The industry predicts that China will be able to fully realize photovoltaic grid parity after 2020

Wu Xinxiong, Chairman of the China Energy Research Society and former Director of the National Energy Administration, pointed out at the forum that improving overall energy efficiency is one of the most important issues at present: on the one hand, we need to conduct further in-depth research, improve the management system, improve the market mechanism, and create a policy environment that is conducive to the consumption of renewable energy such as wind power, photovoltaics, and hydropower. On the other hand, we need to make full use of new technologies, new products, and new models such as Internet + smart energy, smart grid, large-scale energy storage, multi-energy complementarity, artificial intelligence, and the Internet of Things, and strive to improve the intelligence level of the energy system.

The interviewed PV industry insiders believe that the current PV market growth is generally stable, with limited new space in mature markets and rapid growth in overseas emerging markets. At the same time, technological progress has led to higher efficiency and lower costs for PV power generation, and products are developing in parallel with new technologies for multiple single crystals. In addition, the overall market trend is towards grid parity, and the industry has entered an era of small profits. How to follow the trend of the times, in the era of small profits with grid parity, continue to promote PV new energy to become the world's first alternative energy, and ensure stable growth of enterprises are issues that many enterprises are facing.

The on-grid electricity price of some projects is close to that of thermal power

It is understood that at this forum, when photovoltaic power generation will achieve full grid parity is still a hot topic.

Shi Dinghuan, former president of the China Renewable Energy Society and counselor of the State Council, believes that the production costs of polysilicon and modules of leading enterprises in my country have dropped to 60,000 yuan per ton and 2 yuan per watt respectively, the investment cost of photovoltaic power generation systems has stabilized within 5 yuan per watt, and the cost per kilowatt-hour has dropped to the range of 0.5 to 0.6 yuan and has room to fall further. For example, GCL has quoted a photovoltaic grid-connected electricity price of 0.31 yuan, which is close to the price of thermal power in the project location. The full parity of photovoltaic power generation is just around the corner.

Zhu Gongshan, Chairman of the Global Solar Council, Chairman of GCL Group and Chairman of GCL-Poly, also made a prediction on the realization of "full grid parity". He believes that with technological innovation, after 2020, China's photovoltaic industry will bid farewell to government subsidies and fully realize grid parity for photovoltaic power generation.

"Technological innovation is the fundamental driving force for promoting the transformation and upgrading of the photovoltaic industry and green development and achieving grid parity." Zhu Gongshan said that in 2019, GCL-Poly's polysilicon production capacity will reach 150,000 tons, which can meet the production demand of 40 GW modules. In recent years, by increasing R&D investment and accelerating technological innovation, GCL's independently innovated high-efficiency battery technologies such as composite nano will be launched. Through the superposition of technologies, the photoelectric conversion efficiency will be increased to more than 30%, and the cost price of photovoltaic power generation will be greatly reduced through the energy technology revolution.

Zhu Gongshan pointed out that at present, China's western region is rich in energy resources and has the advantage of low-cost photovoltaic power generation. Large-scale clean energy and renewable energy bases are built in the western region. Through ultra-high voltage technology transmission, combined with the application of smart microgrid technology and energy storage technology in the eastern region, efficient and comprehensive utilization of clean energy is achieved. It is expected that after 2020, the cost of solar energy and other clean energy in some areas will be lower than the cost of thermal power grid access, and after 2021, photovoltaic power generation will be grid-connected at parity throughout the country.

Speaking of industry changes, Lu Yonghua, Chairman of the Executive Committee of the Asian Photovoltaic Industry Association and Chairman of Linyang Energy, believes that in the future, with the promulgation of national policies and the development of energy Internet technology, the business model of distributed photovoltaics will be more optimized and diversified. At the same time, various companies are relying on their own advantages to create a new energy consumption experience around the energy system with photovoltaics as the core, and further accelerate the transformation and development of the new energy industry.

The industry needs to accelerate independent innovation

Relevant data show that in 2017, the world's newly installed photovoltaic capacity was about 100GW, a year-on-year increase of 43%. In 2017, my country's newly installed photovoltaic power generation capacity was 53GW, a year-on-year increase of 54%. China's newly added and cumulative installed photovoltaic capacity in 2017 ranked first in the world, exceeding industry expectations.

