Thoughts on issues related to power development in the 14th Five-Year Plan

New energy continues to develop rapidly, and the problem of consumption should be taken seriously. New energy technology has advanced rapidly and costs have dropped significantly. In the past five years, the cost of wind power development and utilization has dropped by about 30%, and the price of photovoltaic modules has dropped by about half. It is expected that provinces with superior resources will be able to achieve grid parity as early as 2020. In the future, new energy will continue to develop rapidly. It is estimated that by 2025, the total installed capacity of wind power and solar power generation will reach 700 million kilowatts, and the proportion of power generation will be close to 15%, and some provinces will exceed 30%.

While my country's new energy is developing rapidly, there have been situations where the wind power abandonment rate has reached 17.2% and the solar power abandonment rate has reached 13.0%. In recent years, a series of measures have been taken to effectively alleviate the problem of power abandonment. However, in provinces and regions where the proportion of new energy power generation is high, the problem of power consumption is still relatively prominent. For example, in 2018, the proportion of new energy power generation in Gansu and Xinjiang was only 20% and 15%, and the wind power abandonment rate was as high as 19% and 23%, and the solar power abandonment rate was 10% and 16%, respectively. In the future, with the larger-scale development of new energy, the problem of power consumption should be given high attention. Solving the problem of new energy consumption involves multiple aspects such as power supply, power grid, users, policies, and technology. It is necessary to take multiple measures to improve the system regulation and absorption capacity. In the near future, on the power supply side, the system regulation capacity can be improved by implementing the flexibility transformation of coal-fired power and building various flexible power sources such as pumped storage power stations and natural gas peak-shaving power stations. On the power grid side, cross-regional power transmission channels will be built, the regional main grid and intelligent distribution network construction will be improved, and the role of the power grid basic platform will be used to implement multi-energy complementarity and cold, heat, and electricity joint intelligent dispatching, and make full use of cross-provincial regulation resources. On the user side, we will strengthen demand-side management, implement peak-valley time-of-use electricity prices, develop various types of flexible electricity loads and smart appliances, and achieve peak shifting and valley filling. In terms of market mechanisms, we will establish a renewable energy target guidance system, improve the auxiliary service compensation mechanism, start a green certificate trading mechanism, and adopt power generation rights trading and inter-provincial market trading. In the long run, we will further strengthen the research and development and promotion of large-capacity, high-efficiency, low-cost, and long-life energy storage technology, and make full use of the charging and discharging functions of electric vehicles to enhance the system regulation capabilities.

Promote the safe and efficient development of nuclear power and effectively replace coal-fired power generation. Nuclear power has comparative advantages over new energy and coal-fired power. In terms of economy, the on-grid electricity price of some nuclear power plants is lower than the local benchmark electricity price of desulfurized coal-fired power, and is also lower than the current cost of new energy and energy storage configuration; in terms of power generation characteristics, nuclear power has high energy density and stable output, and can bear the basic load alone, effectively replacing coal-fired power generation, which is conducive to the stability of the system; in terms of environmental protection, nuclear power does not emit greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, harmful gases such as sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxides, and pollutants such as dust. According to the current nuclear power construction situation, by 2020, the installed capacity of nuclear power will be about 53 million kilowatts. In order to effectively control the installed capacity of coal-fired power, we estimate that the installed capacity of nuclear power will reach 89 million and 137 million kilowatts in 2025 and 2030 respectively, and 6 to 8 nuclear power units will be put into operation each year.

