Global semiconductor sales are set to decline, but storage sales grew 15% against the trend
Latest update time：2021-09-03 20:02
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Memory demand is expected to surge, driving global semiconductor sales growth this year (2020), but sales growth has been revised downward due to the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic.
The Japan Electronics and Information Technology Industries Association (JEITA) issued a press release on the 9th, pointing out that according to the latest forecast report released by the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics Association (WSTS), due to the surge in memory demand, global semiconductor sales this year will break away from the sharp decline in last year (2019) and turn to growth. However, due to the impact of the epidemic, the sales growth rate has been revised down from the previous (December 2019) annual growth estimate of 5.9% (US$433.027 billion) to 3.3% (US$425.966 billion). In 2019, global semiconductor sales fell by 12.0% year-on-year, the largest decline since 2001 (annual decline of 32.0%) after the collapse of the IT bubble.
WSTS stated that among the world's four major semiconductor markets in 2020, sales in the U.S. market are expected to increase by 12.8% year-on-year to US$88.694 billion, far better than the previous forecast of 7.0% year-on-year growth; Europe will decrease by 4.1% year-on-year to US$38.174 billion, lower than the previous forecast of 2.3% year-on-year growth; Asia-Pacific will increase by 2.6% year-on-year to US$264.697 billion, lower than the previous forecast of 6.5% year-on-year growth; Japan's market will decrease by 4.4% year-on-year to US$34.4 billion, lower than the previous forecast of 3.1% year-on-year growth, and in yen terms, it will decrease by 4.2% year-on-year to 3.7535 trillion yen (lower than the previous forecast of 1.7% year-on-year growth).
In terms of product categories, global sales of chips (ICs) in 2020 are expected to increase by 5.3% year-on-year to US$350.986 billion, slightly better than the previous forecast of 5.2% year-on-year growth; discrete components are expected to decrease by 6.6% year-on-year to US$22.309 billion, lower than the previous forecast of 3.8% year-on-year growth; optoelectronics such as LEDs are expected to decrease by 5.1% year-on-year to US$39.441 billion, lower than the previous forecast of 12.5% year-on-year growth; sensors are expected to decrease by 2.1% year-on-year to US$13.230 billion, lower than the previous forecast of 5.4% year-on-year growth.
Looking at IC details, memory sales are forecast to surge 15.0% to $122.358 billion in 2020, far better than the previous forecast of 4.1% year-over-year growth; Logic sales are forecast to increase 2.9% year-over-year to $109.668 billion, lower than the previous forecast of 6.5% year-over-year growth; Micro sales are forecast to increase 2.6% year-over-year to $68.151 billion, lower than the previous forecast of 4.9% year-over-year growth; and Analog sales are forecast to decrease 5.8% year-over-year to $50.808 billion, far lower than the previous forecast of 5.3% year-over-year growth.
Regarding the situation in 2021, WSTS pointed out that because it is estimated that the epidemic will be improved to a certain extent and the global economy will recover by then, the growth of the semiconductor market is expected to accelerate. Global semiconductor sales are expected to increase by 6.2% year-on-year to US$452.252 billion, of which memory sales are expected to increase by 11.2% year-on-year to US$136.076 billion.
Reuters reported on June 1 that due to the spread of the epidemic and the increase in demand for working from home, the demand for PCs and servers has risen. Therefore, South Korea's Samsung Electronics has begun to build a new NAND Flash production line at its factory in Pyeongtaek City, a suburb of Seoul, South Korea on June 1, and mass production is expected to begin in the second half of 2021. Samsung plans to increase production to meet the demand for 5G smartphones and other products. The amount of Samsung's investment in the new production line is unknown, but analysts estimate it to be 7 trillion to 8 trillion won.
The Nikkan Kogyo Shimbun reported on May 27 that although the Wuhan epidemic has caused a temporary slowdown in smartphone sales, the demand from data centers has grown as people avoid going out and the demand for video download services has increased sharply. In addition, working from home has boosted the demand for PCs. Therefore, even in the current epidemic, Kioxia (formerly known as Toshiba Memory), the world's second largest NAND Flash manufacturer, will continue to increase production investment as originally planned and build a new 3D NAND Flash plant "Plant 7" within its Yokkaichi factory.
The report pointed out that Kioxia has acquired land near the existing factory. After completing the land preparation, it will start the construction of the factory in December to build a new factory "Factory 7" to produce the most advanced 3D NAND Flash. It is scheduled to be completed in the summer of 2022. The total investment is estimated to be up to 300 billion yen, and Kioxia's partner Western Digital (WD) of the United States is expected to share the investment.
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