Analysis and forecast report on national power supply and demand situation in the first quarter of 2020

China Energy Storage Network: In the first quarter, the sudden outbreak of the COVID-19 epidemic brought an unprecedented impact on China's economic and social development. The power industry has thoroughly studied and implemented General Secretary Xi Jinping's series of important speeches and instructions on coordinating the prevention and control of the epidemic and economic and social development, resolutely implemented the decisions and arrangements of the Party Central Committee and the State Council, actively promoted the prevention and control of the epidemic and the resumption of work and production of power companies, provided strong power guarantee for social prevention and control of the epidemic and the resumption of work and production, ensured sufficient and reliable power supply, and actively implemented phased price cuts to reduce users' power costs.

1. National electricity supply and demand in the first quarter of 2020

1. The total electricity consumption decreased year-on-year, with the decline narrowing significantly in March.

In the first quarter, the total electricity consumption in the country was 1.57 trillion kWh, down 6.5% from the same period last year. According to preliminary estimates, the COVID-19 epidemic affected the total electricity consumption in the first quarter by about 170 billion kWh. As the domestic epidemic is gradually brought under control, enterprises in various industries are accelerating the resumption of work and production, and the impact of the epidemic on electricity consumption has significantly weakened. In March, the total electricity consumption in the society decreased by 4.2% year-on-year, narrowing the decline by 5.9 percentage points from February.

First, the electricity consumption of the primary industry increased by 4.0% year-on-year, and the electricity consumption of animal husbandry and fishery increased rapidly. In the first quarter, the electricity consumption of the primary industry was 16.7 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 4.0%, among which the electricity consumption of agriculture, animal husbandry and fishery increased by 0.4%, 8.2% and 10.4% respectively.

Second, the electricity consumption of the secondary industry decreased by 8.8% year-on-year, and the decline in March narrowed significantly. In the first quarter, the electricity consumption of the secondary industry was 997.1 billion kWh, a year-on-year decrease of 8.8%, of which February and March decreased by 14.6% and 3.1% year-on-year respectively, and the decline in March narrowed by 11.5 percentage points compared with February. Industrial electricity consumption was 979.4 billion kWh, a year-on-year decrease of 8.7%. The electricity consumption of the manufacturing industry decreased by 9.1% year-on-year, among which the electricity consumption of the four major manufacturing industries, including the four high-energy-consuming industries, high-tech and equipment manufacturing, consumer goods manufacturing, and other manufacturing industries, decreased by 5.0%, 14.8%, 18.5%, and 8.9% year-on-year respectively. The electricity consumption of high-energy-consuming industries such as non-ferrous and ferrous metals was relatively less affected by the epidemic; in March, the decline in electricity consumption of the four major manufacturing industries was significantly narrowed compared with February, among which the declines in high-tech and equipment manufacturing and consumer goods manufacturing were narrowed by 17.0 and 19.3 percentage points respectively.

Third, the electricity consumption of the tertiary industry decreased by 8.3% year-on-year, while the electricity consumption of the information transmission/software and information technology service industry maintained a rapid growth. In the first quarter, the electricity consumption of the tertiary industry was 262.8 billion kWh, a year-on-year decrease of 8.3%. Among them, the electricity consumption of the transportation/warehousing and postal industries decreased by 5.2%, the real estate industry decreased by 12.2%, the leasing and business services industry decreased by 14.4%, the wholesale and retail industry decreased by 15.5%, and the accommodation and catering industry decreased by 22.8%. Some technology service industries still maintained rapid growth. For example, the electricity consumption of the information transmission/software and information technology service industry increased by 27.0%, among which the growth rate of the Internet data service industry was as high as 92.3%, and the growth rate of the software and information technology service industry was as high as 71.5%. The electricity consumption of the charging and swapping service industry increased by 36.5%.

Fourth, the electricity consumption of urban and rural residents increased by 3.5% year-on-year, and the growth rate of electricity consumption of rural residents was significantly higher than that of urban residents. In the first quarter, the electricity consumption of urban and rural residents was 293.2 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 3.5%. The warm winter weather had a certain inhibitory effect on the growth of residents' heating load and electricity. In terms of urban and rural areas, the electricity consumption of urban residents decreased by 0.6%, while the electricity consumption of rural residents increased by 8.9%.

