New energy vehicle stocks plummeted, and the "lithium economy era" is about to begin

The overall stock market has continued to fall this year, and the "new energy vehicle stocks" sector is also shrouded in gloom, and its decline has even exceeded that of some "traditional auto stocks." Industry insiders pointed out that the reason why new energy vehicle stocks fell sharply in the first half of this year was not only due to the overall market, but also because of the hype last year and the beginning of this year. People's views on new energy vehicle stocks are becoming more rational.

"China Bear" and "New Energy Bear"

When the A-share market rebounded strongly last year, people expected that this year's A-share market would reach 4,000 points. However, surprisingly, the A-share market fell terribly in the first half of this year, even worse than the Japanese stock market, and was once nicknamed the "China Bear" by foreign media.

Similar to the overall market, with the announcement of the high subsidies for private purchases of "electric vehicles" on June 1 last year, people were also full of expectations for new energy vehicle stocks. However, contrary to expectations, new energy vehicle stocks also fell in the first half of this year, among which Autex, Shanshan Shares, and Wanxiang Qianchao all fell by more than half. Dayang Electric Motor, which was 34.68 yuan per share at the beginning of the year, fell to only 19.27 yuan at its lowest point in the first half of this year, a drop of nearly half. People also feel like "new energy bears".

"The reason why new energy stocks did not see a sharp general rise in the first half of this year as expected last year, but instead saw a sharp general fall, is mainly due to the stock market's reaction to problems such as the imperfection of the entire new energy industry chain, the lack of technological breakthroughs, and overestimations of the development of electric vehicles," CITIC Securities analyst Chen Zheng told Auto Business News.

On June 1 last year, with the implementation of the "Notice on Launching a Pilot Program of Subsidies for Private Purchases of New Energy Vehicles," and as an emerging industry, investors were full of expectations for new energy vehicle stocks. However, over the past year, some problems in the development of new energy vehicles have continued to be exposed, including incomplete infrastructure, short driving range, and questionable safety issues... New energy vehicles have become "popular but not popular," and the hype about new energy vehicle stocks has gradually cooled.

Chen Zheng said: "Since the beginning of this year, the entire A-share market has made major adjustments to theme stocks that lack performance support and are overvalued. As for new energy vehicle stocks, last year people only saw the strong support of national policies and the bright prospects for the development of new energy vehicles, but did not realize that the development of the new energy vehicle industry also requires a gradual process. After people realized this, their views on the development of the new energy vehicle industry tended to be pragmatic, so the new energy vehicle stocks that were once overvalued have undergone a major downward correction."

Policy fatigue

After the government issued the "Notice on Piloting Subsidies for Private Purchases of New Energy Vehicles" last year, it has been widely reported in the media and the public that a more comprehensive and powerful "Energy-Saving and New Energy Vehicle Industry Plan (2011-2020)" is expected to be released soon. It is reported that this plan will make a comprehensive plan for the overall goals and details of the development of my country's new energy vehicle industry in the next ten years, making the development of the new energy vehicle industry more reasonable and more legal.

At the same time, the "Beijing Private Purchase of New Energy Vehicle Subsidy Pilot Program" has recently been approved by the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Science and Technology, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the National Development and Reform Commission and other four ministries and commissions, and will be officially released in the near future. The plan clearly shows that from the second half of this year, in Beijing, private purchases of new energy vehicles can be directly registered without participating in the lottery for passenger car quotas.

However, in the face of continued policy support, Chen Zheng believes that in the short term, even if national and local support policies continue to be introduced, new energy vehicle stocks will not see a sharp rise in share value.

"Last year, people's speculation on new energy vehicle stocks was stimulated by favorable national policies. However, even with these favorable policies this year, people are tired of the policies. After all, the new energy vehicle industry chain still has many problems to be solved. The recent short-term growth of some new energy stocks is only due to the pulling effect of the general rise of the market. Unless the new energy vehicle industry chain is gradually improved and there are major technological breakthroughs, new energy vehicle stocks will still lack support. Only a substantial improvement in the performance of related companies can be the fundamental guarantee for the growth of new energy vehicle stock value." Chen Zheng said.

The “lithium economy era” is about to begin

Although new energy vehicle stocks have fallen sharply this year, as Chen Zheng said, once there is a major breakthrough in new energy vehicle technology, it will surely drive new energy vehicle stocks higher. At this time, battery technology, a key factor restricting the development of electric vehicles, has become the focus of people's attention.

Batteries are the most critical part of new energy vehicles. Lithium-ion batteries are now widely used in electric vehicles. With the promotion and application of lithium batteries, companies with long-term competitive advantages in this field are expected to become good investment targets in the new energy vehicle industry. Reports that the cumulative production and sales of new energy vehicles in my country will reach 5 million by 2020 have drawn a broad development prospect for new energy vehicles, thus opening up high growth space for the lithium battery industry.

Great Wall Securities predicts that by 2015, hybrid vehicles and pure electric vehicles will become the main force of new energy vehicles. Taking into account the demand for new energy buses, sightseeing vehicles, yachts, etc., power lithium batteries will create a huge market and related industry opportunities will be significant.

Chen Zheng said: "The increase in demand for lithium batteries will inevitably drive the development of upstream related companies. Once power lithium batteries are widely used, Shanshan Co., Ltd., which is currently the largest supplier of lithium-ion battery comprehensive materials in my country, and Tibet Mining, which owns the largest lithium mining rights in the country, are expected to become the biggest beneficiaries."

However, industry insiders also pointed out that the lithium battery industry has high technological barriers, and its market competitiveness depends to a large extent on the accumulation of long-term technology development. When investing in lithium battery company stocks, on the one hand, we should pay attention to whether the industry has good news of major technological breakthroughs, and on the other hand, we should pay attention to the relatively mature and complete product system that has been formed.