The market-oriented development of new energy vehicles has entered a new stage, with sales and penetration rates accelerating in 2021.

Data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers show that from January to October 2021, my country's sales of new energy vehicles have exceeded 2.5 million. Ouyang Minggao, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, predicts that the total sales of new energy vehicles this year will be around 3.3 million.

He said that the number might reach 5 million next year. If there were no restrictions on battery supply, chip supply and production capacity, and the number was calculated entirely based on demand, it is expected to be even higher than this.

On November 2, at the annual media communication meeting of the 100-person forum, Ouyang Minggao talked about the above content. He believes that this year's market growth exceeded expectations, but it is logical, and the reason for the market explosion is mainly the result of technological progress, rich products, and strong policies.

Ouyang Minggao, academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and vice chairman of the China Electric Vehicle 100 Association

With the continuous improvement of battery technology and the reduction of costs, pure electric drive products have fully covered all types of vehicles and have laid the foundation for rapid growth.

According to the S-curve, new energy vehicles have entered a period of steep growth. He believes that the market share will definitely exceed 20% next year, and if we look at it on a monthly basis, by the end of December next year, the market share is expected to exceed 30%.

Both domestic and foreign countries have made relevant predictions about the development of new energy vehicles in the next ten years. Overall, the figures given by the international community are more radical and optimistic.

Ouyang Minggao introduced that the global carbon neutrality roadmap released by the International Energy Agency (IEA) in May this year believes that global electric vehicles will increase 18 times from 2020 to 2030, and annual sales will reach 55 million in 2030. This figure is reversed according to the carbon neutrality requirements and is a relatively radical forecast. A relatively conservative forecast believes that global electric vehicle sales will be 30 million in 2030.

Referring to international forecasts and comprehensive factors of the domestic market, he estimated that my country's new energy vehicle sales will be between 7 million and 9 million in 2025, and between 17 million and 19 million in 2030. In terms of ownership, it will exceed 30 million in 2025, approach 100 million in 2030, approach 200 million in 2035, and approach 300 million in 2040.

At present, domestic brands have certain competitive advantages, but it is foreseeable that joint ventures will collectively exert their strength in the next two years, and it is expected that the competition will enter a fierce period in 2023. He believes that the next five years will be a window period for the market. The market is in a state of rapid growth, and the survival pressure of enterprises will not be great, but a number of enterprises will definitely be eliminated after five years.

Overall, the new energy vehicle market is trending well, but while welcoming the explosive growth of the market, it is also facing a series of challenges involving battery technology, charging and swapping technology, and hydrogen fuel cells . Ouyang Minggao elaborated in depth on the challenges and responses that new energy vehicles may face in the next step of development.

1

Huge demand for battery materials

Recycling is key

Ouyang Minggao introduced that with the explosive growth of electric vehicles, the sustainable development of power batteries is worthy of attention, including carbon emissions and material recycling throughout the life cycle of power batteries, the medium- and long-term development route of the battery material system, and the intelligence of the entire power battery chain.

In terms of installed capacity, 92GWh of power batteries were installed in vehicles from January to September 2021. He predicts that the annual installed capacity of power batteries will be around 150GWh this year, around 600GWh in 2025, and between 1500-2000GWh in 2030.

Based on the number of new energy vehicles in use, we can predict the total number of on-board batteries in my country, which is expected to exceed 2,000GWh in 2025, exceed 7,000GWh in 2030, and exceed 15,000GWh in 2035.

The booming electric vehicle market has stimulated the rapid expansion of the upstream battery industry. Ouyang Minggao introduced a statistical data, pointing out that China's planned power battery production capacity will reach 1,000GWh in 2023 and close to 2,500GWh in 2025.

The planned production capacity for 2025 is four times the predicted installed capacity for that year. The planned production capacity far exceeds the annual output of power batteries, and we need to be vigilant about the problem of overcapacity.

