Academician Zhou Xiaoxin: Development prospects and key technologies of my country's energy and power system under the "dual carbon" goal

China Energy Storage Network: In order to cope with the challenges brought by global climate change, ecological and environmental protection, and high-quality economic and social development, China has always adhered to the energy transformation strategy. At the sixth meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Leading Group held in June 2014, General Secretary Xi Jinping proposed a new energy security strategy of "four revolutions and one cooperation", leading the development of China's energy industry into a new era; standing at a new historical position, facing the increasingly complex international situation and the increasingly severe challenges of climate change, on September 22, 2020, President Xi Jinping announced at the general debate of the 75th United Nations General Assembly that "China will increase its national independent contribution, adopt more powerful policies and measures, strive to peak carbon dioxide emissions before 2030, and strive to achieve carbon neutrality before 2060"; on December 12, 2020, in his speech at the Climate Ambition Summit, he further The first step proposed the key indicators of "By 2030, China's carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP will be more than 65% lower than in 2005, and the proportion of non-fossil energy in primary energy consumption will reach about 25%, and "the total installed capacity of wind power and solar power generation will reach more than 1.2 billion kilowatts"; On March 15, 2021, the Ninth Meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission clarified that the "14th Five-Year Plan" is a critical period and window period for carbon peak. The first key task to be implemented is "to build a clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient energy system, control the total amount of fossil energy, focus on improving utilization efficiency, implement renewable energy substitution actions, deepen power system reform, and build a new power system with new energy as the main body."

Under the guidance of this series of national strategic plans, the development blueprint and key technical approaches of my country's future energy and power system have a clear orientation, that is, to take "carbon peak before 2030 and carbon neutrality before 2060" as the strategic goal, and to implement "building a clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient energy system, and building a new power system with new energy as the main body" as the implementation path. This paper proposes the main characteristics and core indicators of the new power system, constructs the development scenario of my country's energy and power system under the "dual carbon" goal, and proposes and explains the concept of integrated energy production units, in order to provide a certain reference for energy transformation path planning and strategy formulation.

Main features and core indicators of new power system

As the core component of my country's future energy system, the new power system has five main characteristics:

First, a high proportion of renewable energy is widely connected. Non-fossil energy in primary energy consumption mainly comes from primary electricity (renewable energy such as hydropower, wind power, solar power, and nuclear power, etc.). Substantially increasing the proportion of renewable energy electricity, mainly wind, light and other new energy sources, is an important symbol of the upgrading of the power system and the main support for achieving energy transformation;

Second, a high proportion of power electronic equipment is widely used. Compared with traditional electromagnetic conversion equipment, power electronic equipment has significant differences in physical structure, control mode, dynamic behavior, equipment interaction, etc. With ultra-large-scale AC and DC transmission and a large number of new energy units connected to the system, the number and scope of power electronic equipment applications are constantly increasing, which will profoundly affect the operation characteristics of the power system;

The third is the comprehensive utilization of multi-energy complementarity. With the high integration of multi-industry and multi-type technologies, the connotation and scope of the power system will continue to expand, giving full play to the platform role of diversified resource allocation, promoting the coordinated complementarity of wind, light, water, coal, etc., and the comprehensive utilization of electricity, heat, cold and gas, so as to realize the on-demand, reasonable and efficient development and utilization of energy resources;

Fourth, the development of digital, intelligent and smart energy. Advanced digital and intelligent technologies will be widely used in the design, planning and dispatching control of all aspects of the future energy and power system, forming an efficient and user-friendly smart energy system;

Fifth, clean, efficient, low-carbon and zero-carbon transformation. As the core means to support the realization of the "dual carbon" goals, the construction of a new power system should be based on clean, efficient and low-carbon development as the fundamental development orientation, improve the level of new energy development and utilization, improve the overall energy utilization efficiency of the system, reduce carbon dioxide emissions, and lay a solid foundation for the overall energy transformation.

