Foreign media: Lithium iron phosphate batteries are revived again, and Chinese battery companies are at the forefront of the industry

Publisher:创意航海Latest update time:2021-12-08 Source: 车东西 Reading articles on mobile phones Scan QR code
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The largest electric vehicle fire incident in the United States that caused a lot of controversy this year seems to have subsided after LG compensated GM $1.9 billion (about RMB 12.1 billion), but electric vehicle fire incidents still appear in the public eye from time to time.


This also puts battery safety on the table.


At present, the power batteries of electric vehicles on the market mainly include ternary lithium batteries and lithium iron phosphate batteries. In the past, major car companies have flocked to ternary lithium batteries with high energy density and longer driving range in the electric vehicle race, but ignored the possible fire risk of such batteries. Take General Motors as an example. The ternary lithium batteries used in the 140,000 electric Chevrolet Bolts involved in the spontaneous combustion incident can provide a driving range of more than 250 miles (about 402 kilometers) and an energy density of 138Wh/kg, but there is a risk of fire.


Lithium iron phosphate batteries are better in terms of cost, stability and safety, but due to their lower energy density, the range they can provide is also shorter. Therefore, more than a decade ago, some people believed that lithium iron phosphate batteries would be abandoned by the market.


However, due to the frequent spontaneous combustion of ternary lithium batteries in recent years, the market has once again turned its attention back to lithium iron phosphate batteries. And Chinese battery manufacturers happened to take advantage of this trend.


Bloomberg recently published an in-depth report, saying that China is now in the process of promoting dual carbon emission reduction, relying on more conservative and stable battery technology and effective industrial policies to take the lead in the global competition for automotive batteries. The following is the full text of the report, which has been slightly edited without changing the original meaning.


1. Battery safety comes first, lithium iron phosphate is revived again


Compared with launching cutting-edge technologies, Chinese battery manufacturers are more focused on making batteries safer.


The cutting-edge car batteries launched by South Korea, which is currently at the forefront of battery technology, are ternary lithium batteries containing different proportions of nickel, cobalt and manganese, but the disadvantages of these batteries are also obvious - they are not safe enough and are prone to heat and combustion. In addition, materials such as cobalt are expensive and difficult to purchase, which does not meet the requirements of sustainable development in the long run.


Another older battery formula is lithium iron phosphate, which is made of lithium, iron and phosphate. These materials make batteries larger but safer.


More than a decade ago, analysts predicted the imminent demise of lithium iron phosphate batteries because, while cheaper and safer than alternatives, they were bulky, had low voltage, and could not meet consumer demand for longer driving ranges.


Theoretically, ternary lithium batteries can solve these problems. Therefore, many battery manufacturers have turned to increasing the nickel content in batteries to achieve longer battery life and higher energy density. During the honeymoon period of ternary lithium batteries, many people predicted that ternary lithium batteries would occupy three-quarters of the entire market by 2018.


But that didn’t happen. Instead, the cost of ternary lithium batteries remained high, and there were a series of fires caused by overcharging and overuse.


Even though reality has severely slapped them in the face, many large battery manufacturers have been reluctant to admit that the ternary lithium battery technology that takes into account cost, long battery life, high energy density and safety is only a paper talk. Therefore, many battery manufacturers continue to move in the direction of ternary lithium batteries without fully evaluating how to raise funds and conduct research and development.


But ternary lithium batteries seem to have slowly fallen out of favor, and at the same time Chinese battery manufacturers are making a comeback with lithium iron phosphate batteries.


Now many automakers, including Tesla, have begun to switch to lithium iron phosphate batteries provided by Chinese battery manufacturers BYD and CATL - an improved version of the old lithium iron phosphate batteries that have a history of decades.


The battery technology is more conservative and safer, and will be mass-produced in millions of electric vehicles, including those from Volkswagen AG and Hyundai Motor Co.


2. Lower cost: Lithium iron phosphate market share exceeds ternary lithium


According to McKinsey's analysis, the price of ternary lithium batteries is much higher than that of their raw materials, with a premium of nearly 80%, which also leads to higher production costs. The lithium iron phosphate battery technology launched by BYD and other companies can reduce costs by about 20%.


