The integrated circuit industry is about to usher in a good year

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The integrated circuit industry is about to usher in a good year [Copy link]

The integrated circuit industry is about to usher in a good year Source: Daily Economic News 2006-09-13 09:02

1. The industry continues to grow rapidly. According to the research of IDG, a well-known market research organization, the sales of China's consumer electronics market reached 34.75 billion US dollars last year and are expected to exceed 60 billion US dollars this year. The growth of the consumer electronics market mainly comes from the sub-markets of traditional products and digital products, such as flat-screen TVs, MP3, MP4, digital cameras, digital video cameras, mobile storage, etc. China has become the world's second largest consumer electronics market after the United States. From 2005 to 2010, China's consumer electronics market will maintain a relatively fast growth. When the economy grows rapidly, people spend more on consumer electronics. The logic of the consumer electronics industry is that new products generate new demands. In the absence of killer new products in the short term, the driving force for industry growth lies in the improvement of the penetration rate of existing products and the upgrading of these products themselves. 2. Changes in inventory levels Since 2005, the semiconductor inventory level has further declined, from the normal industry inventory level of 615 million US dollars in the second quarter to 550 million US dollars in the third quarter, accounting for 0.99% of quarterly sales revenue. The inventory survey index released by Gartner on February 16 showed that, contrary to the general market expectations, the inventory level in the semiconductor supply chain further declined in the fourth quarter. On the one hand, this shows that the relevant manufacturers are still cautious and sales are still strong. On the other hand, it also means that the future market growth will be more stable and healthy. To a large extent, the judgment of inventory level, like a buoy, has become the most direct basis for judging the prosperity of the industry. 3. Changes in investment level In terms of capacity utilization, according to Advanced Forecasting's survey, the capacity utilization rate of the high-end field of the IC industry reached 99% in 2005, which is rare in history. Combined with the inventory level and the growth of downstream demand, there is no sign of overheating. According to IC Insights's forecast, the investment amount in 2006 will increase by 10% and the sales revenue will increase by 10%. Compared with the past situation, investment is still very cautious. In addition, the B/B value began to exceed 1 in the first quarter, indicating that semiconductor manufacturers' doubts about the future market growth have begun to disappear, and the motivation to increase equipment and expand production capacity is obvious. From the analysis of inventory and investment levels, we have reason to be relatively optimistic about the development of the industry in the future. Excerpted from: Daily Economic News