New energy vehicle safety becomes an accelerator of industry reshuffle

■Market concentration continues to increase

The "Blue Book" shows that the number of power battery companies in my country reached its peak in 2015, with a total of 240 companies, and has declined year by year since then. In 2016, there were 171 companies, in 2017, there were 104 companies, and in 2018, there were 93 remaining power battery companies in my country. Among the 93 companies, the top 20 companies accounted for more than 92% of the supporting volume. From further breakdown of the data, we can see that the market share of companies ranked 1st to 2nd is more than 61%, the market share of companies ranked 3rd to 10th is 22%, and the market share of companies ranked 11th to 20th is only 9%. Among all power battery companies, CATL is the largest, with a market share of 41%, supporting more than 60 commercial vehicle companies and 30 passenger car companies. From the perspective of supporting volume, in 2018, there were 35 single enterprises with supporting volume of more than 100 million Wh, accounting for 55.7 billion Wh, accounting for 98%. The remaining 58 companies accounted for only 2%, and are facing further challenges. The danger of being eliminated.

In addition, after subsidies were withdrawn, lithium iron phosphate batteries saw a resurgence. In 2018, the installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate batteries was 22.19GWh, a year-on-year increase of 23.51%. In the passenger car market, lithium iron phosphate batteries have an absolute advantage, accounting for 71.75% of the total supply. Passenger cars are mainly equipped with ternary batteries. With the rapid growth in sales of new energy passenger vehicles in my country, the installed capacity of ternary batteries has increased significantly, with the installed capacity in 2018 reaching 33.1GWh.

The "Blue Book" pointed out that in addition to cost factors, the increasing energy density is also an important reason for the resurgence of lithium iron phosphate batteries. At present, the energy density of high-level lithium iron phosphate batteries can reach 190Wh/kg, and the energy density of ternary lithium batteries can reach 270Wh/kg.

At an industry conference not long ago, Dong Yang, first vice president of the World Automobile Organization, said that the increasing concentration of the power battery market will help end the fragmentation and poor situation of my country's power battery market, enhance the overall competitiveness of my country's power battery industry, and promote The new energy automobile industry develops healthily. However, whether the market concentration is suitable for 2 to 3 power battery companies also needs to be viewed objectively.

Regarding the reasons for the industry reshuffle, experts attending the meeting generally believed that the reshuffle in the power battery market was the result of a combination of factors. First of all, some companies blindly expand production capacity, fail to improve their R&D capabilities, lack technology accumulation, and have a single product system. As the market iteration cycle accelerates, companies have encountered the problem that their technical level cannot keep up with the development situation; secondly, automobile companies generally have the problem of relatively long billing periods for supporting equipment. Some relatively small power battery companies have experienced greater financial pressure, and some companies have even had their capital chains broken, unable to escape the fate of being eliminated; thirdly, the price of power battery raw materials continues to rise, and car companies have cut prices every year. requirements, leading to a general decline in net and gross profits of power batteries. It is difficult for smaller power battery companies to realize the advantages of economies of scale and face the risk of being eliminated by the market.

■Frequent safety accidents accelerate industry reshuffle

In addition to the major reshuffle of the industry, an important proposition for the current development of the power battery industry is safety.

The safety of new energy vehicles has always been widely concerned. A set of data related to product safety shared by Wang Zhenpo, secretary-general of the National New Energy Vehicle Big Data Alliance, shows that the combustion accident rate of new energy vehicles in my country is 0.918/10,000 vehicles. The "Blue Book" shows that among the safety accidents of new energy vehicles in my country in 2018, passenger cars accounted for the largest proportion, accounting for 57%, passenger cars accounted for 24%, and special vehicles accounted for 19%. In the field of new energy passenger vehicles, which accounts for a large proportion of safety accidents, since most vehicles are equipped with ternary lithium batteries, some experts in the industry have also questioned the safety of ternary lithium batteries.

Analyzing the characteristics of new energy vehicle safety accidents, the "Blue Book" believes that safety accidents of new energy vehicles in 2018 are mainly reflected in four aspects. First, battery system failures account for a large proportion, accounting for 47%; second, electronic and electrical failures account for 35%; third, accidents caused by mechanical impact, account for 12%; fourth, single battery failures, The proportion is 18%, of which 6% have poor battery core consistency, 3% have electrolyte leakage, and 9% have short circuits or other unknown reasons.

The "Blue Book" believes that there are many reasons for the safety accidents of new energy vehicles in my country. For example, some companies have neglected the quality and safety of new energy vehicle products, which is specifically reflected in the insufficient testing and verification of power battery products of some companies. "The energy density of my country's power batteries continues to increase, resulting in accelerated product iteration cycles. Some products have not been fully verified before being installed in vehicles, posing safety risks." "Blue Book" pointed out.

The "Blue Book" emphasizes that safety is the lifeline of an enterprise, and it is also a commitment to customers' lives and properties. Vehicle companies will also abandon the use of battery brands that have experienced many safety accidents and instead seek battery products with better safety, thus accelerating the reshuffle of the power battery market.

■Pay attention to the 4 major pain points in the industry and safety issues cannot be ignored

Data shows that there were only 40 power battery companies in my country in 2012. It grew rapidly to 240 in 2015. Long Huijin, chairman and president of Tafel New Energy Technology Group, believes that with the advent of the new energy vehicle era in my country, a large number of consumer battery companies have entered the field of power battery production, bringing great chaos to the industry. He believes that my country's new energy vehicle safety accidents frequently occur due to four pain points in the industry. The most important among them is that the R&D and industrialization of electric vehicles and supporting industries in my country are developing rapidly, and the formulation and revision work cycle of relevant standards is relatively long. The existing standard system does not fully cover some new technologies and new products, and there are Some products or certain technical fields lack standards or the standards cannot meet the development needs of the industry. At the same time, there are also situations where the formulation and revision of standards cannot keep up with the development needs of the industry. Obviously, imperfect standards will cause some supporting batteries to not necessarily meet the requirements for automotive grade power batteries.

The lack of specifications in power battery design is another pain point in the industry. A common phenomenon can be seen in the new energy vehicle power battery industry: different companies have different design ideas, and even the same company's design ideas are often revised repeatedly, which will cause a major lack of battery performance.

The third pain point is the poor consistency of the manufacturing process. Long Huijin pointed out that the manufacturing process of industrial batteries is complex and has many processes. Each process will affect the performance of the power battery. However, few power battery manufacturers can accurately control the details of each process to achieve a high degree of consistency. sex.

The fourth pain point is the low level of automation in power battery production. This results in a relatively low first-time success rate in power battery manufacturing, and it is difficult to achieve online automatic testing and quality tracking.

Long Huijin pointed out that at present, industry standards are ranked in order of requirements for military industry, automobile, industry, and consumer electronics. With the development of IT technology, a large number of electronic products require the use of consumer batteries, and the information age has spawned a number of consumer battery companies. When the era of new energy vehicles comes, a large number of consumer battery companies have transformed into power batteries, which has led to excess low-end production capacity and shortage of high-end production capacity in the domestic power battery market.