Big changes in the car industry
Latest update time：2021-09-01 20:24
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Original by Shenrancaijing
Author | Liming
Editor | Wei Jia
Halfway through 2021, the battle in the new energy vehicle industry has come to an end.
In the past six months, many major events have happened in the automotive industry, such as Tesla being besieged and becoming the public enemy, the "three idiots in car manufacturing" being renamed "NIO, Xiaopeng and Li Auto", the battery leader CATL having a market value of over one trillion yuan, technology giants such as Lei Jun and Zhou Hongyi entering the market, and Huawei's actions in the car manufacturing industry have also become more intensive.
Compared with the situation a year ago, the current automobile manufacturing industry has changed dramatically.
Shenran takes stock of the major events in the new car industry in the first half of 2021 to see what stage the industry has reached in the past six months and which players are more capable.
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Key points:
1. Tesla suffered a Waterloo in China, while NIO, Xpeng and Li Auto experienced explosive sales in the first half of the year. New forces in the second echelon, such as Nezha and Leapmotor, are accelerating.
2. Traditional car companies such as BYD, Great Wall, Geely, SAIC, and GAC are still able to compete, and models such as BYD Han, Ora, Zeekr, and Hongguang MINI are attracting a lot of attention.
3. The technology giants took different approaches. Huawei reiterated that it would not build complete vehicles, Xiaomi invested heavily in building cars, and 360 invested in Nezha Auto, all wanting to get a piece of the hot market.
4. Power batteries are still the most core components of electric vehicles, and production capacity is in short supply. Automakers have joined forces to put CATL on the iron throne of batteries.
5. Funding is no longer the biggest factor restricting the development of new car-making forces. The battle for comprehensive capabilities of new car-making has officially begun, with the competition for talent, channels and time.
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Tesla fell, and the "three idiots" were full
The biggest contrast in the first half of the year is that Tesla fell from grace, leaving many people with an impression of "unsafety", but
domestic brands represented by Weilai, Xiaopeng, and Ideal rose, and sales hit new highs
.
In terms of sales, before the "brake failure" rights protection incident in April, Tesla's sales in China continued to rise. In March, 35,478 vehicles were delivered, setting a historical record, but in April it plummeted 67% to 11,671 vehicles. It rebounded to 21,936 vehicles in May and 28,138 vehicles in June, but still did not return to the level of March.
Tesla China's first half delivery data source: China Passenger Car Association
In terms of product structure,
Tesla is making Model Y another hit model after Model 3.
Tesla's domestically produced Model Y officially started delivery in January this year, and the market feedback was good. The delivery volume in May exceeded that of Model 3.
In the past, Weilai, Xiaopeng, and Ideal were called the "three fools" in car manufacturing, which seemed like brothers in distress. However, judging from the development situation in the first half of this year, the "three fools" have completely got on the right track and can compete with Tesla together. Therefore, the industry began to call them "Wei, Xiaopeng, and Li Auto".
Delivery volume of NIO, XOL and Li Auto in the first half of 2021
As can be seen from the chart, in the first half of this year, NIO's new car delivery volume averaged about 7,000 units per month, while Xpeng and Li Auto delivered about 5,000 units per month. This is the best level in history, and this is even after the off-season in the first quarter.
It is particularly worth mentioning that in June, NIO delivered 8,083 vehicles, Xpeng delivered 6,565 vehicles, and Li Auto delivered 7,713 vehicles, which is the highest monthly record for these three companies since their inception. According to this trend, the cumulative delivery volume of NIO, Xpeng and Li Auto in the second half of the year should reach a new high.
This delivery data has several meanings
. First, NIO has proved that it can sell in high-end markets above RMB 400,000. Second, Xpeng has proved that it can compete well in the most competitive market of RMB 200,000. Third, Ideal has proved that the extended-range technology route is feasible.
The first half of the year was the highlight moment for NIO, Xiaopeng and Li Auto, but that doesn’t mean they can sit back and relax. The second-tier new car-making forces are accelerating. Among them, the most representative ones are Nezha and Leapmotor.
Nezha Auto started to make efforts in the third quarter of last year, and delivered more than 2,000 vehicles for the first time in September of that year, and then stabilized at more than 2,000 vehicles. In April this year, it exceeded 4,000 vehicles, and in June it exceeded 5,000 vehicles. In terms of monthly delivery volume, Nezha was very close to Xiaopeng in June, and the gap narrowed to 1,427 vehicles.
Leapmotor started to increase its sales in April this year, with monthly deliveries exceeding 2,000 for the first time, exceeding 3,000 in May, and approaching 4,000 in June. Although there is still a gap with the first echelon, the growth rate is very fast.
Nezha and Leapmotor, like Wei, Xiao, and Li, were all established in the wave of car manufacturing around 2015 and have been developing into new car manufacturing forces ever since. However, in comparison,
their development
speed
, brand reputation, and scale are not as good as Wei, Xiao, and Li
, so they can only be classified as the second echelon. But in the future, they may have a chance to get ahead.