China's lithium iron phosphate batteries currently have cost advantages


In addition, lithium iron phosphate batteries have a key safety advantage: if one of the cells fails, the heat generated is much lower than that of ternary lithium batteries. In most thermal runaway situations (when the temperature inside the battery starts to accelerate), lithium iron phosphate batteries will only smoke and will not catch fire because they are more stable.


In March 2020, BYD launched the blade battery, which is thinner and lighter, with an energy density of 140Wh/kg. Generally speaking, the energy density of the old lithium iron phosphate battery is 100Wh/kg, while the energy density of the nickel-rich ternary lithium battery exceeds 200Wh/kg. It can be said that this blade battery has taken a big step forward in promoting the energy density of lithium iron phosphate batteries.


When it comes to battery safety, these Chinese battery manufacturers are not negligent. BYD claims that the blade battery has passed extreme test conditions such as being squeezed, bent, heated to 300°C in a furnace and overcharged by 260% - under these test conditions, the blade battery did not catch fire or explode. On the other hand, BYD's rival CATL has also focused its research and development on safety, using aviation-grade materials to develop high-stability batteries that are more resistant to short circuits.


In addition, the Chinese authorities' policy guidance is also quite forward-looking. In 2016, China's electric vehicle power battery white list included Chinese battery companies, which effectively suppressed Korean ternary lithium battery manufacturers such as Samsung SDI and LG Chem. Facts have also proved that the safety of ternary lithium batteries is indeed far inferior to that of lithium iron phosphate batteries. From 2018 to 2020, the proportion of electric vehicle safety accidents caused by ternary lithium batteries and lithium iron phosphate batteries was about 60% and 11% respectively.


According to Bloomberg New Energy Finance, this year, the market share of lithium iron phosphate batteries exceeded that of ternary lithium batteries for the first time since 2019. Tesla, the leader in electric vehicles, will equip all Model 3 standard range versions with lithium iron phosphate batteries, which has also attracted other automakers to follow suit. Some analysts predict that the market share of lithium iron phosphate batteries will further expand in the future.


It is expected that lithium iron phosphate batteries will occupy the largest market share (the blue part in the figure is the market share of lithium iron phosphate batteries)


3. Pollution forces market transformation. China vigorously promotes electric vehicles


The opportunity for the Chinese electric vehicle market to take off was the huge pollution problem caused by the development of automobile manufacturing and other heavy industries.


Soon after Beijing became the world's largest auto market in 2009, it began implementing an aggressive emissions reduction program - Wan Gang, then minister of science and technology and known as the father of China's electric vehicles, led the push for strict controls on vehicles with heavy pollution emissions.


In 2012, China's State Council listed the electric vehicle industry as a key strategic industry. In cities such as Hangzhou, consumers can receive subsidies of up to about US$20,000 (about RMB 127,400) when purchasing electric vehicles.


However, by 2015, progress had stalled across the industry, with poor-quality batteries and electric cars rife and subsidy fraud rampant. By 2016, the Chinese government had spent at least another 12.6 billion yuan on new energy vehicle subsidies, with billions more coming from provincial and municipal governments. But as the cost of raw materials and new technology continued to rise, manufacturers’ profit margins fell, and consumers were not buying the products.


In response to this situation, the authorities began to adopt a carrot-and-stick regulatory approach, increasing subsidies on the one hand and tightening market supervision requirements every year on the other.


Under this industrial policy, Chinese authorities have built a vital supply chain for automotive batteries. According to UBS, China now accounts for 85% of the global market for battery cathodes, anodes, separators and electrolytes.


China’s control over the global battery supply chain has significantly reduced costs for manufacturers operating in China. For example, Tesla has been able to reduce the purchase price of its vehicles by more than 30% by operating in China.


4. Western governments rely on market regulation to gain an advantage in China's battery industry


Currently in other countries, subsidies for new energy vehicles are mainly focused on consumers, but there are almost no financial incentives for manufacturers. At the same time, free-market authorities have not prioritized key issues such as battery safety and battery standards, but have left free-market innovation to solve these problems.

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Reference address:Foreign media: Lithium iron phosphate batteries are revived again, and Chinese battery companies are at the forefront of the industry

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