China will become the first country in the world that does not need to mine raw materials for batteries

A team led by Professor Stephan von Delft, a commercial chemist at the University of Münster in Germany, concluded that China would become the first country in the world to meet its battery raw material needs through recycling alone. They also determined that all regions, including Europe and the United States, could accelerate this development.

As production of electric vehicle batteries increases, demand for the necessary raw materials is rising. Given the supply chain risks, environmental issues and precarious working conditions associated with the mining and transportation of these materials, the recycling of battery materials has become a significant issue in research, politics and industry.

Germany Professor Stephan von Delft of the University of Münster leads a team of researchers from the scientific, automotive and battery industries who have been studying when the demand for the three most important raw materials for batteries - lithium, cobalt and nickel - can be met entirely through recycling in Europe, the United States and China; in other words, when a fully circular economy will be possible in these regions one day. The team concluded that China will achieve this goal first, followed by Europe and the United States.

Specifically, the findings, published in the journal Resources, Conservation and Recycling, show that China is expected to meet its demand for lithium for electric vehicles, previously obtained through mining, from 2059 onwards through recycling; in Europe and the US, this will not happen until after 2070. For cobalt, recycling is expected to ensure that China can meet its needs after 2045 at the earliest; in Europe, this will happen in 2052 and in the US until 2056. As for nickel: China may meet its needs through recycling as early as 2046, Europe in 2058 and the US until 2064.

While earlier studies have looked at the supply and demand of raw materials for battery recycling, it has so far been unclear when a full cycle will be achieved where supply and demand equalise (the 'break-even point'). The team also examined the question of whether it might be possible to reach equilibrium sooner than current developments predict.

"Our research shows that a faster electrification of the automotive industry in particular, as is currently being discussed in the EU, will play a role in this process," says Stephan von Delft. "The faster electric vehicles become popular across the automotive market, the sooner a sufficient number of batteries will be available for recycling."

Doctoral student Jannis Wesselkämper adds: "The demand for raw materials can also be met earlier through recycling, as battery size becomes smaller and the so-called 'second life' of the battery – for example as a stationary energy storage unit for solar energy – is avoided."

The researchers used a so-called dynamic material flow analysis to calculate future demand and the then-current availability of recyclable raw materials. The data base used by the team included data from current research work as well as market forecasts on the development of battery production and sales and the associated demand for raw materials.

(Source: University of Münster Global Lithium Battery Network, New Energy Network)