Current status and development analysis and forecast of photovoltaic inverters

According to the report "Global Photovoltaic Inverter Market Share and Shipment Trends" released by the third-party authoritative research organization GTM Research, the shipment of string inverters exceeded that of centralized inverters for the first time in 2017, reaching a scale of about 4GW. In 2018, with the rise of distributed photovoltaics in various countries, in addition to India, markets such as China, the United States, and Australia have become strategic points for string inverters, and the battle scenes are one after another.

Elimination is a conspiracy between demand and competition

There are three key words in the evolution of the inverter industry: price reduction, market transfer, and string inverters. In fact, string inverters appeared very early and almost accompanied the development of the photovoltaic industry.

In the early days of the photovoltaic industry, the power of photovoltaic power stations was usually small, ranging from a few hundred to kilowatts. Several panels form a string, and the small power single-phase inverter that matches it is called a string inverter.

However, with the development of photovoltaic panels, the capacity of photovoltaic power stations has become larger and larger, and with the continuous advancement of technology, centralized inverters have begun to appear on the market.

Around 2009, my country's photovoltaic industry entered a fast lane, benefiting from the promotion of the domestic Golden Sun Demonstration Project and franchise projects. At that time, the large-scale ground power station market was booming, and centralized inverters ushered in large-scale development opportunities with their advantages of low cost and large capacity. The huge profit margin attracted many UPS, communication power supply and other industry suppliers to enter the market, which rapidly lowered the price of photovoltaic inverters and staged a fierce reshuffle.

In 2013, the Golden Sun Project withdrew from the historical stage, and the per-kilowatt-hour subsidy made its debut. my country's photovoltaic industry officially became one of the pillar markets of the world's photovoltaic industry. Soon, string inverters became the darling of the market again. At the 2014 Munich Intersolar Forum, Manfred Bachler, a senior photovoltaic practitioner, even proposed a solution to transform the existing centralized inverters with string inverters. In addition, with the change of policies, domestic distributed photovoltaics and household photovoltaics have exploded with great potential. String inverters have ushered in development opportunities and their market share has continued to surge. Technological changes and industry reshuffles are taking place alternately in the photovoltaic inverter market.

It can be said that in the photovoltaic industry, policies guide the development direction of inverters, the market determines the demand for inverters, and several brutal "fights" are a conspiracy between market demand and fierce competition.

The iteration of technology and the change of demand obviously have not stopped. When the market shifts from large ground-based power stations to distributed photovoltaics, photovoltaic application scenarios have become more diverse, and the demand for inverters has also changed. When the occasion and demand are different, different inverter structures and technologies must be adopted.

The general manager of the marketing department of an inverter company, who has witnessed the ups and downs of the domestic inverter industry since 2009, said that distributed photovoltaic power stations may encounter many more shadow and obstruction problems than large ground power stations, so the inverter introduces technical strategies such as IV scanning to deal with them. Since many distributed photovoltaics, especially photovoltaic poverty alleviation projects, are distributed in rural areas, it is also necessary to comprehensively consider the situation of weak rural power grids. On the one hand, the inverter must have strong adaptability to weak grids. On the other hand, as the number of inverters connected in parallel increases, the possible parallel resonance is also a problem that the inverter must solve. The inverter needs to effectively deal with weak rural power grids through technologies such as peak feedback, SVPWM control, and active damping to ensure that it does not affect the service life of home appliances and the power generation income of users.

In addition to the improvement of product performance, when the inverter moves into the home along with the photovoltaic power station, it has some characteristics of household appliances, and its appearance and size also need to change. "Appearance" has become an indispensable part of the inverter, and in many cases it has become an important influencing factor in the selection of household photovoltaic inverters.

Survival is a choice between technology and strategy

At the 2012 Shanghai SNEC exhibition, there were as many as 439 companies in my country's photovoltaic inverter market; after four reshuffles in the inverter industry, there were only 286 companies left in 2013. In 2017, there were only about 40 companies that appeared in the domestic photovoltaic inverter procurement bidding, and there were only a handful of companies active in more than 50% of domestic bidding projects. The 2018 SNEC exhibition may be the last photovoltaic feast before the 5.31 new policy, with about 80 inverter companies participating. From the perspective of the formation of the global inverter industry's competitive landscape, it is undeniable that the "price war" is an important driving force, but the underlying reason is that the technological changes brought about by corporate technology research and development are the fundamental driving force.

Photovoltaic inverter is a high-tech product. Its research and development itself is a relatively complicated process. However, the rapidly developing market forces enterprises to shorten the development time cycle of inverters from conceptual design to mass production. In addition, as the entire industry continues to face increasing complexity, increasing proportion of personalized products, and low-priced product trends, high requirements are placed on the maturity of inverter technology and product stability.