Fifth, electricity consumption in the western region increased slightly, while electricity consumption in the eastern and central regions decreased by about 10%. In the first quarter, the growth rates of electricity consumption in the eastern, central, western and northeastern regions were -9.9%, -10.1%, 0.2% and -0.7% respectively. Electricity consumption in seven provinces, including Yunnan, Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, Gansu, Qinghai, Jilin and Heilongjiang, achieved positive growth. In March, the decline in electricity consumption in five provinces, including Anhui, Jiangxi, Jiangsu, Henan and Zhejiang, narrowed by more than 15 percentage points compared with February.

2. Electricity supply continued to show a green and low-carbon development trend, and non-fossil energy power generation capacity maintained rapid growth

As of the end of March, the total installed capacity of power generation in China was 2.02 billion kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 5.7%, of which the total installed capacity of non-fossil energy power generation was 850 million kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 7.9%, accounting for 42.1% of the total installed capacity, an increase of 0.9 percentage points year-on-year. In the first quarter, the power generation of power plants above designated size in China was 1.58 trillion kilowatt-hours, a year-on-year decrease of 6.8%; the average utilization hours of power generation equipment in China was 815 hours, a year-on-year decrease of 104 hours; the total investment of major power companies in China was 96.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.3%.

First, the newly added installed capacity of power generation decreased year-on-year, while wind power investment grew rapidly. As of the end of March, the total installed capacity of hydropower in China was 360 million kilowatts, thermal power was 1.2 billion kilowatts, nuclear power was 48.77 million kilowatts, grid-connected wind power was 210 million kilowatts, and grid-connected solar power was 210 million kilowatts. In the first quarter, the country's newly added installed capacity of power generation was 13.56 million kilowatts, a year-on-year decrease of 4.33 million kilowatts; of which the newly added non-fossil energy installed capacity was 7.09 million kilowatts, accounting for 52.3% of the total newly added installed capacity of power generation. The major power companies included in the industry investment statistics system invested 28.1 billion yuan in wind power, a year-on-year increase of 185.9%.

Second, the generation of hydropower and thermal power declined significantly, while the generation of wind power and solar power maintained rapid growth. In the first quarter, the generation of hydropower and thermal power above designated size nationwide was 196.3 billion kWh and 1174.6 billion kWh, down 9.5% and 8.2% year-on-year respectively; nuclear power generation was 78 billion kWh, up 1.2% year-on-year; the full-caliber grid-connected wind power and solar power generation were 114.9 billion kWh and 52.8 billion kWh, up 10.4% and 20.3% year-on-year respectively.

Third, the utilization hours of solar power generation equipment increased slightly, while the utilization hours of other types of power generation equipment decreased year-on-year. In the first quarter, the utilization hours of grid-connected solar power generation equipment nationwide were 289 hours, an increase of 6 hours year-on-year. The utilization hours of hydropower equipment were 622 hours, a decrease of 69 hours year-on-year; the utilization hours of grid-connected wind power equipment were 548 hours, a decrease of 8 hours year-on-year; the utilization hours of nuclear power equipment were 1,599 hours, a decrease of 56 hours year-on-year; the utilization hours of thermal power equipment were 946 hours, a decrease of 137 hours year-on-year, of which coal-fired power was 969 hours, a decrease of 153 hours year-on-year.

Fourth, the capacity of new AC substation equipment and the length of transmission lines in infrastructure construction decreased year-on-year, while the amount of electricity transmitted across regions continued to grow. In the first quarter, the capacity of new 220 kV and above substation equipment in national infrastructure construction was 44.15 million kVA, a year-on-year decrease of 17.57 million kVA; the length of new 220 kV and above transmission lines was 3,855 kilometers, a year-on-year decrease of 1,890 kilometers. The total amount of electricity sent across provinces nationwide was 284.5 billion kWh, a year-on-year decrease of 5.2%, mainly due to the decrease in hydropower generation in Yunnan and Sichuan, and the reduction in electricity sent out; the amount of electricity sent across regions nationwide was 112.3 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 6.8%.