the system. After a large number of new energy units replace conventional units, the voltage and frequency support capacity of the power grid has weakened, and the output of new energy and load power consumption have an inverse characteristic in time. Large-scale access will greatly increase the balance and peak regulation pressure of the power grid.

The power grid is facing challenges from changes in source-load characteristics. The utilization hours of new energy are low, and some conventional units are used as new energy peak-shaving reserves, so the utilization hours will also decrease, and the utilization efficiency of related power transmission and evacuation lines will decrease. At the same time, the peak-to-valley difference of load is increasing, and the "peak" characteristics are significant. If the power grid planning and construction continues according to the current principle of meeting the maximum load demand, it will cause a large amount of equipment capacity to be idle during the year.

Scientific planning supports the construction of "three types and two networks"

To cope with the various problems and challenges faced by the development of power grids during the energy transformation, it is necessary to thoroughly implement the company's strategic goal of "three types and two networks, world-class", and continue to make efforts in terms of safety and reliability, green and low-carbon, flexibility and efficiency, and intelligent interaction. Build a strong smart grid as a support for the coordinated development of power grids at all levels, create a ubiquitous power Internet of Things with comprehensive status perception, efficient information processing, and convenient and flexible application to provide guarantees, accelerate the integrated development of the "two networks", and effectively solve a series of difficult problems such as supply and demand balance, safety and stability, and efficiency improvement.

State Grid Economic Research Institute fully implements the company's strategic goal of "three types and two networks, world-class", serves the energy transformation and development, and promotes the leapfrog upgrade of the power grid.

Scientifically plan a strong and smart grid to serve the energy transformation and development in the new era. Effectively change the planning ideas, follow the principle of "first local and nearby, then cross-provincial and cross-regional", and coordinate the research on power supply layout and cross-regional transmission channel planning. Deepen the research on the grid structure of the sending and receiving ends, combine the grid connection and consumption of new energy at the receiving end, improve the power transmission channel, and strengthen key sections as needed; at the sending end, implement supporting access and near-region grid optimization projects around UHV DC and clean power transmission. Pay more attention to the efficiency and benefits of the power grid, follow the principle of moderate tightening, consider meeting the "tight balance" of electricity, and use 97% or 95% of the maximum load for power balance analysis. Carry out research on system regulation capabilities, coordinate the construction of pumped storage power stations, flexible transformation of thermal power, demand-side management and other measures to improve the level of new energy consumption. Carry out forward-looking research on medium- and long-term power grid development, analyze the development scale of various power sources, cross-provincial and cross-regional power flow arrangements, and medium- and long-term target grids, study the construction of new active/frequency and reactive/voltage regulation systems, and improve the power grid support system.

Strengthen the research and development of key technologies of ubiquitous power Internet of Things, and empower traditional power grids with digital technology. In promoting the improvement of power grid quality and efficiency, study the goals and paths of digital transformation of power grids, improve the perception ability, interaction level, operation efficiency and self-healing ability of power grids, make equipment management more efficient, dispatching and control more flexible, power supply quality better, and power grid operation safer; carry out ubiquitous interconnection and deep perception integration research, gather various resources to participate in power system regulation, promote the coordinated interaction of source, grid, load and storage, integrate load curves, realize peak shaving and valley filling, and promote the transformation of "source follows load" mode to "source-load interaction" mode. In promoting the low-carbon transformation of energy, conduct in-depth research on effective ways of holographic perception, intelligent analysis, and accurate prediction of clean energy power generation, improve the coordinated planning, flexible dispatching, and market trading capabilities of clean energy and power grids, and strongly support the access of various types of clean energy; deepen the research on the integration and application of Internet of Things technology and energy service technology, and promote efficient and convenient access, comprehensive state perception, and intelligent interaction of various energy-using facilities.

We will fully support the integrated development of the "two networks" and help build a world-class energy Internet enterprise. We will carry out in-depth research on the integrated planning of the "two networks", pay more attention to the systematic, holistic and coordinated planning, strengthen the overall planning of the main grid, distribution network and intelligent planning, promote the organic integration of data platforms, application systems and network security in the construction of ubiquitous power Internet of Things, and ensure the coordination of resource elements, technical standards and business applications in the construction of the "two networks". We will give full play to the role of the large power grid planning and quantitative analysis laboratory, innovate the construction of the "online power grid", create a planning visualization application platform with integrated graphics, online interaction and artificial intelligence, and support scientific planning of the power grid.