The industry predicts: There is a high probability that short-term power cuts will not occur again this year

China Energy Storage Network News: "The power outages during last year's peak electricity consumption will not occur this year", "The national electricity supply and demand situation will be generally balanced in 2022", "Supply and demand will be tight in some areas." In recent interviews with reporters, industry insiders generally stated that there is a high probability that short-term power outages will not occur this year, nor will the supply and demand chaos of "suddenly not enough electricity" reappear.

To prepare for a rainy day, energy authorities in Guangdong, Yunnan, Hebei, Eastern Inner Mongolia, Western Inner Mongolia, Guizhou and other places have recently issued notices to deploy orderly electricity consumption.

For example, Zhongshan City in Guangdong Province recently clarified that relevant power users should implement peak-shifting and peak-avoiding electricity consumption according to the current plan, and those who exceed the planned electricity consumption will be subject to mandatory power restriction measures on the user side; Yunnan Province and Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region both require that orderly power consumption should be carried out in principle in the order of first peak-shifting, then peak-avoiding, then power restriction, and finally power outage, so that power restriction does not pull the power outage, and power restriction does not limit civilian use; the Western Inner Mongolia region clarified that orderly power consumption should be carried out in batches according to the level of power gap. When the power gap in the entire network exceeds 10 million kilowatts, the rotation suspension plan for the Western Inner Mongolia region will be implemented; Hebei Province clarified that when the demand response reduction capacity is exceeded, the remaining supply shortage will first limit the power consumption of "two high" enterprises. When the restrictions on "two high" enterprises have been in place and balance cannot be achieved, orderly power consumption will be implemented for other users.

A relevant person in charge of the Inner Mongolia Electric Power Group admitted in an interview with reporters that the original intention of deploying the 2022 orderly electricity consumption plan is to ensure the electricity safety of important loads such as people's livelihood through the implementation of orderly electricity consumption when the electricity supply is tight, and at the same time reasonably control the electricity consumption of high-energy-consuming enterprises such as restricted and eliminated types, to ensure the safe and stable operation of the power grid when the electricity supply and demand are tight.

"The implementation of orderly electricity consumption is very necessary and of great significance." Liu Yanan, deputy director of the marketing department of State Grid Shunping County Power Supply Company, also emphasized to reporters that when tight electricity balance and supply gaps occur, the two methods of demand-side response and orderly electricity consumption can be used to optimize the allocation of electricity resources to maintain normal electricity supply and consumption order and ensure reliable electricity supply for residents' lives, public services and important users.

Many industry insiders said that the national electricity consumption and peak electricity load are expected to continue to grow rapidly in 2022. During the peak summer period this year, the supply and demand of electricity will be generally balanced, and the supply and demand of electricity will be tight in some areas during peak hours.

For example, the Hunan Provincial Development and Reform Commission recently clarified that the overall supply and demand of electricity during the peak summer season is in a "tight balance"; the Hebei Provincial Development and Reform Commission stated that the maximum gap in the Hebei Southern Power Grid is expected to be 2.7 million kilowatts in summer and 3 million kilowatts in winter in 2022. In the event of extreme weather or failure of interconnection lines between power grids, the gap may further increase.

The China Electricity Council predicts that my country's total electricity consumption will increase by 5%-6% year-on-year in 2022. Among them, the power supply and demand in East China, Central China and South China are tight.

Some business insiders also pointed out that due to the impact of the epidemic, many companies have suspended production, and the energy supply situation is not severe at present.

Chen Haoyong, director of the Institute of Power Economics and Power Market at South China University of Technology, said that the export dividends brought about by the pandemic have been exhausted, and the power load in economically developed coastal provinces such as Guangdong and Jiangsu has now declined. "At present, it is the inland provinces that are facing tight power supply and demand."

In order to fight a "prepared battle" to meet the peak summer demand, many interviewees told reporters that it is necessary to innovate demand response methods, tap high-quality adjustable load resources, and expand the scale of demand-side participation in the market and ensure supply operations.

"In accordance with the requirements of the competent departments of the autonomous region, we have completed the preparation of the "Inner Mongolia Power Grid Demand Side Response Implementation Plan (Discussion Draft)", and at the same time completed the statistics of users of the adjustable resource library and reported it to the Autonomous Region Energy Bureau. The next step will be to set up a demand-side response center as required, build a demand-side response platform, refine various rules and regulations and processes, further improve the demand-side response market rules, and sort out the adjustable loads of users of the adjustable resource library, and cooperate with enterprises to install load control devices." The above-mentioned person in charge of the Inner Mongolia Electric Power Group told reporters.

Chen Haoyong pointed out that at this stage, in addition to tapping into demand-side response resources, it is also necessary to think about the problem from a global perspective. "Meeting the peak summer demand is no longer just a matter for the power industry. Last year's sharp fluctuations in power supply and demand reflected systemic problems. In the context of carbon peak and carbon neutrality, the high proportion of renewable energy grid connection requires high system flexibility, but to improve the flexibility and reliability of the entire power system, it is necessary to couple coal, oil and gas, new energy, and power grids, which cannot be achieved overnight."