How will autonomous driving develop in 2021?

Translated from EEtimes

What will happen with autonomous vehicles in 2021. Last year was a mediocre year for the autonomous driving industry, and the pandemic's blow to automotive chips was obviously huge. But on the bright side, autonomous trucks and cargo autonomous vehicles rose in importance, replacing robotaxis. The exception is China, where testing and trials of robotaxis have increased significantly.

The table below provides an overview of the main autonomous driving trends in 2021 and 2020.

NHTSA Autonomous Driving Regulation

NHTSA's work on autonomous driving regulation is a big story for 2021. NHTSA is developing a framework for the safety of self-driving cars. Hopefully it will be finished in 2021, 2022 is more realistic.

SPACs and IPOs

Special Purpose Acquisition Company (SPAC)[1] ) has had a huge impact on autonomous driving companies going public (rather than traditional IPOs). In 2020, several lidar and sensing companies went public through SPACs, including Velodyne, Luminar, Innoviz, and Aeva. SPAC-based IPOs are likely to continue to serve lidar startups and expand into other autonomous driving areas in 2021, such as autonomous driving software platforms, autonomous trucks, and autonomous driving processor companies.

Autonomous driving integration continues

The autonomous driving industry is also ripe for consolidation. Amazon acquired Zoox in June 2020, and Aurora acquired Uber's autonomous vehicle group in December 2020. Another smaller acquisition also took place in December 2020, when Nuro acquired Ike Robotics. 

Expect more autonomous driving consolidation in 2021, and more LiDAR acquisitions as Tier 1 suppliers and automotive OEMs look for opportunities. Some of the many LiDAR startups may not receive additional venture capital and may go public at low prices. LiDAR companies with frequency modulated continuous wave (FMCW) technology will become more popular and may become attractive acquisition targets.

Self-driving trucks

Self-driving trucks are starting to come to the fore in 2020 and will likely see continued investment and progress. There will be a rapid expansion of testing in the southwestern states of the U.S. Plus.ai expects to begin testing in Europe and begin production self-driving trucks in 2021.

Waymo and Aurora, two leading autonomous driving software platform companies, have entered the field of autonomous trucks and are expected to become strong competitors. Aurora has just announced a partnership with Paccar, while Waymo is working with the Daimler truck brand. This shows that both Aurora and Waymo will play a bigger role in the field of autonomous trucks in 2021.

We may see autonomous trucks tested without a safety driver. TuSimple has already announced that it will test driverless trucks in 2021, and other companies may follow suit.

The autonomous truck business will grow significantly in 2021, from 150 autonomous trucks in 2020 to 2,000 by the end of 2021. Autonomous trucks are being used for hub-to-hub use cases, and the vast majority of autonomous vehicle operations are on highways. These numbers may be low if leading logistics companies such as FedEx, UPS, Amazon, and Walmart increase autonomous truck testing.

Autonomous driving for cargo

NHTSA published new rules on January 13, 2021 that will apply to cargo-only autonomous vehicles. The document exempts autonomous vehicles used in the freight sector without passengers from some traditional crash standards. This means that cargo-only autonomous vehicles do not require occupant protection and do not require human driver control. This is the first major move by NHTSA to promote the implementation of autonomous vehicles without traditional controls (steering wheels and brake pedals). Essentially, this rule matches the exemption that Nuro received in 2020.

There are two main segments of commodity self-driving cars: road self-driving cars and sidewalk self-driving cars. Road self-driving cars come in a variety of vehicle sizes, from vans and pickup trucks to special-purpose cargo self-driving cars, such as the Nuro R2. Special-purpose product self-driving cars are expected to grow strongly in 2021, with Nuro leading in the United States and Neolix leading in China. At CES 2020, Valeo demonstrated Neolix's special-purpose product self-driving cars, and Valeo may become a dark horse in the future market.

On-road goods autonomous driving is expected to make great progress in 2021, growing from about 100 vehicles in 2020 to thousands by the end of 2021. If Waymo, Cruise, and Ford actively use their autonomous vehicles to deliver on-road goods in 2021, this number may be higher.

Sidewalk self-driving cars have greater growth potential in 2021. Because of their low speed, collision injuries are less likely. Starship has been leading the way with multiple delivery tests in multiple cities. Starship and its competitors have also successfully delivered fast food at universities. Although it slowed down during the pandemic, it will accelerate in 2021.

Amazon and FedEx, which have potentially larger e-commerce delivery footprints, both have their own Sidewalk self-driving car development programs that could launch in late 2021. As a result, Sidewalk self-driving car numbers could increase from around 400 in 2020 to more than 4,000 by the end of 2021. At some point, Sidewalk self-driving car usage will surge to tens of thousands, but that may not happen until 2022 or 2023.

Robotaxis

Robotaxi testing with safety drivers will expand to more cities in China and the U.S. We will also see more European cities and other countries in Asia begin testing robotaxi services. Robotaxi services with drivers will expand significantly in cities in China and the U.S., as well as in some other regions.

Testing of driverless robotaxis will expand to the United States, China, Europe, and Israel, and possibly to several other countries, with some paid service deployments also expected to take place in those areas.

As of the end of 2020, there were more than 500 robot taxis in testing in the United States and China, with Waymo having the largest share. This number is expected to grow significantly by the end of 2021, possibly exceeding 10,000. The scale of Waymo's expansion will largely depend on its plans in California or other cities. Growth in China will also be a key factor. The third factor will depend on Mobileye's expansion strategy.

Fixed Route

Fixed-route autonomous vehicles provide shared mobility services, so they are more affected by the epidemic. As the impact of the pandemic decreases in mid-2021 and beyond. Many transportation service agencies are already interested in these autonomous vehicles and have more time to evaluate how and where to conduct further testing and deployment, which will begin at the end of 2021.

We will not see any personal self-driving cars in 2021 or in the next few years. The focus is on expanding L1 and L2 ADAS functions, with L2+ appearing on some models. L3 may also be available. However, I am in favor of skipping L3 because some drivers cannot control the driving task in some emergency situations. If this happens, the entire autonomous driving industry will be negatively affected.

Mobileye's demonstration at CES 2021 has greatly accelerated the time to market for L4 personal driving cars. With FMCW lidar and radar, Mobileye is targeting consumer autonomous driving in 2025.

Mobileye believes that by 2025, its strategy of using two independent perception systems (camera and lidar/radar), RSS (Responsibility-Sensitive Safety System) and REM (Road Experience Management System) will be mature enough and suitable for L4 autonomous vehicles.

2021 will be a good year for all applications of autonomous vehicles, as there are strong technological advances in sensors, processors, software, and safety. By 2020, the number of autonomous driving applications will increase tenfold, but from a small base, which will also drive the expansion of many businesses.

[1]  SPAC, also known as special purpose company, is established for the sole purpose of raising funds (usually through IPO) and using these funds to purchase or merge with existing high-quality companies. It is a new type of equity financing tool that has appeared in the US market in recent years. A special purpose acquisition company is a shell company with no specific business and no historical problems. It raises funds through public market issuance. After the issuance is successful, the management of the special purpose acquisition company will seek to merge with a merger target that may bring high returns to shareholders. Shaanxi Coal Group is similar to SPAC. By acquiring Dewei, it only went public through a backdoor listing to achieve the purpose of transformation and upgrading.