Decarbonizing transportation will require a rapid and massive expansion of electric vehicle production, which in turn requires an expansion of battery mineral mining and refining. Batteries are also increasingly needed to expand the deployment of renewable energy in an efficient and effective manner. Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, a leading organization that tracks and analyzes lithium market information, has concluded that the lithium market will need to expand to 25 times or more its 2021 level by 2050.
While much focus has been on the electric vehicle market and all the lithium that will be required, Benchmark Mineral Intelligence believes that stationary energy storage will be the main driver of demand by then – with a third of the 11.2 million tonnes of lithium expected to be produced annually by then going to stationary energy storage .
Analysts predict that LCE (lithium carbonate equivalent) production will reach 2.9 million tonnes per year by 2032. Considering that, from 2015 to 2022, a total of 2.7 million tonnes of LCE were produced. By 2040, it is expected that one month of lithium demand will be equivalent to all the battery-grade lithium produced in the entire year of 2021.
Simon Moores, CEO of Benchmark, explained: “The long-term path for lithium is set, but the challenge of scaling the supply chain is only just beginning. These figures suggest we are at the beginning of a generational challenge, not one that will be solved in the 2020s.”
Benchmark understands that by 2022, 40 lithium mines are already in production producing lithium. The company estimates that without battery recycling, an additional 234 lithium mines would need to be built by 2050 (which is, of course, completely unrealistic, but it’s the starting point for this analysis). On the recycling side, “Benchmark predicts that by 2040, nearly 20% of lithium chemicals will be produced from recycled batteries or process waste .” Currently and in the near future, due to the relatively small number of older electric vehicles on the road, very little of the recycled lithium comes from recycled electric vehicle batteries — instead, it mostly comes from process waste. It estimates that starting sometime in the mid-2030s, lithium from recycled batteries will account for the largest share, and then grow from there.
Benchmark also notes that EV battery demand accounted for 39% of total battery demand in 2015, but this year that share has risen to 79%. However, as mentioned above, Benchmark expects that by 2050, 67% of battery demand will come from the stationary energy storage market, with only 33% coming from the EV battery market . Still, with the EU aiming to sell no fossil fuel vehicles by 2050 and China looking to achieve 100% “new energy vehicle” sales by 2060, the EV market will need to see a significant increase in EV battery production.
“It is critical for traditional OEMs, EV producers and battery manufacturers to make big and sometimes uncomfortable decisions about investing in long-term supplies of critical minerals, especially lithium,” said Moores. “If they don’t, automakers won’t be able to build EVs, governments won’t be able to deliver net-zero emissions by 2050, and market volatility will persist for longer.”
(Source: Benchmark Global Lithium Battery Network, Global Energy Storage Network, New Energy Network)
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