Autonomous driving L3 vehicles will have an explosion in 2020

　　Autonomous driving will be another industrial revolution in the automotive industry after steam, electricity and information in the past 131 years. Industry insiders said that due to China's overall advantages in artificial intelligence, high-precision maps and the Internet industry chain, it is very likely to become an opportunity to surpass Europe and the United States. Now, both traditional international automobile giants and emerging Internet companies have deeply involved in the autonomous driving circle. In the middle of last month, Beijing announced that it would allow autonomous driving vehicles to be tested on the road. Is autonomous driving still far away from you? Let's follow the automotive electronics editor to learn about the relevant content.

　　Autonomous driving will hit the road in 2020, with L3 vehicles expected to see an explosion

　　Autonomous driving will be another industrial revolution in the automotive industry after steam, electricity and information in the past 131 years. Industry insiders said that due to China's overall advantages in artificial intelligence, high-precision maps and the Internet industry chain, it is very likely to become an opportunity to surpass Europe and the United States. Now, both traditional international automobile giants and emerging Internet companies have deeply involved in the autonomous driving circle. In the middle of last month, Beijing announced that it would allow autonomous driving vehicles to be tested on the road. Is autonomous driving still far away from you?

　　Opening words

　　Since the birth of mankind, every disruptive technology that has influenced the world has been behind "technology". With the update and development of global artificial intelligence technology, the development of the artificial intelligence industry has ushered in an explosive period - from daily cashless payments, to facial recognition financial authentication, to paperless offices, smart cities, 5G Internet of Things, big data... The new round of technology is penetrating into every "capillary" of life at a speed that we cannot estimate.

　　The Fortune International Science and Technology Brainstorming Conference is permanently located in Guangzhou. Guangzhou is building a pilot demonstration city for Made in China 2025, implementing the action plan for the new generation of information technology, artificial intelligence, biomedicine (IAB) and new energy and new materials (NEM) industries, vigorously developing advanced manufacturing industries such as new energy vehicles, rail transit, unmanned driving and robots, launching a new round of technological transformation actions for industrial enterprises, promoting the integrated development of the digital economy and the real economy, and realizing the leap from "Made in Guangzhou" to "Smart Manufacturing in Guangzhou" and "Created in Guangzhou".

　　Guangzhou Daily's "Science and Technology @focus" will bring everyone into contact with the most cutting-edge and advanced scientific and technological achievements in Guangzhou and even the world. As Kevin Kelly, the author of "Out of Control", said: Today is just the "beginning", we need to believe in the impossible.

　　A young man needed to pick up a friend at the airport after get off work. He turned on his phone and entered the destination. Three minutes later, an autonomous vehicle was waiting downstairs. The young man got in the car, which quickly took him to the airport parking lot. After the young man got off the car, the vehicle quickly found a parking space automatically based on the parking lot's intelligent system.

　　This is a future travel scenario described by autonomous driving scientists. Behind this scenario, the "intelligent transportation" system composed of smart cities, autonomous driving, high-precision maps, and artificial intelligence helps passengers enjoy mobile travel freely and safely.

　　How is autonomous driving achieved?

　　Guangzhou, Panyu Hualong, GAC Research Institute. If you have the opportunity to visit the largest automobile R&D center in southern China, you will be surprised by the autonomous driving test vehicles shuttling back and forth on the roads in the center. In California, the United States, the road tests of autonomous driving reached hundreds of thousands of kilometers last year.

　　Autonomous driving tests are taking place in every corner of the world.

　　How does autonomous driving work? The reporter had the honor of riding on a Witstar II that is currently in the experimental stage at the GAC Research Institute. The biggest difference between this white SUV and ordinary models is the radar on the top of the head. The white radar is located at the top of the car, and below the radar are two cameras. These are the "eyes" of the autonomous driving vehicle, used to "see clearly" all obstacles on the road.

