Dickens said, “It is the best of times, it is the worst of times.” This famous quote is still applicable to the current photovoltaic industry.
As smog locks down cities and the climate worsens, the development of renewable energy has become a mainstream trend in countries around the world. With policy guidance, subsidy support, and capital pursuit, photovoltaic and other new energy companies are on the right track. However, in order to occupy a position in conventional energy, the survival of the fittest of photovoltaic companies has also entered an accelerated period under the competition between cost and technology. Taking photovoltaic inverters, the key equipment of photovoltaic power stations, as an example, there were as many as 300 related companies in the Chinese market in 2012, which was reduced to more than 100 in 2015, and then in 2016, there were only more than a dozen photovoltaic inverter companies active in the market.
How to continue the "best era"? In an exclusive interview with Han Jiazhi, deputy general manager of Chint Power Supply, his answer is inseparable from three keywords: technological innovation, cost reduction and efficiency improvement, and globalization. This is also the general voice of people in the industry today.
Technological innovation——market-oriented
"Science and technology are the primary productive forces" is a cliché, but it is the eternal golden rule of the market.
In 2015, China's cumulative photovoltaic installed capacity surpassed Germany to take the global crown. At the same time, the top-level design quietly changed: the decline in subsidies forced companies to achieve cost breakthroughs through technological innovation, and then implemented the photovoltaic "leader" plan to promote corporate technological upgrades and product quality improvements, allowing companies to "rule the world" with technology.
Against this background, the pace of technological innovation in the photovoltaic industry has accelerated. In 2016, the conversion efficiency of commercial single-crystalline and multi-crystalline silicon cells in my country reached 20.5% and 18.5% respectively. The diversification of photovoltaic inverter technology routes such as centralized, string and distributed types, coupled with the trend towards intelligent operation and maintenance, have jointly promoted the photovoltaic grid-connected electricity price to record lows.
When talking about the company's technological innovation, Han Jiazhi believes that this is not a castle in the air, but should be guided by the actual market.
"Looking at the current domestic photovoltaic market, one of the biggest changes is the eastward shift of the photovoltaic landscape, which began as early as 2015 and was actually a foregone conclusion in 2016," said Han Jiazhi.
Unlike the flat and vast western region, the eastern region is mostly mountainous and forested, and the photovoltaic utilization is mainly distributed. In Han Jia's view, this market trend has also created a good performance report for some companies that mainly use string inverters in 2016. "Because of the complex terrain, different orientations of components and shadows in mountainous and forested photovoltaic projects, multi-channel MPPT string inverters have obvious advantages."
Han Jiazhi introduced that in order to adapt to the trend of photovoltaic power moving eastward, Chint Power has also specially launched a new 1MW photovoltaic inverter, which is not only suitable for large-scale ground power stations, but also for mountains, forests and industrial and commercial roofs.
In 2017, the benchmark photovoltaic grid-connected electricity price was lowered, but the distributed photovoltaic subsidy was not adjusted. This policy dividend continues to boost distributed photovoltaic power generation. In addition, the photovoltaic "leader" demonstration bases that continue to expand in scale are gradually becoming the mainstream, and photovoltaic poverty alleviation may be the next three core markets for photovoltaics. Based on this, Han Jiazhi believes that the company's technological innovation will continue to extend from this.
Reducing costs and increasing efficiency - from emphasizing equipment to focusing on systems
If technological innovation is the only way for enterprises to expand their markets, then reducing costs and increasing efficiency are the key factors in winning the market, especially in the photovoltaic market. In the near future, there are realistic concerns about competitive allocation indicators, declining subsidies, and overcapacity, and in the long run, there is the ultimate goal of transforming to conventional energy at parity. All of these are urging the photovoltaic industry chain to accelerate cost reduction and efficiency improvement.
