Apple's self-developed 5G baseband will be released next year, and the countdown to abandoning Qualcomm is coming

Latest update time：2024-07-25

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Apple has been working on its own cellular modems for years with limited success, but according to Ming-Chi Kuo, the company appears to be finally ready to move 5G chips in-house by 2025.

Guo Mingchi wrote in an article about X: Apple is accelerating its independence from Qualcomm. In 2025, two new iPhone models will abandon Qualcomm's 5G chips and adopt Apple's self-developed 5G chips: iPhone SE4 (first quarter of 2025) and the ultra-thin iPhone 17 (third quarter of 2025).

Apple plans to adopt its own 5G chips in phases. Instead of switching all new iPhone models to its proprietary modems in 2025, the company plans to use them in just two models: the iPhone SE 4, which will be released in the spring

And new ultra-thin iPhone 17 models will debut in the fall

Putting Apple's own 5G chips on just two devices means that the other new 2025 iPhones will still use Qualcomm's 5G chips, just like all modern iPhones to date. Not only will the iPhone 16 series launching this fall be equipped with Qualcomm modems, but the iPhone 17, iPhone 17 Pro, and iPhone 17 Pro Max launching in 2025 will also be equipped with Qualcomm modems.

If all goes well with Apple's mass production and sales of its own cellular chips, we'll undoubtedly see them added to the entire iPhone lineup in 2026 and beyond. But for now, only certain models will feature this new technology.

Earlier this year, Apple signed a new contract with Qualcomm to continue using its 5G modems until March 2027. However, the company could phase out Qualcomm in the meantime, and may even find other ways to fulfill the contract that don't involve the iPhone.

Apple is finally launching its own 5G modem, which is big news that has been years in the making. But its rollout strategy is curious.

It would make sense to initially add the new 5G chip to only some iPhone models. What's curious is which models Apple chooses. If the iPhone SE 4 gets the new internal modem in the spring, it would be particularly strange for the high-end iPhone 17 Pro and Pro Max to still stick with Qualcomm nearly half a year later.

Regardless, it will be interesting to see how the different modems perform against each other over time. Will Apple's in-house solution offer an advantage? Time will tell.

Apple's self-developed baseband has been repeatedly delayed

At the end of last year, Mark Gurman of Bloomberg wrote that Apple's self-developed baseband has been repeatedly delayed.

Mark Gurman said in the article that due to the complexity of replacing Qualcomm's complex components, Apple has invested billions of dollars in making modem chips for the iPhone, but progress has been slower.

Apple has pushed back its original plan to complete its in-house chip by 2024 and will now likely miss its goal of shipping the part by spring 2025, according to people familiar with the matter. That would push the launch back to at least late 2025 or early 2026 — the final year of Apple’s recently renewed contract with Qualcomm.

The latest hurdle reflects the daunting task Apple faces in designing its own modem, which lets phones connect to cellular networks to make calls and browse the web. The part must work seamlessly with hundreds of carriers around the world, in varying environments and conditions. And it must perform at least as well as the Qualcomm technology that helped pioneer the field.

The report further states that thousands of employees have been involved in the project since 2018, but Apple is still years away from solving the problem. The goal is to allow the modem to download data faster than existing technology. But people familiar with the matter believe that this is unlikely to be achieved based on the current development status.

A spokesman for Cupertino, California-based Apple declined to comment.

Qualcomm said last year that it would continue to supply chips to Apple for the next few years, a clear sign that Apple's internal efforts are struggling.

As noted above, with this announcement, the partnership, which was originally scheduled to end in 2024, has been extended to 2026. But the agreement simply confirmed what company insiders already knew: Apple's efforts to build its own technology have so far been disappointing.

It’s been a long and frustrating journey for the company. The first sign that Apple was trying to build its own modem came more than five years ago, when the iPhone maker began recruiting engineers in Qualcomm’s hometown of San Diego. A few months later, Apple announced plans to open a local office.

At the time, Apple and Qualcomm were in a legal dispute over modem royalties. But the two companies reached a settlement in 2019, with Qualcomm agreeing to supply 5G modem chips for the iPhone 12 in 2020 and beyond.

Just months after reaching a truce, Apple made clear it planned to eventually abandon Qualcomm altogether. It agreed to pay $1 billion for Intel Corp.’s struggling modem unit. Johny Srouji, Apple’s most senior executive in charge of hardware components, told a company-wide meeting that work on the modem was moving full steam ahead.