In order to further quantify the above characteristics and reflect the important role of the new power system in energy transformation, the author proposes the following five core indicators: the proportion of non-fossil energy in primary energy consumption, the proportion of non-fossil energy power generation in power generation, the proportion of electricity in terminal energy consumption, the overall energy utilization efficiency of the system, and the total carbon dioxide emissions of the energy and power system.

Scenario analysis of my country's energy and power system development under the "dual carbon" goal

A scientific and reasonable power supply structure is the core framework for planning the transformation path of the power system, and is also the basis for system analysis, cognition, operation and dispatch, and technical layout. Based on my country's energy transformation strategy, we construct a scenario for the development of my country's energy and power system under the "dual carbon" goal, and make an estimated analysis of the evolution trend of my country's energy and power structure from 2021 to 2060.

The 40-year period from 2021 to 2060 is divided into three time periods: 2020-2030, 2030-2050, and 2050-2060, namely the first, middle and last time periods. The overall development demand for energy and electricity under the "dual carbon" goal is set. my country's total primary energy consumption and the proportion of non-fossil energy consumption from 2020 to 2060 are shown in Figure 1, and the changing trend of total electricity consumption in the whole society is shown in Figure 2.

Figure 1 my country's total primary energy consumption and non-fossil energy share from 2020 to 2060

Figure 2 Trends in my country's total electricity consumption from 2020 to 2060

In terms of the total primary energy consumption indicator, from 2020 to 2030 (the first part), considering the rigid growth demand of the economic and social development level, it will still maintain a growth rate of 400-500 million tons of standard coal every 5 years, reaching about 5.5 billion tons by the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan, and reaching a peak of 5.9 billion tons around 2030, and then showing a downward trend; from 2030 to 2050 (the middle part), it will decrease by 100 million tons every 5 years in the first 15 years, and will basically remain stable after dropping to 5.6 billion tons in 2045; from 2050 to 2060 (the latter part), there is still room for a slight decline, and it will remain at around 5.5 billion tons in 2060.

In terms of the proportion of non-fossil energy consumption, it generally shows a trend of stable growth in the front and back stages and accelerated growth in the middle stage. Before 2030 (the front stage), considering that the current technological development level in new energy power generation, safe and stable operation control of power grids, and energy storage has not yet made breakthrough progress, flexible adjustment resources and technical means are still relatively scarce, and it is impossible to fully support the high proportion of renewable energy access and large-scale application. Traditional power generation units such as coal-fired power still need to provide important basic guarantees. Non-fossil energy is mainly consumed in the form of primary electricity. Therefore, the proportion of non-fossil energy consumption in total primary energy consumption during this period should maintain a relatively stable growth rate to avoid excessive growth. In order to cope with the impact of rapid growth on the safety and stability of the power system and ensure a smooth transition of energy supply, this indicator will reach 20% at the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan and 25% in 2030, meeting the latest national target requirements; from 2030 to 2050 (middle section), non-fossil energy will accelerate development, and its share in primary energy consumption will increase rapidly, from 25% to 75% in 20 years. We will strive to create the basic conditions for achieving carbon neutrality by 2060 by 2050; from 2050 to 2060 (latter section), it will still maintain a certain rate of steady growth on the basis of a relatively high level, reaching 90% in 2060, providing important support for the realization of the carbon neutrality goal.

In terms of the total electricity consumption indicator of the whole society, taking into account factors such as electrification, the overall growth is maintained and the speed shows a "high at the beginning and low at the end" trend. During the "14th Five-Year Plan" and "15th Five-Year Plan" periods (the first part), it maintains a stable growth at an average annual growth rate of 4.5% and 3.5% respectively, reaching 11.1 trillion kWh in 2030; from 2030 to 2050 (the middle part), the average annual growth rate gradually declines, and the total electricity consumption of the whole society will be about 15 trillion kWh in 2045, twice the current level, and about 16 trillion kWh in 2050; from 2050 to 2060 (the second part), the growth rate will slow down further, and the average annual growth rate will be only 1% between 2050 and 2055, and it will basically remain stable and no longer grow after 2055.