Data from the IEA shows that from 2007 to 2015, the price of photovoltaic modules dropped by 90%, the price of inverters dropped by 91.5%, and the price of systems dropped by 88.3%. In 2015, the price of photovoltaic modules was about 3.6 yuan/W, the lowest price of centralized inverters fell to 0.1 yuan per watt, and the price of photovoltaic systems was 7 yuan/W.
How much room is there for price reduction? Han Jiazhi admitted that in order to achieve the goal of grid parity for photovoltaic power generation, there is definitely room for price reduction, especially since photovoltaic components account for nearly half of the system investment, and it is necessary to accelerate cost reduction and efficiency improvement. "Although photovoltaic inverters are the key 'bridge' connecting photovoltaic component power generation equipment and the power grid, they can be said to be the core equipment of the photovoltaic system, but they are the fastest to reduce prices." Han Jiazhi said.
Han Jiazhi emphasized: "Among the failures in photovoltaic power stations, failures caused by equipment quality account for 50%, among which inverters have the highest rate. This is an objective fact that photovoltaic inverter companies need to pay attention to. If we continue to simply emphasize reducing the investment cost of inverters, it is not ruled out that some small-scale companies will think about replacing components. Poor-quality components can cause inverter shutdown at the least, or even cause power station fires at the worst, which is not worth the loss. Therefore, reducing the cost and increasing the efficiency of photovoltaic inverters must rely on technological innovation."
The space for cost reduction is narrowing, while the conversion efficiency of the key technical parameter of photovoltaic inverters is currently close to 99%. How to break through? Han Jiazhi pointed out that the next step of reducing costs and increasing efficiency of photovoltaic inverters will be more considered from the perspective of the entire system, such as increasing power generation to reduce the system's electricity cost, enhancing equipment safety and stability to save later operation and maintenance costs, etc. "Take the new 1MW photovoltaic inverter of Chint Power as an example. The maximum efficiency of 99%, the smaller installation volume increases the power density by 50%, and the floor space and transportation costs are saved by 50%. It also increases the number of single-string components, thereby reducing the total number of strings by 13% and the junction box by 8% compared with the 500kW inverter, effectively reducing the initial investment. In addition, with modular design, all modules have the function of controlling the entire inverter. Individual modules can be started according to the input power, rather than all modules running at any time, which prolongs the service life of the inverter module." Han Jiazhi introduced.
From "selling equipment" to "selling goals", this change cannot be ignored by companies.
Globalization——Implementing the principle of "localization"
"Although photovoltaics have not yet gotten rid of their dependence on subsidies, they will eventually move towards full marketization," said Han Jiazhi. Therefore, market layout is an important issue for enterprises.
China is undoubtedly the largest photovoltaic market. In 2016, the cumulative photovoltaic installed capacity reached 77.42GW. The "13th Five-Year Plan for Solar Energy Development" proposes that the photovoltaic power generation installed capacity will reach more than 105GW by the end of 2020, and this scale is not an upper limit but a guiding scale. It can be seen that in the next five years, the Chinese market will still be a must-fight market for core enterprises.
However, it is worth noting that my country's photovoltaic market has experienced a rapid growth, but is plagued by problems such as power curtailment and overcapacity. The takeoff of distributed photovoltaics is still constrained by funds and rooftop property rights, and the speed may slow down in the future. "Going global" is the inevitable way for photovoltaic companies to expand their territory.
Han Jiazhi told reporters that Chint Power has always been committed to both domestic and foreign markets. In 2015, exports accounted for 50.8%, which increased to 61% in 2016. "In 2015, the top three countries in terms of new installed capacity in the world were China, Japan, and the United States. In addition, the Indian market is expected to reach an average annual installed capacity of 10GW in the future. These will be the main international markets for photovoltaic companies in the future."
To explore the international market, Han Jiazhi reminded photovoltaic companies to adhere to the "localization" strategy, strictly abide by local standards from team building to after-sales service, especially product design, and take into account the environmental factors of each country, such as high temperature, high humidity, and high cold, on product requirements. In addition, they should do their homework in advance by investigating the political and social environment.
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