Solid-state batteries are the only way forward in the post-lithium era

▌Solid-state batteries safeguard the future of new energy vehicles

Overseas leaders are stepping up their R&D efforts, and the market is expected to grow at an accelerated pace

Under the general environment, the next few years will be a critical period for international automakers to fully enter the new energy vehicle market. Overseas leaders have included the development of new energy in their established strategies, and there are many leading automakers that are optimistic about the prospects of solid-state batteries.

Toyota has invested more than 200 people in the development of solid-state batteries, with the goal of launching products before 2025. BMW is working with solid-state battery company SolidEnergy to jointly develop solid-state batteries. Volkswagen has expressed optimism about the prospects of solid-state batteries and has invested in QuantumScape, a startup developing solid-state batteries.

In addition, starting from May this year, the Japanese government will invest 1.6 billion yen to jointly develop solid-state batteries with major domestic automobile manufacturers, battery and material manufacturers such as Toyota, Honda, Nissan, Panasonic, GS Yuasa, Toray, Asahi Kasei, Mitsui Chemicals, and Mitsubishi Chemical. With the increased investment of the giants and the accelerated injection of capital, the industry development has entered the fast lane.

In addition, it is expected that costs will be reduced rapidly in the future through economies of scale. Looking back at the cost curve of traditional lithium batteries, the unit cost was close to 3 yuan/Wh in 2014, and with the rapid expansion of production capacity, the cost has now dropped to around 1.2 yuan Wh/kg.

Solid-state batteries are a disruptive technology. Once they succeed in breaking through, the industry's growth curve is expected to grow exponentially. Industrial mass production will solve the cost problem, and the cost reduction logic of traditional lithium batteries is expected to be replicated.

According to SNEresearch's power battery shipment forecast, if solid-state batteries can be commercialized in 2022 and gradually increase penetration, the market space for solid-state batteries in power batteries will be around 6 billion yuan by 2025.

Undoubtedly, the lithium battery industry chain is an industry that can be expected to last for at least 10 years, and the development and rise of new technologies will continue to strengthen the industry's valuation and prospects. With the industry optimistic and multi-party layout, the solid-state battery industry is expected to achieve super-speed development.

Solid-state batteries carry the glorious mission of improving battery safety and energy. They are expected to become a new explosion point and key technical guarantee for the industry in the future. Policies are gradually fading, and the market is returning to rationality. When new energy vehicles return to commodity attributes, technology will still be there to protect them. (Hu Yi)