As the industry develops rapidly, the difficulties it faces have also attracted attention from the industry. Shi Dinghuan pointed out that the industry's production capacity continues to be released, and the contradiction and pressure of market supply and demand are increasing; the product structure is single, technological innovation is insufficient, basic research capabilities are weak, and key equipment still relies on imports; the formulation and implementation of various standards need to be strengthened, and the disorderly competition in the optoelectronic application market has not yet caused great concern. The quality of optoelectronic equipment in various places is uneven, and many photovoltaic power stations fail to operate normally or face high operation and maintenance expenses.

In this regard, Zhu Gongshan urged the government and relevant departments to further promote the level of asset securitization in the photovoltaic industry and increase policy support for the energy storage field; at the same time, the photovoltaic industry itself needs to accelerate independent innovation, further reduce costs, and speed up the process of grid parity.

When talking about the overcapacity problem, Shu Hua, chairman of GCL Integration, said that through automatic elimination in the industry and technological progress, newer technologies and newer production capacities will occupy market share. He suggested that photovoltaic companies should focus on funds, energy, and technical capabilities to promote the healthy development of the industry.

In the view of Yang Liyou, general manager of Jinneng Clean Energy, the photovoltaic industry is a semiconductor-like industry, so it follows Moore's Law. The core of Moore's Law is to promote cost reduction through periodic technological progress and iteration, while also driving long-term rapid expansion of the market and industry scale.

Many companies showcase new products

According to a Securities Times reporter, in the context of technology becoming the main driving force, photovoltaic companies have continued to increase their research and development investment. Companies including Risen Energy, Longi Green Energy Technology Co., Ltd., and Tongwei Co., Ltd. all brought their latest photovoltaic products to the exhibition.

For example, the A-share photovoltaic company Risen Energy (300118) launched a new product array with "half-cell" as the core, including 300W 120-cell half-cell multicrystalline black silicon modules, 310W 120-cell half-cell dense-grid multicrystalline PERC modules and other technology series products customized according to market demand.

Liu Zengsheng, technical director of Risen Energy, told the Securities Times that half-cell modules are highly applicable and suitable for all power station projects, including large ground power stations such as the Leader Base and Super Leader Base, as well as distributed rooftop power stations. In the long run, half-cell products will gradually become one of the mainstream products in the next few years, so Risen Energy will continue to increase its investment in the research and development and promotion of half-cells.

In the future, Risen Energy will continue to develop in the two major areas of new energy and new materials. Liu Zengsheng said that in terms of new energy, Risen Energy will focus on promoting grid parity of photovoltaic power generation as the ultimate goal, continuously improve the power generation efficiency of the client, and thus promote the sustainable development of new energy. On the technical level, the company will develop in three main directions: high efficiency, high reliability and low cost, continuously improve the efficiency of battery components, optimize the structure of battery components, strengthen product quality, and eliminate backward production capacity.

GCL System Integration (002506) displayed 4 new MBB multi-monocrystalline high-efficiency modules at the exhibition, which are divided into two series, single-glass and double-glass, both of which include multi- and monocrystalline module products. Among them, the mass production power of the single-glass series MBB multicrystalline modules reaches 305W, which is the world's most efficient mass-produced multicrystalline conventional version module, and the power of the monocrystalline module also reaches 315W, which is 10W higher than the full score power of the application leader.

According to Zhang Chun, CTO of GCL Integration, the components released this time are not GCL Integration's highest-power products. This month, GCL Integration has participated in the bidding for two technology leader bases in Changzhi and Tongchuan with its technology leader full-score components.

In the view of the interviewed PV industry insiders, how to improve efficiency while continuously reducing costs has become the direction of industry development and a hot topic of discussion. Driven by the domestic leader projects, the proportion of new technologies and differentiated products such as multicrystalline black silicon PERC, monocrystalline PERC, and N-type monocrystalline has increased year by year, demonstrating the driving force of technological innovation and the vitality of industry development.