Traditional car companies counterattack, and technology giants exert their strength
Another major change in the first half of the year is that the counterattack speed of traditional car companies is quite astonishing.
During the Shanghai Auto Show in April,
the products that impressed the outside world the most were not NIO or Xpeng, but the two poles - Arcfox and Zeekr
.
Polar Fox is a high-end brand under BAIC New Energy. It released four models on the eve of the opening of the Shanghai Auto Show, with the highest price approaching 350,000 yuan. At that time, a video of Polar Fox Alpha S Huawei HI version driving long distances in complex urban road conditions attracted a lot of attention and discussion online. The cooperation with Huawei has also greatly increased the outside world's attention to Polar Fox.
Zeekr is a new high-end new energy brand launched by Geely. It also released a new car, Zeekr 001, before the opening of the Shanghai Auto Show. The exterior design of this car has been widely discussed online. In addition, Geely has previously launched new energy brands Lynk & Co and Polestar.
BAIC and Geely are both traditional automakers. In the new energy vehicle market, their approaches are somewhat similar: high-end product positioning, independent brands, using new brands to enter new markets, and getting rid of the old impressions of old brands. Although these two products have not yet been delivered on a large scale, judging from the attention in the industry, the two traditional automakers should not be making a small move this time.
Compared with BAIC and Geely, BYD, Great Wall, Chery, SAIC and GAC, the five traditional automakers, are taking bigger and faster steps. Judging from the sales of a single model, traditional automakers have more advantages than new car-making forces.
According to the China Passenger Car Association, in January this year, the top five new energy vehicle models
(excluding Tesla)
were Hongguang MINI, BYD Han EV, Chery eQ, GAC Aion Aion S, and Great Wall Ora R1. All of them are traditional car companies, and new forces did not make it into the top five.
Throughout the first half of the year, the top five positions in the monthly sales list were basically occupied by these five models, and occasionally Ideal ONE and Changan Benben EV could squeeze into the top five
.
In terms of sales, the new energy vehicle track is no longer the home turf of NIO, Xpeng and Ideal. These new brands independently launched by traditional car companies are quite powerful. New car manufacturing has entered the fierce Warring States Period from the relatively peaceful Spring and Autumn Period.
In addition, the fact that technology giants have entered the car manufacturing industry is also a highlight of the first half of the year. The most popular ones are
Huawei, Baidu, and Xiaomi
.
Huawei established its smart car solution business unit as early as 2019, but the outside world has little awareness of it. This year, Huawei has cooperated more with car companies. For example, Alpha uses Huawei's technology, and Huawei gets a share of the revenue from the models. In addition, Huawei has also started selling cars. The first car is the Seres Huawei Smart Selection SF5, which was launched in Huawei's offline flagship stores in April this year.
Baidu, which has been positioning itself as an "autonomous driving platform supplier", also officially announced in January this year that it would build cars and set up a new company, Jidu, with Geely. Xiaomi even announced in March this year that it would build cars, planning to invest 10 billion yuan in the first phase and 10 billion US dollars in the next ten years.
Recently, Zhou Hongyi, who had been low-key for a long time, suddenly became active, accepting media interviews and expressing various views related to car manufacturing. Previously, 360 invested in Nezha Auto.
Traditional car companies have launched a major counterattack, and technology giants have made frequent efforts, all of which have been concentrated in the past six months.
Battery giants take the lead, autonomous driving shines
There were two major shortages in the first half of the year: a shortage of chips and a shortage of batteries, both of
which limited the production capacity of new energy vehicle companies. In particular, batteries, the core components of new energy vehicles, directly affect the vehicle's range, power, price, and safety.
Almost all mainstream car manufacturers in China will visit the headquarters of power battery giant CATL to pay a visit, because there is a long queue for good batteries.
On May 31, CATL's market value exceeded 1 trillion yuan, becoming the first trillion-yuan company on the ChiNext. On June 29, CATL's stock price continued to rise, with a market value of more than 1.2 trillion yuan, surpassing Ping An of China and taking the title of "No. 1 in Shenzhen Stock Exchange". At the end of the first half of the year, CATL made history.
According to data from market research firm SNE Research, CATL supplied the largest number of electric vehicle batteries in the world from January to May this year, accounting for 31.2% of the global market share, ranking first in the world. LG Energy and Panasonic ranked second and third, accounting for 23.1% and 14.7% respectively.
Another major event that happened in the first half of the year was that
the output of lithium iron phosphate batteries exceeded that of ternary lithium batteries for the first time in several years
. In the first five months of 2021, the output share of ternary lithium batteries dropped to 49.6%, while the output share of lithium iron phosphate batteries rose to 50.3%.
The background of this change is that more car companies have begun to use lithium iron phosphate batteries. In the second half of last year, Tesla began to use lithium iron phosphate batteries from CATL, and Xiaopeng also launched a model equipped with lithium iron phosphate batteries for the first time in the first half of this year.
Just like car manufacturing, the war in power batteries is also surging and the industry landscape is changing rapidly.
