Thin-film batteries have cost advantages and may seize more installed capacity

The long-awaited photovoltaic electricity price has finally been released. The National Development and Reform Commission issued a notice on August 1 to implement a unified national benchmark on-grid electricity price for non-bidding solar photovoltaic power generation projects. But in fact, the current domestic photovoltaic power generation cost is still above 1 yuan, and only a few thin-film battery companies can afford an on-grid electricity price below 1 yuan/kWh. Some analysts believe that due to the price advantage, it may be more beneficial to thin-film batteries with lower investment scale and cost. Does the unified photovoltaic electricity price bring good opportunities to thin-film batteries, which are in a disadvantaged position?

Policies force the market

According to the "Notice on Improving the Policy of Solar Photovoltaic Power Generation On-Grid Electricity Price" issued by the National Development and Reform Commission, the notice requires that the on-grid electricity price of solar photovoltaic power generation projects approved for construction before July 1, 2011, completed and put into operation on December 31, 2011, and for which the price has not yet been determined by the National Development and Reform Commission, shall be uniformly determined to be RMB 1.15 per kilowatt-hour (tax included). For solar photovoltaic power generation projects approved on or after July 1, 2011, and solar photovoltaic power generation projects approved before July 1, 2011 but not completed and put into operation as of December 31, 2011, except for Tibet, which still implements the on-grid electricity price of RMB 1.15 per kilowatt-hour, the on-grid electricity price of other provinces (regions and cities) shall be implemented at RMB 1 per kilowatt-hour.

But is this price too low? Some industry insiders questioned that the cost of grid-connected photovoltaic power is about 1.26 yuan/kWh, which is higher than the current benchmark electricity price level. If the differences in light and labor costs are further considered, the operating costs in eastern provinces may be even higher.

"It is not the case that the more subsidies, the better. Enterprises need to have pressure and innovation, and cannot rely too much on the government." Hu Zhaoguang, chief economist of the National Electric Power Economic Research Center, told Nandu reporters that the introduction of photovoltaic electricity prices is one of the deployments in the development of solar energy. "By forcing the market through policies, China's future electricity prices will be lower, because there is competition among enterprises and they will look for lower costs."

Professor Yin Zhongdong of North China Electric Power University said: "The pricing of photovoltaic power generation is a small part of promoting solar power generation. The government will make decisions based on the situation, constantly adjust policies, guide the market, and explore operating models."

Thin-film batteries have a promising future

How to reduce the cost of photovoltaic power generation? The key lies in battery technology. Currently, the solar cell technologies in commercial use mainly include: crystalline silicon (single/multicrystalline silicon) cells, thin film (amorphous silicon, CdTe, CIGS) cells and concentrator (GaAs) cells.

Among them, crystalline silicon cells are the current mainstream products due to their relatively mature technology and high conversion efficiency, and their market share still exceeds 80%. However, the production of polycrystalline silicon is widely used in the production of solar cells in my country, which has exposed many unpredictable problems. In fact, China's photovoltaic product output ranks first in the world, but 40% of the demand for polycrystalline silicon needs to rely on imports. In addition, the upstream links of the polycrystalline silicon industry have high technical barriers, large investments, long mass production time, and high market risks. At present, the country has raised the entry standards for the polycrystalline silicon industry and there are also restrictions on loans.

Compared with crystalline silicon cells, thin-film cells have greater room for improvement in efficiency and cost, and the rise in polysilicon prices will increase the cost advantage of thin-film cells. Many experts believe that in the future, the growth rate of thin-film battery production and sales will continue to be faster than that of crystalline silicon cells, and the proportion of thin-film battery in photovoltaic installed capacity will continue to increase.

It is reported that China has brand and scale advantages in amorphous silicon thin-film batteries, and amorphous silicon batteries are still the main direction for China to develop thin-film batteries. "Thin-film batteries, once they break through technical barriers and are supported by policies, will still have competitive advantages in the market," said Hu Gang, a professor at Jinan University. With the promotion of BIPV in China and the further maturity of amorphous silicon technology and CIGS technology, domestic thin-film batteries will face a new round of high development period with huge development space.

In Professor Yin Zhongdong's opinion, thin-film batteries have the characteristics of low cost and light weight, and have significant application advantages in the field of building integration. "They are more competitive and have a more obvious profit trend."