Why did the total output of lithium battery diaphragms increase but the price fell in the first half of 2018?

According to the statistics of Qidian Research Institute, the total output of lithium battery separators in the first half of 2018 was 760 million square meters, an increase of 18.8% year-on-year. Among them, wet-process separators increased by 16.4% year-on-year, and dry-process separators increased by 24.9% year-on-year.

The latest data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers show that 84,000 new energy vehicles were sold in June, and the cumulative sales from January to June were 412,000, a year-on-year increase of 111.6%. The production of some small urban electric vehicles or electric tool-type vehicles has also increased accordingly.

Since small electric vehicles for urban use or electric tools have relatively low energy storage requirements and do not require batteries to pursue a very high energy density ratio, lithium iron phosphate batteries have a cost advantage, so the demand for dry-process diaphragms is increasing.

Public data shows that the companies involved in the layout of dry-process diaphragms in 2017 include Cangzhou Mingzhu, Yingbolai, Huiqiang New Energy, and Xinghe Zhonggong.

In April this year, there was news: Huiqiang New Energy Materials' Phase II dry-process diaphragm project with an annual output of 150 million square meters has been put into production; Yingbolai's Phase III dry-process production line has also been completed, and after reaching full capacity, the production capacity will increase by 25 million square meters/year.

In addition, there is such a phenomenon in the diaphragm industry: some companies dominated by wet-process diaphragms have begun to turn to coated diaphragms and have occupied a certain market share.

For example, Shanghai Enjie has independently developed an oily PVDF coated diaphragm product for use in soft-pack batteries (the product features one-time ceramic coating, double-sided PVDF coating and backlog). This coated diaphragm product will be widely used in 2018, with a large market demand, and large battery manufacturers have asked Shanghai Enjie to sample this product.

China National Materials Technology Group Co., Ltd., which has also made progress in the field of coated diaphragms, also revealed in an investigation at the end of last year that the construction of the company's 240 million square meters of new production lines (including 2 production lines with a single-line capacity of 40 million square meters, 2 production lines with a single-line capacity of 60 million square meters, and 4 ceramic coating production lines with a capacity of 40 million square meters) is going smoothly, and product samples from the new production lines have been sent to mainstream customers for testing, and some customers have already inspected the factory.

At present, there are still companies entering the coated diaphragm market, such as Xingyuan Materials, Jiangsheng New Materials, Putailai, and China National Materials Technology.

Among them, Xingyuan Materials Co., Ltd. issued a non-public offering plan on June 15 this year, intending to raise no more than 2 billion yuan in total. The funds raised will be used for the "Super Coating Factory" project after deducting the issuance costs. After reaching full production, it will form an annual production capacity of 400 million square meters of dry-process lithium-ion battery diaphragms and an annual processing capacity of 100 million square meters of high-performance lithium-ion battery coated diaphragms.

It is also because the market share of coated diaphragms began to grow that the prices of wet-process and dry-process diaphragms dropped significantly in the first half of 2018, with wet-process diaphragms falling by 39% and dry-process diaphragms falling by 50%.

Tianfeng Securities Research Institute has calculated the global diaphragm demand and market space, and the results show that:

It is estimated that the global demand for diaphragms will reach 3.3 billion square meters in 2020, with a market space of nearly 10 billion yuan.

Although dry-process diaphragm technology is mature and low in price, wet-process plus coating diaphragms have obvious advantages in diaphragm thickness and electrolyte wettability. Therefore, wet-process + coating is the mainstream trend. In the future, dry-process diaphragms will maintain a market share of 10% and 90% respectively with wet-process diaphragms.

According to the calculation that 1GWh power battery corresponds to 20 million square meters of dry-process diaphragms or 20 million square meters of wet-process diaphragms, the global demand for diaphragms is expected to be 1.468 billion square meters in 2018, and it is expected to exceed 3.3 billion square meters in 2020. Assuming that the average annual unit price of diaphragms decreases by 10%-15%, the global diaphragm market space in 2020 will still be close to 10 billion.