Smog becomes the driving force for accelerating the layout of new energy vehicles

Motor vehicle exhaust emissions have become the main source of pollution in China's urban "smog-ridden" predicament. In the future, the core of global automotive market competition will inevitably be the competition for new energy power...

Recently, smog pollution has swept across almost half of China, increasing the pressure to control smog. As one of the main sources of urban pollution, motor vehicle exhaust emissions have become an issue that must be taken seriously. How to accelerate the development of new energy vehicles has once again become the focus.

“Haze disaster” forces zero emissions

At present, traffic pollution has become an important source of particulate pollutants such as PM2.5 in Chinese cities. Haze weather occurs frequently, and the idea of ​​controlling vehicles and tackling haze has been widely mentioned. Compared with current restrictive administrative measures such as purchase control and traffic restrictions, the idea of ​​zero-emission new energy vehicles has become a hot topic.

Many industry insiders predict that by 2030, the car penetration rate in my country will be close to the level of developed countries. By then, my country's total oil demand will reach 600 million tons, and the pressure on security and pollution will be unprecedentedly huge.

Wang Zhe, a professor at the School of Automotive Engineering of Tongji University, told our reporter that the current energy bottleneck and environmental pollution have become the driving force forcing the accelerated layout of new energy vehicles. Especially in the current urban pollution, motor vehicle exhaust emissions are recognized as one of the largest sources of pollution, not only producing PM2.5, but also carbon monoxide accounts for 80%, hydrocarbons account for 56%, and nitrogen oxides account for 50%.

Zhu Jun, deputy director of the technical center of SAIC Passenger Vehicle Company and general manager of Jieneng Company, also told our reporter that some mature pure electric vehicles in China use the safest lithium iron phosphate battery system as a power source, which can achieve zero pollution and zero emissions. According to estimates, the E50 pure electric vehicle developed by SAIC can reduce carbon emissions by nearly 3 tons per year compared with ordinary household fuel cars.

New energy vehicles oriented towards energy conservation and emission reduction have become the commanding heights of the world's emerging industries. The United States, Japan, Europe and other countries have taken the lead and have formulated a number of national plans to promote the upgrading of the automobile industry.

Wang Zhe introduced that the United States launched the "EV-Everywhere" electric vehicle national innovation plan last year to increase support for key technologies such as high-performance lithium-ion battery materials, plug-in vehicle technology, and lightweight technology; Germany also released a national electric vehicle platform last year, investing funds at the national level for joint development; Japan has a relatively detailed plan for technical facilities to support the popularization of electric vehicles. A US research report stated that the compound annual growth rate of the global electric vehicle industry will reach 39% from 2013 to 2020.

Three major trends in new energy vehicles

At present, new energy vehicles are forming three major development trends internationally:

First, the hybrid vehicle market is gradually maturing. Toyota, for example, has sold more than 5 million hybrid vehicles worldwide. Hybrid vehicles have also achieved very good energy-saving and emission-reduction effects, reducing carbon dioxide emissions by about 34 million tons (equivalent to the amount absorbed by 11,000 square kilometers of forest in one year). General Motors, Ford, Volkswagen and BMW in Germany are all developing hybrid technologies and products.

Secondly, electric vehicles may catch up. All countries firmly support the development of electric vehicles, which have begun to enter the market. The top three electric vehicle sales in the United States in 2012 were GM's Chevrolet Volt, Toyota Prius plug-in hybrid and Nissan Leaf, with sales of more than 25,000 units last year. So far, the global sales of Leaf have reached more than 80,000 units. Nissan will add more than 700 fast charging stations in Japan in the second half of the year to further increase the number of Leaf vehicles.

