Hybrid vehicles are making inroads into the new energy vehicle market. Can pure electric vehicles keep up?

In the era of subsidies for new energy vehicles, hybrid vehicles were basically suppressed in China. However, with the withdrawal of subsidies, hybrid vehicles are gaining more and more popularity and their market share is also expanding.

This is a challenge that pure electric drive (pure electric, plug-in hybrid, extended-range) has to face, but the situation is not optimistic.

While the overall domestic auto market is in a downturn, the sales of hybrid vehicles have maintained a growth trend, with hybrid models represented by Toyota and Honda showing good growth momentum. The market share of hybrid models is also slowly climbing. According to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, as of July 2019, the sales of ordinary hybrid vehicles accounted for 0.74% of the market, compared with 0.67% last year. However, new energy vehicles saw a "double decline" in sales in July, both year-on-year and month-on-month.

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i-mmd system schematic

On August 26, the National Engineering Laboratory for Electric Vehicles of Beijing Institute of Technology held a press conference at the school and released an evaluation report on the Dongfeng Honda i-MMD hybrid system.

Through this evaluation, we can get a glimpse of the hybrid technology strength of Honda, one of the representative hybrid car companies. In addition, we also review the market performance of Toyota and Honda's hybrid cars and analyze their future market performance. From this, we may also know what companies that insist on pure electric drive routes should learn from the hybrid technology route? How to deal with the challenges of the hybrid technology route?

Technical performance: save 40% to 50% fuel!

BIT selected both the hybrid and fuel versions of the compact SUV CR-V and the mid-size sedan INSPIRE for this evaluation. By setting the same goal for two models with the same configuration and different power, the performance of the hybrid vehicle and the traditional fuel vehicle were compared.

The most outstanding thing is that hybrid vehicles have obvious fuel-saving effects. Sun Chao, an associate professor at Beijing Institute of Technology, said that compared with the fuel version, the hybrid CR-V has a 41.78% improvement in comprehensive fuel-saving, and the hybrid INSPIRE has a 43.77% improvement in comprehensive fuel-saving, and the urban fuel-saving has reached an astonishing 58.53%.

This shows that the worse the working conditions, the better the i-MMD performance, as the saying goes "the more congested the road, the more fuel efficient it is".

Fuel consumption comparison between hybrid and fuel versions

Due to the hybrid drive, the acceleration performance of hybrid vehicles is also better than that of the same fuel vehicle. Sun Chao introduced that Honda's i-MMD hybrid system is matched with a permanent magnet synchronous motor with a maximum torque of 315Nm, coupled with an engine with a maximum torque of 175Nm, which makes it accelerate faster from 0 to 100km/h. Taking INSPIRE as an example, when the air conditioner is turned off, the acceleration of 40, 60, and 100 kilometers is improved by 4.86%, 7.21%, and 10.6% respectively compared with the fuel version.

Specific data, INSPIRE hybrid 0-100km/h acceleration is completed in 8.18 seconds, while the fuel version is actually measured in 9.15 seconds.

INSPIRE hybrid and fuel version acceleration data

Reliability is an important indicator for automobiles. In Sun Chao's opinion, the simpler and smoother the configuration, the higher the mechanical durability. i-MMD meets this characteristic. It adopts a battery pack design and layout that is easier to control, ensuring a high degree of safety and stability.

Tests are still needed to prove the point. By comparing the fuel consumption of the new and old cars, it is found that a hybrid CR-V with a cumulative mileage of 20,000 kilometers still maintains a fuel consumption level similar to or even lower than that of a new car. Data shows that the actual fuel consumption of the new car is 5.87L per 100 kilometers, while the fuel consumption of the CR-V with a driving distance of 20,000 kilometers is only 5.44L. This indirectly confirms the durability and reliability of the i-MMD hybrid system.

Market performance: Toyota and Toyota lead the rapid growth of hybrid vehicles

Perhaps it is because the early technology and production capacity are in place and market recognition has also increased. When the entire domestic auto market is in a downward channel recently, hybrid models still maintain a significant year-on-year and month-on-month growth.

According to data from the China Passenger Car Association, in July 2019, sales of ordinary hybrid passenger cars were about 22,500 units, a year-on-year increase of 37% and a month-on-month increase of 12%; the cumulative increase in the first seven months was 23%.

Overall, the most popular hybrid models on the market are from Toyota and Honda. Among them, the fastest month-on-month growth is the Guangzhou Toyota-produced Levin, with a total sales of 4,232 units in July, a month-on-month increase of 62% and a year-on-year increase of 22%.

Another model with outstanding growth is the Accord produced by Guangzhou Honda, with sales of 4,172 units in July, a year-on-year increase of 21,858%, a month-on-month increase of 45%, and a cumulative increase of 150% in the first seven months.

Sales volume of some major hybrid models (unit: vehicle)

Source: China Passenger Car Association

However, the data also shows that the models with higher sales are currently from Toyota and Honda. Since there are only a limited number of car companies producing hybrid models, there are not many models to choose from.

Future performance: Hybrid share still has room to rise

The hybrid car market still has room for improvement. As of July this year, the proportion of hybrid models in China was still less than 1%, while the market share of hybrid models in the United States has reached 2%-3%. If the United States is used as a reference, China's hybrid models still have room for growth.

Source: wikipedia

In Sun Chao's opinion, if more and more domestic companies produce hybrid models, the number of optional models will increase, and then the number of optional models for consumers will increase, and the market share will increase.

In addition to the increase in models, another important factor that determines the market space is cost-effectiveness. At present, hybrid models have made great progress. Take the Accord as an example. The entry-level price of the tenth-generation Accord is 199,800 yuan, which is not much higher than the same model of fuel-powered cars. The cost-effectiveness has been greatly improved.

Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the China Passenger Car Association, believes that hybrid vehicles are already quite cost-effective. "For taxi drivers, the fuel-saving effect in the city is very good. In places where charging facilities are not convenient, hybrid models are still very popular."

Sun Chao believes that there is room for further price cuts for hybrid models. "Toyota and Honda are using their hybrid configurations on multiple models to spread costs. After large-scale mass production forms a family system in the future, costs will drop a lot."

Sun Chao, Associate Professor of Beijing Institute of Technology

At present, the fuel-saving advantage of hybrid vehicles has a certain appeal to taxi drivers. In addition, in cities where there is a separate lottery for energy-saving vehicles, the winning rate of hybrid vehicles is much higher than that of fuel vehicles, making them the first choice for families with just-in-time needs.

For ordinary consumers who do not have policy incentives, the appeal of hybrid vehicles lies more in comfort and driving: through the intervention of electric motors, the vibration and noise caused by the instantaneous increase in engine speed can be reduced when starting and accelerating suddenly, thereby effectively improving comfort.

The current development of hybrid power in the Chinese market may only be in its early stages, and there will be greater development in the future. Compared with hybrid power and pure electric drive routes, the former has basically no policy support, so the market acceptance has continued to grow step by step; in addition, the technical stability and reliability are very strong, and after 20,000 kilometers, the fuel consumption remains at the same level as a new car; and the purchase cost and economic use are easy to calculate, which makes the initial purchase cost increase less of an obstacle, and at the same time, the large-scale production of car companies is also rapidly reducing costs. In these aspects, although new energy vehicles cannot be completely denied, they are relatively not so confident.

The market doesn’t lie. New energy vehicles may face the challenge of insufficient demand in the short term. We should re-examine our past and see where we are in the future to find a solid road, not quicksand.