The installed volume of lithium iron phosphate batteries exceeds 60%

With the release of data on power battery vehicle installations in 2022 , the accelerated transformation of the industry has become a general trend.

Recently, the latest statistics from the China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance show that in 2022, domestic power battery installed capacity will be 294.6GWh, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 90.7%. Among them, the cumulative installed volume of lithium iron phosphate batteries is 183.8GWh, accounting for 62.4% of the total installed volume, with a cumulative year-on-year growth of 130.2%.

" There is still room for further improvement in the market share of lithium iron phosphate batteries in the future." Li Jin, director of the Battery R&D Department of GAC Aion R&D Center, said, describing the changing trend in the power battery field.

Lithium iron phosphate is growing rapidly

From the data of vehicle loading volume, in terms of the composition of vehicle loading volume in 2022, the cumulative installed volume of ternary batteries will be 110.4GWh, accounting for 37.5% of the total installed vehicle volume, with a cumulative year-on-year growth of 48.6%.

In the domestic power battery market, lithium iron phosphate and ternary batteries are currently the two most mainstream technical routes. From 2018 to 2020, the installed volume of domestic lithium iron phosphate batteries was lower than that of ternary batteries. In July 2021, lithium iron phosphate batteries overtook ternary batteries with a market share of 51.3%, and has maintained the lead since then.

Especially in December 2022, the domestic market share of lithium iron phosphate batteries hit a record high in a single month, with a monthly installed volume of 24.7GWh, a market share of 68.3%, and a market share of 60% for five consecutive months. above.

"The substantial growth in the installed volume of lithium iron phosphate batteries is due to its good characteristics. At this stage, lithium iron phosphate has many advantages compared with ternary batteries, and some of the previous technical shortcomings have been basically completed. " Xu Xingwu, deputy director of Guoxuan High-tech Engineering Research Institute, said that lithium iron phosphate batteries have better high-temperature performance and can withstand high temperatures of 350°C to 500°C, while the materials of ternary lithium batteries are only about 200°C. Around C, the safety performance is better; before, the shortcoming of lithium iron phosphate batteries was the low energy density, but now there has been a new breakthrough. The maximum energy density of the lithium iron phosphate battery mass-produced by Guoxuan Hi-Tech has exceeded 190Wh. /kg, and the lithium iron phosphate system can continue to increase the energy density, and the single energy density will reach 200Wh/kg, which is not much different from the ternary battery. Because it can solve users' safety anxiety and other issues, under the current circumstances, more and more car companies are choosing lithium iron phosphate batteries.

"In fact, opportunities for the growth of lithium iron phosphate batteries on vehicles also come from the growth of overall sales of new energy vehicles ." Yu Dongsheng, a researcher at the New Energy Application Technology Research Center of Northwestern Polytechnical University, said in an interview with a reporter from China Automobile News that in 2022 In 2018, domestic sales of new energy vehicles reached 6.887 million units, a year-on-year increase of 93.4%, and the market share reached 25.6%. This continuous explosive growth was formed under the dual-wheel drive of policy and market. The growth in vehicle sales will inevitably bring growth to the indispensable power batteries. With the continuous optimization of lithium iron phosphate battery technology, energy density has improved, and the advantages of long life have been highlighted. At this stage, solid-state, sodium-ion and other batteries have not yet formed. In the context of large-scale application, lithium iron phosphate batteries have taken the lead in the market.

The opportunity to go overseas independently comes

Data show that in 2022, the cumulative exports of batteries from my country's power battery companies will reach 68.1GWh, of which the cumulative exports of ternary batteries will be 46.9GWh, accounting for 68.9% of total exports; the cumulative exports of lithium iron phosphate batteries will be 20.9GWh, accounting for 30% of total exports. ．7%.