　　Sitting in the self-driving car, the engineer pressed the switch button, and our vehicle started automatically, driving at a speed of 20 kilometers per hour. When entering the turning corner, the steering wheel automatically turned, and the whole turning process was quite comfortable. Suddenly, the radar detected a car in front, and our vehicle slowly began to slow down and slowly stopped one meter away from the obstacle. After a while, the vehicle in front drove away, and the self-driving vehicle started again. The test engineer told us that the self-driving system can be divided into four subsystems: perception, sensing, decision-making, and execution. The "perception" system is similar to the human eye, and it can "see" the surrounding obstacles through devices such as laser radar, millimeter radar, and surround car cameras. The "sensing" system is composed of a CAN bus, which is similar to the human nerve center. It can transmit what it perceives to the brain, and the brain's execution command can be sent to the torso in the first time. The "decision-making" system is similar to the human brain, consisting of an ECU and memory with powerful computing power, and running artificial intelligence with deep learning capabilities. The "execution" system is a fusion system that is connected to the vehicle's power, chassis, and operating system through "algorithms."

　　"Take obstacle avoidance as an example. The autonomous driving 'perception' system determines the location of the obstacle, the vehicle's speed and its relative relationship with other surrounding objects. The 'sensing' system transmits the data to the artificial intelligence, which selects the most appropriate decision, and the decision controls the vehicle through the execution system to achieve the purpose of avoiding obstacles." The test engineer told us. When we drove to the uphill section, the autonomous driving vehicle had already monitored the road conditions ahead and slowly accelerated to pass. The whole driving process was quite comfortable.

　　No need to take a driver's license test? Fewer parking spaces needed

　　According to a report by the US market research company Navigant, the global market size of driverless cars has reached 5 billion US dollars, and will reach 6.5 billion US dollars by 2035, with an average annual growth rate of 56%. By then, 75% of new cars will be equipped with fully automated driverless modules. The US automotive information consulting company IHS believes that China may become its largest market in the future.

　　"Autonomous driving will be the biggest transformation the automotive industry has faced in 131 years. It will be another new technological revolution in the industry after steam, electricity, and information!" Huang Shaotang, CTO of GAC Group's Automotive Engineering Research Institute and director of the Intelligent Connected Center, told reporters.

　　Huang Shaotang, one of the first batch of Chinese automotive talents sent to study in the United States, has worked at General Motors for more than 20 years, engaged in the development and management of electronic and electrical systems, and is a "technology geek". Those who share the same view as Huang Shaotang include Toyota's Akio Toyoda, Tesla's Musk, Baidu's Robin Li, Geely's Li Shufu, Volkswagen's Mueller, and Ford's former CEO Fields.

　　Li Shufu, Chairman of Geely Group, told reporters that autonomous driving can effectively reduce traffic accident mortality and improve road safety. Data shows that 95% of traffic accidents are related to human driving errors. Honda Motor Co., Ltd. President Hachigo Takahiro holds the same view that autonomous driving can correct the mistakes of human drivers and create a "zero accident" society.

　　Autonomous driving can also improve fuel economy by up to 15% to 20%. At the same time, GM is testing its Super Cruise system in the United States, which shows that the distance between the front and rear vehicles can be effectively controlled within 5 meters at a speed not exceeding 100 kilometers per hour, which will further solve the problem of traffic congestion.

　　The changes brought about by autonomous driving go far beyond this.

　　Japanese scholar Ryosuke Izumida wrote in his book "How Driverless Technology Will Change Our Lives" that a country's supervisory agencies, financial and communications industries, energy, electricity, transportation, and even the social norms and industrial structure that constitute the social system may be greatly affected.

　　When a large number of office workers give up their original means of transportation and take self-driving cars instead, the object of auto insurance business will no longer be the car owner, but the car manufacturer; the oil fee will be replaced by electricity fee, and gas stations will be demolished; people will not even get a driver's license or buy a car, and cars will be shared and used in a large area in a city, greatly improving the efficiency of use.

　　How to improve the safety of autonomous driving?

　　Although the world is optimistic about autonomous driving, it is inevitable that there are still many controversies. Among them, the biggest controversy is the safety of autonomous driving.

　　In May 2016, a Tesla Model S in autopilot mode collided with a truck in Florida, USA, and the driver was killed in the accident. This was the first fatal autopilot accident announced worldwide, which triggered a wide-ranging discussion on the safety of autopilot functions.