But as we all know, it took only a few years for domestic photovoltaic power generation to achieve large-scale application, so the product maturity of this young industry is not high enough, and it has not been tested enough by the market. The continuous emergence of new technologies and gradually improved new standards have posed challenges to the technology and talent reserves of enterprises.

The industry pays more attention to digital technology, quality and service

Returning to product quality, the long-term development of any industry must be based on quality and standards. Photovoltaic people should respect quality as they respect life, and treat quality as they treat their bodies, said Xu Dingming, deputy director of the National Energy Administration's Expert Advisory Committee and member of the National Climate Change Expert Committee. Therefore, based on quality, "making good products" requires strict quality control from the supply of components. Photovoltaic inverters control every detail of the production process from the entry of components, and form a series of standard quality control processes: through a series of factory inspections such as harmonic testing, island testing, frequency disturbance testing, efficiency curve testing, and water spraying testing, to ensure the product qualification rate.

Scientific research is the driving force of enterprise development, quality is the lifeline of an enterprise, and accurately grasping the development trend of inverters and making strategic decisions and responses are the key points in determining the survival and profitability of an enterprise.

Household photovoltaics, industrial and commercial rooftops, agricultural photovoltaics, fishery photovoltaics... More and more new demands are leading the market to the era of "details create value", which requires companies to pay attention to market segments and respond quickly. Companies that make inappropriate choices are obviously experiencing a "cold winter" or have already left the market regretfully.

For any enterprise, the strategy of rapid market grabbing is certainly effective, but it is not suitable for every enterprise and may also lead to greater risks for the enterprise; maintaining a steady market pace and taking a "steady and steady" approach is actually an effective means to help enterprises successfully "survive the winter". Thanks to the implementation of this strategy, some inverter companies such as Ginlong, GoodWe, and Growatt have not only been able to create their own world in the fierce competition, but also have become world-renowned brands from obscurity in the past decade of development.

Development is a challenge of innovation and differentiation

Sun Tzu said: "In every battle, the right tactics should be used to unite the forces and the unusual tactics should be used to win."

As the inverted barrel principle reveals, the longest plank of the barrel will determine its characteristics and advantages. Reaching the commanding heights in a small range and solving the pain points of the industry have become the key to a company's breakthrough.

The life of a photovoltaic power station is 25 years, which means that the inverter also requires long-term maintenance from the supplier. It can even be said that the importance of inverter after-sales service is even greater than the product itself.

The previous "explosive" growth in installed capacity provided a strong market demand for photovoltaic companies, but also caused concerns about the quality of power stations due to "quick success without cleaning the mud" and fierce price wars. Nowadays, some electrical equipment in photovoltaic power stations have been malfunctioning after several years of operation. The inherent deficiencies such as power station design defects and uneven equipment quality caused by the hasty launch of photovoltaic power stations have begun to be exposed.

However, due to the serious losses of photovoltaic power stations in the past two years, the inverter manufacturers who rushed into the market early on either changed their business or stopped production, resulting in the inverters that were already in operation being in a dilemma where no one would provide after-sales service even if they broke down. The difficulty in after-sales service has become one of the core reasons that restrict the improvement of power station quality.

In addition, centralized inverters, which are widely used in large ground power stations, require relatively higher maintenance skills. Once a problem occurs, the manufacturer's technicians are often required to perform on-site maintenance. However, photovoltaic power stations are often located in very remote areas, which makes inverter after-sales service "not so simple."

In order to fulfill its after-sales commitment to the owners throughout the inverter's entire life cycle, Aotai New Energy General Manager Zhang Hongliang said that the steady development of the company is the primary prerequisite for customer protection.

For different photovoltaic power stations, service engineers need to test key issues such as power generation components and power generation efficiency according to the actual impact, and give corresponding solutions after comprehensive consideration. They also need to establish equipment files for the power station, count the models of accessories, and set up a accessories warehouse, so that in the event of a fault, they can quickly start the emergency maintenance procedure, urgently allocate the corresponding accessories, and carry out maintenance and replacement.

In addition, photovoltaic inverters can be used as carriers to integrate photovoltaic equipment, data collectors and monitoring platforms, and use communication technology, automatic control technology and computer technology to realize the monitoring, operation and maintenance, and management functions of photovoltaic power stations. Aotai Zhang Hongliang explained that this can provide owners with operation and maintenance general package services with the goal of ensuring power generation and safe operation, as well as power station operation and maintenance including equipment maintenance, experiments and repairs. The client only needs to send a service person to be responsible for the power station operation and maintenance docking.

In the past few years, distributed photovoltaics, led by household photovoltaics, have continued to grow explosively, allowing string inverter technology to shine; with parity approaching, industrial and commercial, household, and centralized ground power stations are all facing huge market growth. Who will complete the journey will obviously not only be a price race, but will depend on the strategic game and trade-offs of cost leadership, differentiation and specialization in the company, as well as the joint promotion of brand products, prices, channels, after-sales and other factors.