Third, fuel cell new energy vehicles have entered the market. In 2008, Honda sedans were already produced and sold in the United States. General Motors is also at the global leading level in fuel cell vehicle technology and will start mass production in 2015. At the same time, it is also developing a new generation of fuel cell vehicles. The new generation of hydrogen fuel cells has halved its size and reduced its weight by 220 pounds. The amount of platinum used is only one-third, and the cost has been greatly reduced. In addition to General Motors and Honda, Toyota, Daimler, and Hyundai have also announced that they will mass produce fuel cell vehicles in 2015 or 2017, and Japan and Europe have begun to lay hydrogen refueling stations on a large scale.

Experts believe that in the face of international competition, China's new energy vehicles started not too late, and many technologies are still advanced, so we should seize the opportunity to "overtake on the curve". For example, in the field of commercial vehicles, China's new energy vehicle applications are in a leading position.

For example, the "battery + capacitor" dual-electric bus developed by Shanghai Ruihua New Energy Company has been put into commercial operation in many places in China, and hundreds of them will be used as buses in Shanghai one after another, with outstanding energy-saving and safety effects. Moreover, the heavy-duty container trucks using this technology route are about to roll off the production line, which can replace heavy-duty trucks with heavy pollution in the future, greatly improving the environmental protection level.

"We are already a global leader in commercial new energy vehicles with dual-electric technology, and have undergone years of testing under various climate and road conditions. Our safety and reliability can fully meet the conditions for full commercial use. Now, bus routes or official vehicles in many cities in China have begun to use this technology. China's advantages in this area are obvious. The country should speed up the implementation of preferential policies and increase support for the new energy of commercial vehicles, which has the most obvious benefits for the environment." Shuai Hongyuan, chairman of Ruihua Company, told our reporter.

How China is pressing on

As new energy vehicles in Europe, the United States and Japan begin to make breakthroughs, how can China's new energy vehicle industry, which started not too late, keep up with the times and occupy the high point of the industry to avoid repeating the dilemma of lagging behind in the traditional automobile field for a long time? In this regard, Chen Qingtai, a researcher at the Development Research Center of the State Council, believes that "my country must see the trend clearly and adjust its development strategy quickly."

First, in the face of alternative technologies, we should welcome new entrants. In this round of automotive power technology revolution, the first to shine was not from large manufacturers such as GM and Ford, nor in Detroit, but was born in Silicon Valley, represented by Tesla, which has no automotive background. We should encourage new entrants to "disrupt the situation" in the formulation of development policies.

Second, my country must find market opportunities for the development of new energy vehicles. The energy saving of electric vehicles, their own zero emissions, and the large-scale reduction of dependence on oil are all externalities. Especially for manufacturers, electric vehicles are immature and inconvenient, and there is no urgent demand for production, so there is a lack of internal motivation. Therefore, to get out of the dilemma of new energy vehicle industrialization, we can no longer rely solely on fiscal buyer subsidies, but we must increase the internal motivation of enterprises and encourage them to seek market opportunities.

Chen Qingtai said, "Tesla has attracted attention recently. One important point is that it targets wealthy people who care less about price and more about being the first to enjoy advanced technology, thus finding a new development path. From the perspective of China's development, the core of conventional development is to find market opportunities rather than relying on government subsidies for a long time."

Third, choose sustainable policy tools with leverage effects. The technology route, consumption habits, and especially the interest chain formed by fuel vehicles over more than a hundred years have huge inertia and social influence. The new energy vehicle policies of developed countries such as the United States, Germany, France, Italy, and Japan all focus on not weakening market competition, but amplifying the policy effects through the market.

Of course, a very important part of the development of new energy vehicles in my country is to improve the use environment. Among them, breaking through the convenience of charging has become the primary issue for new energy vehicles to enter ordinary households. Shanghai Electric Power has set up a special electric vehicle service company, specializing in intelligent charging and battery replacement service network operation and maintenance, battery leasing and other businesses. At present, 17 electric vehicle charging and replacement stations have been built in Shanghai, with a total of 16,000 charging and replacement services and a service mileage of more than 1.82 million kilometers.