　　How to eliminate this huge uncertainty and further improve the safety of autonomous driving? At present, the proven effective method is to set the autonomous driving to use in fixed scenarios, such as highway cruising, following a car in a congested environment, and finding a parking space in a parking lot. Taking highway cruising as an example, the driver can take his hands off the steering wheel, and the vehicle can automatically complete tasks such as tracking, following a car, and changing lanes under the control of the autonomous driving system - but only on highways. Once entering rural roads, autonomous driving cannot ensure safety.

　　Using an autonomous driving system in a fixed scenario is, to some extent, a transitional technology or a compromise solution. Its advantages are that it can effectively improve the comfort of the vehicle, reduce driving fatigue, is easy for users to accept, can reach an understanding with social norms, and reduce corporate R&D investment. The disadvantage is that people still need to intervene in an emergency, and human control is put first.

　　More and more automobile companies and research institutions choose to use autonomous driving systems only in fixed scenarios. In addition to GAC Research Institute, there are also traditional car companies such as Toyota, Honda, and General Motors, because this model can gain more support in terms of consumer awareness, support, and service levels, and is in line with the development of technological trends.

　　"The safety of autonomous driving should always be put first, even at the expense of some usage scenarios. Only with safety can we talk about achievements and disruption," Huang Shaotang said to his autonomous driving team.

　　L3 mass-produced vehicles will explode in 2020

　　Despite controversies and challenges, it is an indisputable fact that autonomous driving has changed the way we travel, and has attracted global auto giants and technology companies to rush into the market.

　　At the 2017 Tokyo Motor Show, Toyota showcased its latest autonomous driving technology, with the new slogan "Start Your Impossible", striving to redefine mobility. Judging from the autonomous driving roadmap released by Honda, Honda has already achieved the level of autonomous driving on highways, and demonstrated it to the outside world through a Type R high-speed engine test drive at this year's Honda Meeting. On January 12, 2018, General Motors officially announced that the fourth-generation Cruise autonomous car will be put into use in 2019.

　　As for Volkswagen, BMW and Mercedes-Benz, they announced their ambitious corporate strategies at this year's Frankfurt Motor Show, among which all the keywords such as pure electric vehicles, autonomous driving and China were all mentioned. Ford even lowered its profile this year and established a new joint venture with Zotye; it also cooperated with Baidu to accelerate the development of autonomous driving and localization in China. Using new energy and autonomous driving as a stepping stone to open up the future Chinese auto market is the best solution that can be determined at present.

　　"Since China has overall advantages in artificial intelligence, high-precision maps, and the entire Internet industry chain, autonomous driving is very likely to become an opportunity for China to surpass Europe and the United States." Huang Shaotang said: "In the industry, the concentrated outbreak of autonomous driving will be around 2020, and GAC's L3-level autonomous driving cars will be mass-produced by the end of 2019."

　　Last month, Beijing announced that it would allow self-driving vehicles to be tested on the road. Is self-driving still far away?

　　Technology experts talk

　　Geely's Li Shufu:

　　Calls for legislation for autonomous driving

　　Li Shufu, chairman of Geely Group, has proposed autonomous driving and called for legislation more than once. Chinese brands have accumulated more technology in autonomous driving than global automakers, and their leading advantage is even greater than that of new energy vehicles.

　　Bill Ford:

　　Chinese people are more optimistic about autonomous driving

　　Last year, Ford Motor CEO Bill Ford announced a massive "2025 Strategy" for China, in which autonomous driving was listed as an important part of the strategy. Ford conducted a global market research, and the results showed that Chinese people are more optimistic about autonomous driving than Americans.

　　Huang Shaotang from GAC Research Institute:

　　Ensure riding comfort

　　"Autonomous driving is first a car and only secondarily a technology. Ensuring the riding comfort of people is the starting point of autonomous driving."

　　Toyota Motor Corporation:

　　Driving pleasure can never be ignored

　　Kiyotaka Ise, president of Toyota Advanced Technology Development, said: "The driving pleasure of a car can never be ignored. Toyota's autonomous driving emphasizes the perception, learning and detection of people."

　　Baidu's Robin Li:

　　Self-driving will eliminate drunk driving

　　Baidu Chairman Robin Li once said: "When I was having dinner with a group of friends at night, they talked about driverless cars and gave me an idea. He said you should make an advertisement with a scene of everyone drinking together in a car. Because with driverless cars, there will be no drunk driving."

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