CATL is the power battery company with the highest disclosed production capacity plan

At the same time, the rapid expansion of battery production will stimulate cyclical price increases of upstream materials, while also causing the industry to worry about shortages of material resources.

Ouyang Minggao introduced that from the mining potential of core battery materials such as lithium, manganese and nickel, the economically recoverable reserves of lithium resources in the world are 21 million tons. If calculated based on the ternary 811 battery material system, 200 billion kWh of batteries can be produced. Based on an average of 100 kWh per car, 2 billion electric vehicles can be manufactured.

He believes that there is no need to worry about the reserves of lithium resources, and manganese materials are even more abundant. However, the resources of cobalt are not so optimistic, and the economically exploitable reserves are only 7.1 million tons. According to this calculation, only 95 billion kWh of batteries can be made.

On the surface, the risk of battery material shortage lies in cobalt resources. But the hidden problem is that the global resource distribution is extremely uneven, which also brings risks to material shortage.

He introduced that three-quarters of lithium mines are in Australia, Chile and Argentina, two-thirds of cobalt mines depend on the Democratic Republic of the Congo in Africa, and half of nickel mines depend on Indonesia and Russia.

Therefore, the recycling and reuse of power batteries is very important, and another problem brought about by recycling is energy consumption and emissions. Taking the ternary 811 lithium-ion battery as an example, the carbon emissions per kilowatt-hour in its entire life cycle are about 87kg.

The carbon emissions of ternary lithium batteries are relatively high, mainly due to the preparation of the positive electrode materials. The carbon emissions of lithium iron phosphate batteries over their entire life cycle are about 1/3 lower than those of the ternary 811 chemical system, and the carbon emissions of sodium-ion batteries will be even lower.

How to solve the carbon emission problem? Ouyang Minggao put forward three suggestions:

First, clean electricity. Now the battery industry chain needs to be transferred to the west as much as possible. Sichuan, Guizhou, Yunnan and Qinghai are very suitable places. Taking advantage of renewable energy and local resources is a fundamental way.

Second, battery recycling and remanufacturing. From the perspective of recycling, the total amount of batteries that need to be recycled and reused in China will reach 125GWh in 2025.

At present, there are three main methods for recycling power batteries: dry method, wet method and physical recycling. Among them, the most popular are innovative technologies such as physical recycling, battery repair and material regeneration.

From the perspective of the emission reduction potential of power batteries throughout their life cycle, under the current power structure, physical recycling can reduce emissions by more than 50%, wet recycling can reduce emissions by 32%, and pyrolysis recycling can reduce emissions by 3-5%.

BMW recycles i3 batteries for factory energy storage

Third, improve the production process of the entire industry chain and enhance the energy efficiency of key links. Simply put, it is to tap the performance potential of existing materials. Each battery material has a theoretical value for specific capacity, but in practice, it is difficult for battery products to reach the theoretical value.

Realizing intelligent production and recycling throughout the entire process is the core idea of ​​the EU's 2030 battery plan, which is to reduce the gap between the actual performance of the battery and the theoretical value by half through intelligent design, to achieve a utilization rate of recycled raw materials close to 100% through intelligent recycling, and to reduce the carbon footprint of the entire life cycle by 1/2.

2

Supercharging, quick-change, and orderly charging each have their own scenarios

At present, there are more and more electric vehicles with long driving range , and consumers' range anxiety is obviously reduced, but they are beginning to worry about how to charge after the driving range is increased. Super fast charging is a solution, but the charging rate is too high, and the battery , car, and power grid cannot bear it.

Ouyang Minggao said that to achieve super-fast charging, the battery must have a charging capacity of 4C-6C, the voltage of the vehicle platform must be increased to more than 800 volts, and the problem of grid load needs to be solved by discharging energy storage batteries.

He further said that fast charging technology must solve safety issues without affecting battery life, and the most difficult part is to unleash the fast charging potential of the power battery itself. The charging process is most prone to safety accidents, mainly because fast charging causes lithium dendrites to cause internal short circuits.