Forbes Analysis: Six things Elon Musk is most likely to announce at Tesla's 2020 Battery Day

Beijing time, September 7th, according to Forbes, for those interested in electric vehicles, Tesla's Battery Day is quickly becoming an event comparable to Apple's iPhone launch conference, although the name is a bit of an understatement. On this day, Tesla will announce a series of news to its investors before showing the latest technologies developed by the company to the public. These mainly revolve around the theme of battery enhancement, but because batteries are a very important component of electric vehicles, the impact can be huge. The next Battery Day event will be held on September 22, during which Tesla will announce some very important news. Here are the things Elon Musk is most likely to talk about.

A million-mile battery

The most anticipated Battery Day announcement will be around the so-called "million-mile battery." As the name suggests, this is a battery that can last a million miles. Tesla's million-mile battery makes the saying that "electric vehicle batteries don't last long and need to be recycled" a thing of the past. Tesla's battery research team, led by Jeff Dahn, has published several theoretical research papers that could provide the necessary potential technology shifts for the advent of the million-mile battery.

Single crystal cathodes could become very important, allowing 90% of the battery capacity to be maintained after 4,000 charge and discharge cycles, while current battery technology can only maintain about 1,000 cycles. Therefore, since the average range of Tesla battery packs has reached 300 kilometers without a range loss of more than 10%, single cathode batteries have great potential to achieve 90% capacity after 1 million miles of driving.

Another technology that could also help the million-mile battery arrive is silicon nanowire anodes. Silicon nanowire anodes could be a complete game changer due to their dramatic impact on energy density. The technology would allow batteries to be half the weight and take up half the space of current lithium-ion batteries, paving the way for energy densities of 400Wh/kg, compared to around 250Wh/kg in the current Tesla Model 3 battery.

Using these anodes, the Tesla Model 3 Long Range can have a WLTP rating of over 500 miles without changing the vehicle weight. In another sign, a company called Amprius that has been developing the technology has moved next door to Tesla, though Musk denied the company's relocation had anything to do with this.

While he is unlikely to announce the use of silicon nanowire batteries in cars in 2021, he is likely to reveal the development roadmap of the technology in the next 3-4 years at Battery Day.　　

Zero cobalt battery

Related to the million-mile battery, Tesla's battery supplier CATL announced in June this year that it can produce batteries with a lifespan of 1.2 million miles, or a service life of up to 16 years.

However, this involves switching from lithium-ion batteries to lithium iron phosphate (LFP) battery technology. Although it is not obvious from the name, the key to LFP is that it does not use cobalt, a rare earth mineral that is one of the main reasons why electric vehicle batteries are so expensive.

Compared to lithium-ion batteries, LFP batteries have lower density, lower production costs and greater durability. Therefore, Tesla's announcement of zero-cobalt batteries will be another step towards mainstream affordability for electric vehicles.

However, CATL’s technology will likely be focused initially on the Chinese market, where competition from local EV suppliers makes Tesla’s pricing more important than it is currently in Europe or the U.S. The battery technology may not be used in other markets just yet.

Dry cell electrode

Dry cell electrodes may turn out to be the most far-reaching announcement of Battery Day. In May 2019, Tesla acquired Maxwell Technologies for $218 million. The deal seems to be driven by Maxwell’s dry cell electrode technology, which increases production efficiency by 16 times and drives down manufacturing costs by 20%, both key factors in bringing EVs to market. Maxwell’s technology has also been shown to improve battery performance, with cell densities currently at 300kWh/kg and the potential to reach 500kWh/kg in the future. Therefore, acquiring Maxwell would mean Tesla can produce cheaper batteries faster, and potentially with greater range in the future.

Half a year after acquiring Maxwell, rumors began circulating in the industry about Tesla's Roadrunner project, which aims to reduce battery production costs. Tesla also acquired Hibar, a battery equipment manufacturer. In other words, the company is preparing to mass-produce its own batteries, reduce costs while increasing density, once again paving the way for more affordable electric vehicles.

Will Tesla become an energy company?

Tesla has been selling PowerWall since 2015 and has also branched out into solar rooftop power systems. The company has also added vehicle-to-grid technology to the Model 3. Tesla has applied to become an energy supplier in the UK and has been granted a license to trade electricity in Western Europe. With a large Supercharger network, it makes sense for the company to have more control over energy supply costs, especially as Powerwall sales expand. If it becomes an energy company, with a large installed base of Powerwalls, Tesla can offer customers a power sales program to sell electricity to the grid during peak electricity consumption through Tesla as a power supplier for home batteries. Although this is just speculation, if you connect the dots, Tesla is indeed moving in this direction.

Is Tesla planning to launch an electric plane?

Given the weight of the battery, electric cars are not small, but this is not a fatal problem for cars. However, for aircraft, every gram counts. Earlier this year, there were rumors that Tesla aircraft was under development, so Elon Musk discussed the possibility of developing a Tesla aircraft.

He denied that he would focus on aircraft research and development for at least the next five years, but said that the above 400Wh/kg energy density is a condition for the feasibility of electric aircraft. It is unlikely that there will be a clear announcement about Tesla aircraft on Battery Day, but there may be some hints in the announcement about achieving this energy density level.　　

New manufacturing process in use at the Berlin plant

Media reports say Musk promised that when Model Y goes into production at the Berlin plant, there will be a new spraying system and a revolution in body engineering. One of the developments is a large casting machine that can produce fewer and larger bodies to minimize welding, reduce production costs and speed up production at the same time.

This is obviously not an announcement about batteries, but the Berlin Gigafactory will start production in July 2021, and Musk is likely to announce details of progress towards this goal on Battery Day.