Institutional forecast: The global photovoltaic inverter market size will grow from 45.8 billion to 109.6 billion in the next five years

1. In 2021, global photovoltaics will enter a period of rapid growth with parity development. The China Photovoltaic Association predicts that during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, the global photovoltaic industry will grow at an average annual rate of 287GW (CAGR 16%), and the domestic installed capacity will reach 90GW (CAGR 22%), achieving leapfrog development.

Second, in 2019, my country's inverter production accounted for more than 80% of the global market, and exports accounted for more than 45% of the world's total, but the revenue of the top six Chinese companies only accounted for 30% of the world's total. The reason is that most domestic inverters are concentrated in the low-priced domestic market and overseas ground power station market, mainly covering the track with the lowest unit price and profitability. However, Chinese companies still have huge development potential in the high-value-added blue ocean markets such as overseas industrial and commercial distributed and household use.

3. By comparing the financial data of overseas peer companies in the household and commercial and industrial distributed product sectors, it can be found that there is no obvious difference in manufacturing costs and gross profit margins between Chinese and foreign companies. Future competition will mainly revolve around R&D technology, channel construction and cost control capabilities.

4. Looking ahead to the price trends and demand of the global inverter industry in the next five years, we predict that the global new photovoltaic installed capacity will increase from 122GW in 2020 to 346GW in 2025 (CAGR 13%), and the photovoltaic inverter market size will increase from 45.8 billion yuan to 109.6 billion yuan accordingly.

5. We predict that in five years, the combined market share of the top five Chinese companies in terms of industry shipments excluding Huawei (Sungrow, Solis Technology, GoodWe, Sineng Electric, etc.) will increase from 15% in 2019 to 30%, and from 8.8 billion yuan to 32.4 billion yuan, with an average annual compound growth rate of 21%.