In order to ensure the safe and efficient development of nuclear power and establish the brand advantage of nuclear power, it is recommended that the strategic position of nuclear power be established and the pace of nuclear power construction be maintained. In accordance with the two centenary development goals of the country, the strategic planning for the development of nuclear power in the new era should be studied, and the "Overall Development Strategy of Nuclear Power in 2035" should be organized to determine the development goals of each stage. Continue to strengthen independent research and development innovation to further enhance the independent capability. Second, it is necessary to increase support for nuclear power and improve relevant supporting policies. Provide financing policy support for nuclear power enterprises and promote the post-collection of nuclear power special construction funds and spent fuel disposal funds. Pricing should be based on the principle of cost plus reasonable profit to ensure that nuclear power is given priority to the grid, mainly based on base load operation, and improve utilization efficiency. Third, it is necessary to cultivate an excellent nuclear safety culture and establish a sound nuclear power standard system. Innovate the public communication model, strengthen nuclear power popularization, improve the nuclear science literacy of the whole people, and eliminate the public's nuclear fear. Strengthen the construction of nuclear power standardization, integrate domestic advantageous resources, form an industrial alliance in external promotion and brand building, establish a nuclear power "international team", and further enhance the ability to "go global".

Coordinated measures to promote high-quality development of hydropower in Southwest China. Sichuan, Yunnan and Tibet are extremely rich in hydropower resources, but the current development rate is less than 38%. Compared with developed countries, there is still a lot of room for development.

In recent years, the development of the hydropower industry has faced many problems, such as great pressure on ecological and environmental protection, high difficulty in resettlement of immigrants, and continuous increase in economic burden and construction costs. To this end, it is recommended to strengthen unified planning and overall coordination to achieve hydropower consumption in a larger area; strengthen the overall planning and construction of hydropower basins to improve the overall benefits of basins; strengthen immigration management and effectively implement the resettlement of hydropower immigrants; improve hydropower tax and fee policies to promote the healthy development of hydropower enterprises; increase financial policy support and accelerate the construction of hydropower in the southwest. It is estimated that by 2025, the installed capacity of conventional hydropower will reach 400 million kilowatts, of which hydropower in the southwest will account for more than 90% of the country's new capacity.

The role of coal-fired power in the system will shift to power supply for electricity and power regulation. my country's resource endowment, which is mainly coal, and coal-fired power are the best way to utilize coal in a clean, efficient, economical and convenient way. This determines that coal-fired power will continue to play an important role in my country's energy and power system for a certain period of time. In order to support the consumption of new energy on a larger scale and the operation of the system, coal-fired power units are required to provide more system regulation services and undertake more system peak regulation, frequency regulation, voltage regulation and standby functions. Their market positioning will gradually change from the traditional main power source that provides electricity to a power source that provides reliable capacity, electricity and flexibility regulation.

In the future, there is still room for the development of coal-fired power. The development space of coal-fired power must meet both the balance of electricity and the balance of power. From the perspective of electricity balance, the current utilization hours of coal-fired power are only about 4,300 hours, while the utilization hours of coal-fired power units themselves can reach 5,000 hours or even higher, and there is a large potential for electricity growth. Considering other new power sources, new coal-fired power projects can be arranged; from the perspective of power balance, due to the low effective capacity of new energy power generation. In order to meet the requirements of power balance, it is necessary to build a certain scale of thermal power (coal-fired power) installed capacity to "support the bottom line and ensure supply." We expect that the installed capacity of coal-fired power can be controlled within 1.2 to 1.25 billion kilowatts in 2025 and reach a peak in 2030.

The green and low-carbon transformation of energy is not simply to "de-coalize". The increase in coal-fired power generation does not mean an increase in carbon emissions. First, implement electricity substitution and optimize energy use. At present, my country still has about 700 million tons of coal directly burned for heating or providing heat load. The reduction of scattered coal burning for power generation has not increased carbon emissions. Second, through technological innovation, reduce the coal consumption of coal-fired power units. Third, serve new energy power generation and change the way coal-fired power is used. Coal-fired power "gives way" to new energy power generation, and the number of hours of use has dropped from 5030 hours in 2010 to the current 4300 hours, a decrease of 15%; with the large-scale development of new energy, the number of hours of coal-fired power will further decrease, and the carbon emissions of coal-fired power generation will show a clear downward trend. Calculation and analysis show that carbon emissions from coal-fired power have basically entered a plateau period and will peak in 2025, and will then decline rapidly.