Batteries only solve the problem of how vehicles are driven. As battery performance continues to improve, capital has begun to invest more resources in the war of intelligence - autonomous driving.
Since the beginning of this year,
the autonomous driving industry has set off a financing wave
. In the past June alone, more than a dozen autonomous driving companies have completed financing. On June 8, two autonomous driving companies simultaneously announced the completion of a new round of financing. In mid-April, TuSimple landed on the Nasdaq and won the title of "the world's first autonomous driving stock", pushing the industry's enthusiasm forward one step further.
While startups are intensively raising funds, giants are also accelerating their layout.
In April this year, Huawei's rotating chairman Xu Zhijun reiterated that Huawei would not build complete vehicles, but would become an autonomous driving supplier. According to Huawei's vision, China's annual automobile sales exceed 20 million vehicles, and "an average annual revenue of 10,000 yuan per vehicle is enough." Subsequently, Huawei released a series of autonomous driving related products, hoping to cooperate with car companies to realize the deployment of autonomous driving systems.
Baidu's Apollo project, which it has invested heavily in over the past few years, has finally ushered in a real boom. Didi's autonomous driving also received financing this year, becoming a very important card in Didi's hand.
Nowadays, no car company will deny the importance of autonomous driving technology. However,
the choice facing car companies is whether to
develop the entire stack in-house or to cooperate with external parties
.
Hence, the “soul debate” between SAIC and Huawei in early July - SAIC said it could not accept cooperating with third-party companies like Huawei on autonomous driving, because in this case, the third party would become the soul and SAIC would become the body.
How to choose the way to enter the field of autonomous driving will be an issue that car companies will have to focus on in the next six months.
Lack of money is no longer a major drawback.
Grabbing people, channels and time is
the key.
More than a year ago, funding issues were still a problem that plagued many new car manufacturers, but now, lack of money is no longer a major problem.
According to financial reports, at the end of the first quarter of this year, NIO, Xpeng, and Li Auto had 28.6 billion yuan, 31.1 billion yuan, and 6.1 billion yuan in cash in their accounts, respectively. On July 7, Xpeng went public on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and raised more than HK$15 billion. In addition, NIO, Xpeng, and Li Auto can raise additional funds at any time, so funding is no longer a big problem.
Once car companies have money, they start competing for people, channels, and more importantly, time
.
According to BOSS Zhipin data, the number of job openings and the interest of job seekers in Tesla, NIO, Li Auto, Xpeng and other car manufacturers have continued to rise this year. Among them, the demand for positions such as autonomous driving R&D, smart cockpit design, software engineers, sales, and user operations has increased by more than 1.8 times year-on-year.
New energy vehicles are a new species, and the talent they need is not limited to the automotive industry, but also involves the Internet, artificial intelligence, offline stores, etc., and the demand is more diverse. This means that the competitors of new car companies in the competition for talent are not only car companies, but also major technology companies.
Source: "Revelation of New Energy Vehicle Talents"
According to Maimai's "Revelation of New Energy Vehicle Talents", the top three technology companies that new energy vehicle talents are most interested in are ByteDance, Huawei, and Meituan. "For HR in car companies, competing with Internet technology giants for talent requires a new approach."
New energy vehicles also bring a new channel system
. Most new car manufacturers adopt a self-operated model in terms of channels, bypassing 4S stores and reaching users directly through offline experience stores. In the first half of the year, major new car manufacturers accelerated the opening of stores.
Not only Wei, Xiaoli, and Li Auto, but also players such as Jihu, Lantu, and Nezha have joined the battle. Jihu Space, Lantu Space, and Nezha Experience Center are called differently, but they are basically similar models. Most of these stores are opened in shopping malls in the city, unlike the 4S stores in the past which were mostly located in remote suburbs, so the competition for locations around shopping malls has intensified.
At this stage of the development of new car manufacturing, the competition among major car companies is no longer a single-dimensional competition. Whether it is batteries or autonomous driving technology, a single capability is not enough for car companies to win the competition.
The competition of all-round comprehensive capabilities such as capital, technology, talents, and channels will be the next direction
.
Time will be an important variable in determining the direction of the war.
Players in the new car industry are all looking ahead to 2025. According to the "New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Plan (2021-2035)", by 2025, the sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles in my country will reach 20%.
In addition, according to the "Intelligent Vehicle Innovation and Development Strategy" jointly issued by the National Development and Reform Commission and 11 other departments, by 2025, autonomous driving intelligent vehicles will achieve large-scale production and market application in specific environments. Therefore, many car companies use 2025 as the timeline when formulating strategic goals.
2025 will be a watershed year, the moment that truly determines victory or defeat.
2021 is the first year of this new five-year period. The first half of the first year has ended, and the story of the second half has just begun. Just a few days into July, Tesla launched a new version of the Model Y, with a price cut of more than 70,000 yuan, directly starting the war in the second half of the year.
Who will have the last laugh in this marathon will depend on their performance in the future.
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