Forecast of the development scale of distributed power generation and microgrids in China

China Energy Storage Network : This article is excerpted from the book "Development Prospects and Implementation Paths of China's Distributed Power Generation and Microgrids".

The relevant planning objectives issued by the state

At the beginning of the 13th Five-Year Plan, energy development, power development, photovoltaics, wind power, biomass energy, geothermal energy and other 13th Five-Year Plans were successively issued, but there is no special plan for distributed power sources to clarify the development goals, development layout and construction schedule of distributed power sources. The development goals of some distributed power sources are scattered in some related plans. At present, only the development goals for 2020 have been clarified for distributed photovoltaic power generation and distributed natural gas. There are no specific development goals for other types of distributed power sources. Most of them clarify the development goals according to each type, covering centralized and distributed power sources.

Development goals of distributed photovoltaic power generation: According to the 13th Five-Year Plan for Energy Development and the 13th Five-Year Plan for Solar Energy Development, by 2020, distributed photovoltaic power generation will reach 60 million kW. Continue to carry out the construction of distributed photovoltaic power generation application demonstration areas, and build 100 distributed photovoltaic application demonstration areas by 2020, with 80% of the new building roofs and 50% of the existing building roofs in the park installed with photovoltaic power generation; comprehensively promote the expansion of distributed photovoltaic power generation in the central and eastern regions. "Photovoltaic +" comprehensive utilization projects, carry out various "photovoltaic +" application projects according to local conditions, and promote the organic integration of photovoltaic power generation and other industries; innovate distributed photovoltaic application models, and promote the market-oriented electricity sales model of distributed photovoltaic power generation to power users.

Development goals of distributed natural gas power generation: According to the 13th Five-Year Plan for Energy Development, the 13th Five-Year Plan for Electricity Development and the 13th Five-Year Plan for Natural Gas Development, during the 13th Five-Year Plan, we will vigorously promote integrated energy supply of heat, electricity, cooling and gas, attach great importance to the development of distributed energy, and by 2020, the installed capacity of distributed natural gas power generation will reach 15 million kW. We will encourage the development of efficient utilization projects such as natural gas distributed energy, promote the application of distributed gas-fired power, and focus on the development of combined heat, electricity and cooling.

Development goals of distributed wind power: The 13th Five-Year Plan for Renewable Energy Development proposes to develop distributed wind power in accordance with local conditions. It is encouraged that in areas with relatively abundant wind resources, the construction of distributed wind power connected to low-voltage distribution networks, as well as the development mode combining wind power with other distributed energy sources, should be promoted in accordance with the principle of "distributed development, nearby access, and local utilization" in combination with the layout of power grids and the upgrading and transformation of rural power grids, taking into account construction conditions such as resources, land, transportation, and construction and installation. At the same time, it is proposed that "by 2020, the cumulative installed capacity of onshore wind power in the central, eastern and southern regions will reach 70 million kilowatts." However, it should be noted that the "70 million kilowatts" here refers to all onshore wind power in the central, eastern and southern regions, which is inconsistent with the caliber of 35kV and below that the distributed wind power access voltage level specified in the "Notice of the National Energy Administration on Accelerating the Construction of Distributed Access Wind Power Projects" (Guo Neng Fa Xin Neng [2017] No. 3). Small hydropower development goals: The "13th Five-Year Plan for Hydropower Development" proposes that in accordance with the principle of giving priority to the development of the main stream in the basin and the protection of the tributaries, the development of small and medium-sized basins and small and medium-sized hydropower should be strictly controlled. During the "13th Five-Year Plan", 5 million small hydropower will be added. GW by the end of 2018 and will reach 80 GW by the end of 2020.

Analysis on the development scenario of distributed power generation in my country

According to resource potential, technical characteristics and applicable conditions, the most suitable application conditions and the greatest application potential in my country are mainly distributed photovoltaic power generation and distributed natural gas power generation. In particular, by 2030, the development scale of these two types of distributed power sources will be relatively large. In addition, decentralized wind power is affected by the construction power consumption and environmental landscape requirements in the central region, and its development potential is limited; biomass power generation is constrained by biomass energy resources, and its application scenarios and scale are relatively certain; small hydropower is affected by environmental protection, and further development will be greatly restricted; the scale of comprehensive resource utilization development depends on resource conditions. Therefore, combined with resources, policy trends and other conditions, three development scenarios, conservative, benchmark and ideal, are established to determine the development scale of distributed power sources in my country.

Scenario 1: Baseline Scenario

According to the relevant contents of the country's "13th Five-Year Plan for Energy Development", "Energy Action Plan 2014-2020", "13th Five-Year Plan for Renewable Energy Development" and "13th Five-Year Plan for Electricity Development", the development scale of distributed photovoltaic power generation and distributed natural gas power generation will reach the national planning target in 2020, and the development scale of distributed photovoltaic power generation and distributed natural gas power generation in 2030 should meet the requirements for achieving national strategic goals; the development scale of distributed wind power, biomass power generation, small hydropower and comprehensive resource utilization will reach the relevant planning or resource quantity constraint targets.

(II) Scenario 2: Conservative Scenario

Considering the difficulties in achieving the planned targets for distributed photovoltaic power generation and distributed natural gas power generation. For distributed natural gas power generation, the national planning target for 2020 is 15 million kW, but due to factors such as gas sources, pipeline facilities, and power generation costs, as well as the lack of clear sources of relevant subsidy funds, there is still great uncertainty in the possibility of achieving the target. Distributed photovoltaic power generation and the "photovoltaic +" business model have not made substantial breakthroughs, photovoltaic poverty alleviation has not formed a business model that can be replicated and promoted, and distributed photovoltaic power generation has been difficult to advance under the national subsidy policy.

(III) Scenario 3: Ideal Scenario

Considering that my country's distributed power development industrial policy and distributed power operation model have made certain breakthroughs and entered the stage of large-scale development. For distributed photovoltaic power generation, the main considerations are the substantial reduction in the cost of the "photovoltaic + energy storage" system, the breakthrough in the "Internet + photovoltaic" business model, and the installation of photovoltaic systems on a large proportion of available roofs in cities; the rural "photovoltaic poverty alleviation" has achieved a successful model, and the "photovoltaic poverty alleviation" has been smoothly promoted, and the application of rural distributed photovoltaic power generation has been achieved on a large scale.

Forecast of the development scale of distributed power generation under different development scenarios