From autonomous driving to shared travel, who will be the mainstream in the future?

Currently, the global economy is entering the post-epidemic period of adjustment and recovery. With the convening of the 20th National Congress and the successive introduction and implementation of various policies, the development of China's economy is worth looking forward to.

In the past few years, the development of technology has been moving forward along its existing directions and laws, and has had a huge impact on the development and life of all walks of life. The slowdown in the global economy will inevitably inhibit consumers from spending on big-ticket items such as new cars, and light vehicle sales are expected to fall by 7%.

However, technological progress, carbon emission pressure, changing consumer demand and new travel modes will continue to become an inflection point in the development of the automotive industry. These trends include consumers’ increasing preference for autonomous vehicles, the rapid migration to sustainable fuels and powertrains , and the integration and optimization of new models in the mobility-as-a-service (MaaS) market.

Self-driving self-driving car record year

Although new light vehicle sales decline due to a slowdown in economic growth, this year will be a record year for autonomous vehicles, thanks to the accumulation and continued advancement of assisted driving system (ADAS) and autonomous driving algorithm technology over the past few years. .

In 2023 SAE (Society of Automotive Engineers) expects sales of L-3 light-duty autonomous vehicles to increase 216% from 2022 and will see some car brands launch highly automated vehicles, including the Hyundai Genesis G90 sedan and the Kia EV9 sport model Multipurpose vehicle (SUV).

2023 will also be a big year for SAE L-4 autonomous vehicles, and sales are expected to achieve amazing growth. Of course, the reason for this high growth rate is due to the low base in 2022. It is reported that Japan plans to allow a limited number of SAE L-4 cars on the road from April 2023, opening the door to the gradual application of autonomous driving and driverless buses.

Meanwhile, in the automotive and transportation industries, regulation will remain a major challenge in the development of autonomous vehicles, with many countries still requiring drivers to maintain control of their vehicles on public roads. This is largely related to the gradual improvement of laws and policies. After all, when autonomous vehicles cause accidents or violate traffic rules, the corresponding laws and policies have not yet fully caught up.

2023 light car sales forecast

Green travel electric vehicles are becoming mainstream

This year will once again be a record year for the popularity of electric vehicles (EVs), making them increasingly mainstream.

It is predicted that 19% of new passenger car registrations will be electric vehicles. And sales of battery electric vehicles (BEV) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV) will be 14% higher than in 2022. In terms of geographical distribution, China will continue to be the largest market for electric vehicles, accounting for 62% of global registered sales, followed by Europe with 21%, and the United States third with about 10%.

Driven by the demand for green travel, in addition to electric vehicles, hydrogen-powered vehicles will also usher in its development milestone in 2023. For example, Honda is expected to launch the CR-V fuel cell electric vehicle (FCEV), which has a dual-fuel system consisting of a battery for conventional charging and a hydrogen-driven fuel cell. In addition, BMW and Toyota are expected to cooperate in launching the hydrogen-powered iX5 in 2023 for fleet services.

Although the development prospects are good, there is still a way to go before the popularity and market acceptance of hydrogen-powered vehicles. The most critical of these is how to solve the problems of cost, safety and convenience of filling facilities of hydrogen as a fuel. Therefore, we can predict that the transition to sustainable mobility will still mainly rely on electric vehicles, with hydrogen power as a long-term solution.

Regional Sales Forecast of Electric Vehicles in 2023

Shared travel is optimizing and moving forward in continuous integration.

Total bookings for shared mobility apps will reach $214 billion this year, an increase of approximately 4.3% compared to the previous year. Amid the global economic slowdown, consumers and businesses are cutting back on their spending on transportation, thus keeping growth in this application relatively low.

The shared mobility sector has had a bumpy year last year, with Volkswagen selling its WeShare car-sharing service to Berlin-based transportation service provider Miles in November 2022, as well as SHARE, which also consists of Daimler's Car2Go and BMW's DriveNow. NOW was also sold to Stellantis in July 2022. With the investment cycle of venture capital and the re-evaluation of shared travel business models, the shared travel industry may see more market integration optimization and adjustments.

Despite the challenges, the future of shared mobility (MaaS) is still promising. After all, integrating numerous mobility modes through comprehensive booking and payment solutions will greatly improve the convenience and economy of people's travel and contribute to global sustainable development.

We believe that shared mobility (MaaS) represents the future direction and trend of travel, and will develop rapidly after breaking through the bottleneck.