Latest data: Inverter exports in September fell month-on-month?! European export growth rate recovered

Recently, the General Administration of Customs released the import and export data of inverters in September 2023. According to the customs data:

In September 2023, the export volume of inverters was 3.9094 million, a year-on-year decrease of 22.8% and a month-on-month decrease of 2.8%;

The import volume was 186,300 units, a year-on-year decrease of 21.3% and a month-on-month increase of 15.5%.

The cumulative export volume from January to September 2023 was 41.4178 million units, an increase of 17.8% year-on-year.

By province, Guangdong exported 1.377 million units, down 31.59% year-on-year and 8.5% month-on-month. Major companies include Huawei, Growatt, Sofar New Energy, KSTAR, and Hopewind. Exports continued to decline month-on-month in the third quarter, and shipments were greatly affected by European inventory and slowing demand in major European markets.

Zhejiang exported 1.7346 million units, down 10.75% year-on-year and 0.01% month-on-month. Major companies include Jinlong, Deye, Homax, APSC, and Aero. European household solar storage stocks are still being destocked, demand is slowing, and export volume remains stable.

Jiangsu exported 273,600 units in total, up 10.58% year-on-year and 18.71% month-on-month. Major enterprises include GoodWe, Sineng Electric, and AISWEI. After the month-on-month recovery of exports in August, the export growth rate has begun to increase.

Anhui exported a total of 130,300 units, a year-on-year increase of 68.92% and a month-on-month increase of 30.63%. The main companies were Sungrow Power Supply's domestic base and GoodWe's Guangde factory. The leading companies maintained a high level of exports of centralized inverters.

From the perspective of export countries, inverters were exported to 187 countries and regions in September 2023.

A total of 961,500 units were exported to Europe, accounting for 24.6%, an increase of 1.06% month-on-month.

A total of 999,900 units were exported to Africa, accounting for 25.6%, a decrease of 11.07% from the previous month.

The top ten exporting countries exported a total of 2.1161 million units, accounting for 45.87%.

The top five countries in terms of export trade volume are the United States, the Netherlands, Germany, Kenya and Mozambique.

In September, the export trade volume of the United States was 343,100, an increase of 2.5% from the previous month and a decrease of 27.67% from the previous year;

The export trade volume of the Netherlands was 333,100 units, down 15.81% from the previous month and 42.65% from the previous year.

Germany's export trade volume was 222,800 units, up 18.51% from the previous month and 23.7% from the previous year.

Kenya's export trade volume was 149,400 units, up 114.49% from the previous month and 105.58% from the previous year.

Mozambique's export trade volume was 144,800 units, a month-on-month increase of 20.49% and a year-on-year increase of 180.72%.

Europe's overall import volume slowed down significantly in the third quarter. The high inventory of photovoltaic energy storage inverters and the lower-than-expected installation rate seriously affected the shipment of domestic inverter companies to Europe.

In September, the month-on-month growth rate of Europe's export trade volume turned from negative to positive compared with August, indicating that after three months of inventory digestion, inventories have gradually returned to normal levels and overseas shipments have improved.

In the European market, although the export trade volume of the Netherlands continued to decline month-on-month, and the pressure of port and channel inventory still exists, the decline has narrowed. Germany's export trade volume increased significantly in September. It is expected that the inventory in the German market will be well liquidated, and the demand in the fourth quarter will start soon, which will increase the demand for distributed and centralized inverters.

In September, Germany added 919MW of photovoltaic systems, a year-on-year increase of 22.5%. Germany has exceeded its target for new photovoltaic installations this year. Driven by its renewable energy transformation goals, its demand for photovoltaic installations will continue to grow linearly.

In the American market in September, the month-on-month growth rate of US imports turned from negative to positive, and demand grew steadily.

According to the author's understanding, domestic inverter companies are also planning to enter the US market, but due to the high difficulty of product certification in the US market, the progress is slow. Mexico and Brazil are also hot markets for photovoltaics in the Americas this year. Driven by renewable energy goals and growing energy demand, there is sufficient potential for photovoltaic development.

In September, the export trade volume of Asian market countries increased by 3.2% year-on-year, among which the export trade volume of Japan, South Korea and India increased significantly. India increased by 28% month-on-month, Japan increased by 60.5% month-on-month, and South Korea increased by 120.5% month-on-month.

The Japanese and Korean markets are mature photovoltaic markets. The installed capacity growth this year has been slow, with a significant decline compared to last year. However, the fourth quarter is usually the peak period for installation and grid connection in this market, and there is a strong certainty of demand growth. High demand has increased the import volume of inverters.

The export trade volume in the African market decreased in September compared with the previous month. This is because after the power shortage problem in South Africa was alleviated, it began to gradually get rid of the power restriction in the third quarter, and the growth rate of photovoltaic installation demand declined.

In addition to South Africa, countries such as Kenya, Cameroon, Tanzania, and Mozambique have now become emerging photovoltaic markets in Africa.

These countries are also facing electricity shortages, and the transition to renewable energy is imminent. The demand for photovoltaic power generation is increasing, and the government is increasing its investment in the field of renewable energy. Due to the planning of large-scale projects and the continued increase in demand for household grid-connected and off-grid photovoltaic systems, the import volume of inverters has also increased significantly.