To help out the former Intel engineers acquired from the deal, Srouji hired hundreds of other wireless technology experts, including employees from Qualcomm and MediaTek. Apple originally believed it could put its own modem in the iPhone as early as 2024. Early in the project, code-named Sinope, Apple determined that its first device with the chip would be a refresh of the iPhone SE.

The phone was a low-budget model that was updated only sporadically. It didn’t draw as much attention or volume as the new iPhones released before the holidays. And, importantly, its buyers generally didn’t need cutting-edge technology. So putting the chip in the SE was seen as a safe bet for a company trying its hand at modems for the first time.

Still, the modem is one of the most important parts of a phone. If it doesn't work properly, calls can get dropped and users can lose internet connectivity. Shipping a faulty modem would be one of Tim Cook's biggest blunders as CEO.

That’s exactly the kind of trouble Apple wants to avoid. When the company renegotiated its deal with Qualcomm, plans for the 2024 iPhone SE were pushed back a year to 2025. Now, people familiar with the work believe the phone may not be released until a year later.

Qualcomm is expected to supply at least some of Apple's modem chips in 2026. The company said Qualcomm will account for about one-fifth of the components that year, and that number could be higher.

“We are aiming for a 20% share,” Qualcomm Chief Financial Officer Akash Palkhiwala told analysts late last year. “But if we get more than that, it will be a plus.”

Apple's plan is to eventually bring its in-house modems to iPads and smartwatches after the iPhone launches. These devices don't have as urgent need for cellular connectivity, so they aren't as important.

Apple's first modem will be a standalone chip, meaning it's a separate component inside the iPhone. But the company is already working on a follow-up system that would combine the modem with a so-called system-on-chip, saving space inside the device. The company is also designing its own wireless and Bluetooth semiconductors that could replace Broadcom's components in the coming years, but that project has also run into some problems, according to Bloomberg.

Inside the tech giant, the modem project is considered one of the company's biggest.

It was a cross-functional project involving the hardware technology group led by Mr. Srouji and the independent hardware engineering division, as well as the company’s software engineering division, which helped write the code for the modem. Mr. Srouji’s lead on the project was longtime chip executive Zongjian Chen.

As of now, Apple's modems are still in the early stages of development - those involved believe that the initial versions may lag competitors by years. For example, at least one version of the first modem under development does not support the millimeter wave (mmWave) standard. The technology is mainly promoted by Verizon Communications Inc. and can achieve speeds five times faster than regular 5G connections. Current iPhones support the feature. But a final decision on whether to include the technology in Apple components has not yet been made.

A major development hurdle involved the software used to power the modem, some of which was acquired from Intel. People involved in the project said the Intel code wasn't up to the task and much of it had to be rewritten from scratch. When Apple engineers tried to add new features, existing ones would break and the modem wouldn't work properly.

There's still a long testing phase ahead. So far, the company has trialed the modem in current iPhones, tested the technology at Apple offices and in mobile test vehicles driving around Silicon Valley.

But unlike computer processors, modems need to be evaluated with hundreds of different wireless carriers. Apple is able to simulate those connections using its own testing centers, but decades of real-world trials have helped Qualcomm develop modems that are considered industry-leading.

“It was clearly a difficult project from the beginning,” said another person familiar with the matter. “Why we thought we could take over a failed project from Intel and make it a success is a mystery.”

Another challenge: The hardware engineering group is stretched thin working on so many different projects, others said. And the defections make it harder for Apple to fix engineering problems.

The company will also have to be careful not to infringe on Qualcomm’s patents. Currently, Apple pays the chip developer about $9 for each iPhone that uses its technology. The company could still have to pay if the new modem is found to infringe Qualcomm’s patents.

With that in mind, engineers were careful to avoid using Qualcomm's proprietary technology and development techniques, an arrangement that slowed progress on the work. Apple's internal modem team is intentionally separate from the rest of the team that integrates Qualcomm chips into existing and recent products.

That added extra stress to an already difficult process. “We were afraid of getting sued,” said one of the people familiar with the matter.

Reference Links

https://9to5mac.com/2024/07/24/kuo-apple-set-to-replace-qualcomm-with-in-house-5g-chips-in-two-2025-iphones

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