Why is Toyota so anxious to develop pure electric vehicles?

The day before yesterday , Toyota held a press conference in Tokyo with the theme of "Toyota challenge Aiming to Popularize BEVs". This topic contains a lot of connotations.

1) Toyota's global market situation

Toyota's own markets are mainly divided into Japan, North America, Europe, Southeast Asia and others (South America, the Middle East and Africa). From the growth trend, the two largest areas are declining due to population and market demand. Toyota's incremental markets are mainly in Europe and Southeast Asia.

Toyota's total retail sales in China in 2018 were 1.487 million, which is also an incremental market.

From a practical perspective, Toyota's statement this time is a strategic consideration. It cannot rest on its laurels in the HEV lead and needs to make a strategic leap towards pure electric vehicles .

Note: Assuming that the MEB plan is really implemented according to the first and second waves, Toyota does not have corresponding products, and it will be difficult to regain the market.

2) Toyota's reasons for accelerating the development of pure electric vehicles

I personally think that Toyota's acceleration of pure electric development is entirely out of competition. In Europe, Volkswagen has invested heavily in pure electric platforms to accelerate overall development based on its own needs. Toyota's previously accumulated HEV advantages can be used without doing anything if there is no direct demand in major markets such as Japan, the United States, and Southeast Asia. However, in the long run, if the bet is wrong, it will inevitably cost a lot of money and energy and suffer a big loss for a long time in the future.

So there is a plan to accelerate the promotion of pure electric vehicles

In Toyota's annual report, Akio Toyoda wrote:

Next, I would like to talk about things that we should change in line with the era ofCASE, related to a transition in our business model, particularly related to the “E” in “CASE”, with “E” standing for “electric”, or more specifically, “electrification”. Whether it be fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) or battery electric vehicles (BEVs), I believe that until now it seems that we have been entrenched in supplying completed vehicles through wholesale to our dealers and, through them, to our individual customers, just as we have been doing with gasoline-powered vehicles. For sure, up until and including hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), I believe that this business model was valid. But this might not remain so when it comes to FCEVs and BEVs, which require new infrastructure.

Starting from HEV, BEV or FCEV, they all need different things to support them, which is different from the previous sales of fuel vehicles. If there is no consensus to promote it, it is easy to fail.

Chinese market: Two small SUVs, based on the current settings, are designed to have a range of 300+km

Japanese market: Based on micro electric vehicles with a range of about 100km

Global models: These are mainly for Europe, China and the United States, including 6 major sub-models, developed using platform-based models

3) Development of pure electric platform

Toyota showed several pages of platform information, mainly including:

The same platform-based electrification architecture as Volkswagen

There is also a modular electrification module

In terms of system development, many Japanese companies and many aspects are involved

4) Battery selection

The choice of battery involves

CATL and BYD: Based on the models in China, these two are the most likely

Panasonic: Global models, Toyota previously injected funds to take over all of Panasonic's square shell battery factories

GS YUASA, Toshiba, Toyota Loom: These three are more likely to be used in miniaturized and ultra-miniaturized products in the Japanese market.

However, the above speculation is mainly based on the development level. In fact, due to the matching relationship between battery demand and production capacity, using China's battery production capacity in global vehicle models is an inevitable choice at present. The number of battery companies that can continuously invest in capacity construction and product iteration is limited. Who is willing to invest and develop is the core key.

Judging from the capacity expansion plan, if the demand for electric vehicles is as smooth as the energy transition, the money invested by Chinese battery companies in production capacity will be valuable to all car companies.

Summary: I tend to think that the route of pure electric vehicles is something that major car companies around the world have to do. Everyone needs a promising pure electric exclusive platform, ready production capacity and corresponding resources in the supply chain, and then everyone plays cards together to see if all models are pushed to the market and whether consumers will buy them. This is a card that must be played. Of course, it is not just about car companies preparing the supply side, but those who are not prepared will just sit aside and watch the major car companies play.