Using large cylinders to contain domestic batteries, are European and American car companies officially targeting Ningwang and BYD?

Standing in the torrent of automobile development, China is of course a latecomer. But on the new energy track, from terminal penetration to upstream supply chain, China, as the world's largest single consumer market for automobiles, has undoubtedly achieved a comprehensive lead. On the broad front of new energy vehicles, power battery technology is undoubtedly one of the core links throughout. From this perspective, China's new energy vehicles have established their core position today, and the maturity and application of prismatic battery technology are indispensable. However, cylindrical batteries seem to be making a comeback, and this time it is not only promoted by Tesla. So, will domestic power batteries, which rely on square batteries to seize market opportunities, and even China's new energy vehicle landscape, be successfully countered by large cylindrical batteries?

Will the market created by square batteries be taken back by large cylinders?

Cylindrical batteries are actually the earliest form of lithium batteries exposed to the public, and in the 1990s, the 18650 model was already introduced to the market by Sony. However, it is Sony’s old rival Panasonic that brings cylindrical batteries to the automotive market. Although Panasonic and Toyota had a short honeymoon period in the application of cylindrical batteries. However, at the turn of the century, whether it is hybrid power or more pure electric exploration based on the structure of fuel vehicles, it is not conducive to the promotion of cylindrical batteries, which are highly standardized in size and layout. Cylindrical batteries need a player who focuses on new energy routes. From the following story, it is obvious that this "chosen son" is Tesla.

If the above process is called the first stage of automobile power batteries, then the only thing that can compete with cylindrical batteries at that time is soft-pack batteries. Nissan, Renault, Volkswagen and other car companies have all been loyal fans of soft-pack batteries. The main reason is that during this period, traditional car giants "stepped on two boats." The soft-pack battery itself has excellent flexibility and is more suitable for the product needs of the transition from fuel vehicles to new energy vehicles. However, with the development of new energy trends, the capacity of battery cells has gradually increased. The production process of large-capacity soft-pack batteries has high requirements, poor consistency, high thermal management pressure, and difficult layout of passive safety devices. Disadvantages have been magnified one by one. Coupled with the emergence of larger single 21700 batteries, it can be said to be a fatal blow to soft-pack batteries.

But cylindrical batteries did not stay happy for long. In 2017, when 21,700 batteries were installed in cars, Panasonic, which focused on cylindrical batteries, was surpassed by CATL, which focused on prismatic batteries, and handed over the world's largest power battery installed capacity, which has dominated the world for 5 consecutive years. throne. Of course, there is Panasonic's own "crotch pulling" factor, but what cannot be ignored is the strong rise of China's prismatic battery technology. It was also at this stage that Tesla, a loyal fan of cylindrical batteries, also embraced prismatic batteries for the first time. As a result, the second phase of competition for automotive power batteries seems to have come to an end soon. Judging from the performance of domestic power battery installed capacity in the first three quarters of this year, prismatic batteries accounted for 94.5%, while cylindrical batteries accounted for less than 1%. The core reason behind this is that more and more car companies are shifting their focus to the new energy field. As a result, the demand for flexibility in inserting holes is reduced, and prismatic batteries that are easy to group and have a relatively high group density are favored. What's more, with the support of stacked prismatic batteries such as blade batteries, its flexibility has also been enhanced.

Can cylindrical batteries regain market initiative in the upcoming third phase? Judging from the competition experience in the previous two stages, the most important thing is to identify the core demands of car companies in the next stage. To put it simply, the first stage relies on flexibility, and the second stage relies on capacity. So looking at it now, the winner in the third stage may be efficiency. The reason is that when large cylindrical batteries represented by the 4680 are about to be launched, the disadvantages of low space utilization and low group density of cylindrical batteries are further reduced. When core technologies such as positive and negative electrodes, electrolytes, and separators are in the same dimension, the only thing left to compete between the cylindrical and square routes is "low-cost explosives."

The core issue is never the shape, and the industrial chain is even more inseparable.

The reason for reaching this conclusion is also traceable. For example, in the manufacturing of pure electric vehicles, the focus of each company has now turned to technologies such as one-piece die-casting that emphasize shipping efficiency and reduce production costs. And if you compare efficiency, cylinders do have inherent advantages. First of all, the commercialization of lithium batteries starts from the cylindrical shape, which has the most mature manufacturing process, high manufacturing yield rate and high consistency. The large cylindrical shape represented by 4680 further avoids problems such as small monomer capacity, low group density, and high BMS pressure.

Of course, achieving the specification of 4680 cells will still cause large-scale shipments of large cylindrical batteries to encounter process difficulties, resulting in a low yield rate. This also makes this battery form, which was released 3 years ago, still not installed on a large scale in cars today. However, after many delays, 2024 may become the "first year of large cylindrical batteries." Last month, Tesla officially announced that its Texas factory had produced its 20 millionth 4680 battery. The factory’s 10 millionth 4680 battery rolled off the assembly line in June. In other words, in less than 4 months, Tesla produced 1,000 4680 batteries, with an average output of more than 80,000 batteries per day. At this stage, in addition to Tesla, car companies including BMW, Mercedes-Benz, Stellantis, General Motors, Porsche, and Volvo have also joined the large cylinder camp.

But prismatic batteries are not waiting to be beaten. It is true that while the cell technology remains unchanged, the current prismatic batteries are already close to touching the theoretical capacity ceiling in terms of packaging form. However, volume capacity can also be standardized. In fact, Blade Battery took the lead in achieving a relatively higher level of standardization in terms of specifications, processes, etc., allowing it to conquer the city in a short period of time. Recently, Changan Automobile and CATL also cooperated to produce the first 87Ah standard battery product. According to reports, its production line can roll off a standard battery cell of this specification in 1.7 seconds. The packaging form of the square battery makes the heat insulation, heat dissipation, pressure relief and other designs that need to be faced when the group is later made relatively easy and efficient.

In fact, having said that, the packaging form of the battery has no direct relationship with whether it will become mainstream. After battery capacity has been pushed to new heights, the main contradiction faced by new energy vehicles naturally shifts from stacking energy density to lower cost and higher efficiency. Even soft-pack batteries can usher in a renaissance if they can meet the needs of the times. Even if we take a step back, the large cylindrical shape is the real one in the next stage. It is an exaggeration to say that this will surpass domestic batteries.

Among the manufacturers that have clearly planned large cylindrical batteries, according to incomplete statistics, Tesla, Panasonic, LG New Energy, Samsung SDI, CATL, Everview Lithium Energy, BAK Battery, AESC, etc., as of 2025 The planned production capacity has exceeded 600GWh. In addition, BYD has already made rumors this year and added a large cylindrical battery layout. Not only are the two major domestic battery giants among them, but Chinese battery companies that were originally in the second echelon also plan to use the large cylinder's air outlet to compete with overseas giants. In short, once the advantages of the industrial chain are established, it is no longer time to worry about whether the packaging form of square or cylindrical can achieve overtaking.