In 2022, while new energy vehicles are accelerating their overseas expansion, power batteries will also usher in a period of opportunity for overseas expansion. At that time, many domestic power battery manufacturers continued to expand production at home and abroad, and established related subsidiaries to seek cooperation with upstream lithium mining companies.

It is reported that in 2022, BYD 's Changchun, Nanning, and Xiangyang bases, Honeycomb Energy's Shangrao and Yancheng bases, Sino-Sino Aviation's Meishan and Wuhan bases, and Lishen's Wuxi, Chuzhou, and Tianjin bases will all start construction in the short term. In addition, the pace of joint venture factories between car OEMs and battery companies is also accelerating. BYD and FAW, Tsingshan Industrial and SAIC and other joint venture factories have all started construction.

Judging from the pace of domestic related companies going overseas, accelerating overseas expansion has become a new trend. Among them, Envision Power's third North American factory plans to launch to supply cylindrical batteries to the BMW Group; EV Lithium Energy plans to invest in and build battery projects in Hungary and Malaysia. The U.S. subsidiary of Guoxuan Hi-Tech will spend US$2.364 billion (approximately RMB 16.8 billion) to build a power battery materials factory in Big Rapids, Michigan, USA. Moreover, in July 2022, Guoxuan Hi-Tech's first overseas factory has settled in Göttingen, Germany.

"There are many factors that are accelerating the overseas expansion of domestic power batteries." Lu Ancheng, a researcher at the Zhejiang New Energy Technology Application Research Institute, analyzed. First, due to the rapid improvement of the technology, production capacity, and quality levels of domestic power battery companies, especially many leading companies, They are not inferior to the products of foreign battery manufacturers, and have even formed a leading advantage in some technologies. Going overseas is also a need to release production capacity; secondly, a large number of overseas vehicle customer orders have been signed, which also adds confidence to domestic power battery companies going overseas. Third, as global new energy vehicles become a trend and continue to grow significantly, domestic power battery companies have a historic opportunity to go overseas. "Although the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act may have a certain impact on the overseas export of power batteries, it cannot change the general development trend." He believes.

Still need to be alert to market risks

Data show that my country's cumulative power battery production in 2022 is 545.9GWh, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 148.5%, but the inventory is still close to 251.3GWh. At the same time, forecasts show that the domestic announced power battery production capacity plan has reached 480 billion watt-hours, but it is expected that by 2025, the demand for power batteries in China's new energy vehicle market will be approximately 100 billion watt-hours to 120 billion watt-hours. This has triggered concerns about overcapacity in the industry.

"Whether there is overcapacity in domestic power batteries or not, the data cannot reflect the true and comprehensive situation." Lu Ancheng said that more reliable data needs to be seen from the actual construction and production. Generally speaking, the power battery industry is still in the expansion period, so , it is now difficult to accurately judge whether the industry has the risk of overcapacity.

There are also different opinions on this. "Overcapacity of power batteries is very likely to reappear." Peng Songlin, an analyst at Huatai Securities, told the media that domestic power battery companies have been significantly expanding production in recent years, and new production capacity may be released starting in 2023. There is a possibility of overcapacity. If there is a surplus, it also means that the power battery industry will undergo a reshuffle period. To this end, relevant companies should scientifically assess the market and their own strength, and must not blindly expand production as they did in previous years.

"The market is the soil and foundation for the survival of the power battery industry. We must keep up with the market pace to resolve market risks." Yu Dongsheng believes that on the one hand, as a power battery company, we must pay attention to market trends and industry development trends, and invest in research and development, Continuously improve the level of key links such as technological innovation and quality assurance, and focus on the market frontier. On the other hand, if relevant enterprises want to follow the path of high-quality development, they must optimize the allocation of resource factors and avoid vicious homogeneous competition; they must continuously improve their market competitiveness and their ability to resist risks; they must make full use of overseas development opportunities and open up new markets. market. “In short, only by continuously improving our own strength can we gain a firm foothold in market competition and achieve sustainable development.” He emphasized.