The last chance for inverter manufacturers to redeem themselves: time is running out for the Chinese team

Inverters account for a small proportion of the photovoltaic system, but their status is very important. They are the only intelligent equipment in the system and have always been the focus of investors and installers. Inverter manufacturers are also very active in market promotion, writing articles, doing field promotion, forum speeches, and training academies. The popularization of photovoltaic science is almost always promoted by inverter manufacturers; inverters are the main sponsors of conferences at various forums; in the online voting session for manufacturer rankings launched by various forums, the number of votes for inverters is far higher than that for components.

From 2007 to 2018, domestic photovoltaic inverters have gone from simple imitation to the world's largest shipment. Looking at the development history of my country's inverter industry, it has experienced many difficulties and obstacles, but careful inference shows that the driving force from weak to strong is nothing more than technology and market promotion, which has promoted the technological progress and industrial upgrading of inverters. By 2018, with the development of distributed photovoltaics, all conventional technology upgrades and marketing methods have been exhausted. Many people believe that the inverter market has begun to solidify, and the first and second camps have occupied their respective market commanding heights, with a market share of more than 90%. Other manufacturers have little chance to become big. Is this really the case?

Let us first recall the history of domestic inverter technology and market promotion:

1. Technology promotion is actually a price war

Around 2010, many domestic power electronics manufacturers rushed into the market with the profit of 200%-300% on inverters, and played an absolute zero-sum game with foreign brands, and finally won a great victory. Domestic inverters used price as a weapon. In just two or three years, the price of centralized inverters dropped from 1.2 yuan/watt to 0.4 yuan/watt. After 2012, it was difficult to see foreign brands in the domestic market. Representative events were the bankruptcy of Saikang and the acquisition of Emerson's photovoltaic business by Sineng Electric.

After driving away the "foreign enemies", the domestic inverter industry is in chaos, and the main method is still price war. The photovoltaic market is still dominated by ground power stations. After this round of reshuffle, Huawei, Sungrow Power Supply, and Sineng Electric have gradually occupied 80% of the ground power station market share. Major customers such as the "five big and four small" power generation groups such as SDIC Power, Guohua Power, China Resources Power, and CGN are divided among the three companies. Other companies can only do some sporadic market share and it is difficult to pose a threat to the above three companies.

If the PV market had continued like this, the inverter market would have been solidified. However, in the second half of 2016, the distributed market suddenly exploded, catching many large manufacturers off guard, and the inverter market entered a chaotic stage again. As early as 2014, the national energy authorities took frequent actions to promote the healthy development of the distributed photovoltaic industry, from issuing guiding and normative policies to conducting research and holding various seminars. Local governments at all levels conscientiously implemented relevant policy requirements, took measures according to local conditions, issued incentives, and worked hard to innovate the development model of distributed photovoltaics. In 2014, the newly installed capacity was 10.6GW, and the distributed capacity was 2.05GW (many of which were large power stations). The effect was not very obvious. In 2015, the newly installed capacity was 15.13GW, and the distributed capacity was only 1.39GW. The development of distributed photovoltaics was unclear. Many manufacturers made mistakes in judging the situation and believed that distributed photovoltaics could not develop in China, and did not focus on the research and development and market promotion of household inverters, thus losing the opportunity.

2. Market driven, shifting from ground to distributed, changing marketing landscape

In 2016, the newly installed capacity was 34.54GW, and the newly installed capacity of distributed power was 4.24GW. In 2017, the newly installed capacity was 53.06GW, of which photovoltaic power stations were 33.62GW, an increase of 11% year-on-year; distributed photovoltaics were 19.44GW, an increase of 3.7 times year-on-year. In the second half of 2016, distributed photovoltaics suddenly exploded, which was beyond the expectations of many people. The customer base of distributed household photovoltaics was completely different from that of ground power stations. The original marketing methods were not used. The ones who had the right to speak were small and medium-sized installers, dealers or agents. Most of them were civilian enterprises and did not have much actual installation experience. The inverter companies that entered the market first, such as Growatt, Sanjing, and GoodWe, founded photovoltaic training classes, photovoltaic academies and other technical training institutions, and worked with installers to popularize science to the final owners, gaining a leading advantage in the market.

In the first quarter of 2018, the installed capacity of inverters exceeded 10GW, and the distributed capacity may be close to 7GW. According to expert estimates, the distributed capacity may reach more than 50% in 2018, and the competition in inverters has also reached a new height. From a technical point of view, the return rate of the top 5 inverters is less than 1%, the efficiency of high-power inverters generally exceeds 99%, and the cost is also less than 0.2 yuan/W, and the efficiency of low-power inverters generally exceeds 98%, and the cost is also less than 0.5 yuan/W, which has achieved the ultimate in quality and cost; in terms of marketing, each inverter manufacturer has no less than 100 training and publicity meetings every year, participating in project development and making plans in the early stage, and participating in installation and construction, operation and maintenance management in the later stage, and has also achieved the ultimate in brand and service.

After more than a year of development, there are more than a few thousand household photovoltaic installers, with hundreds of thousands of employees. Price wars and marketing wars are constantly fought. By the beginning of 2018, after several rounds of reshuffles, several large companies have emerged, such as Sunnyday, Bigo, Chint, Zhongmin Zhihui, Hanergy, JinkoSolar (Zhanyu), Trina, Yingli, Zhengxin and other new five large and four small distributed installers. The inverters that have boarded the train of these companies have also become bigger and stronger. When the work of R&D engineers and marketing managers is done to the extreme, it is difficult for later inverter companies to have development prospects without special means and breakthrough technologies, and the market has begun to solidify.

From here on, this article officially enters the topic

From the product perspective, it is the traditional practice to maximize performance and keep the price extremely low. When everyone is competing on price and marketing, we need to change our thinking and first refer to the development history of mobile phones in recent years.

Nokia mobile phones are undoubtedly the best in terms of basic calling functions. They have good signal reception and can be used in remote places. The battery is durable and can be used for 5-7 days on a single charge. They are resistant to falling and can be used to crack walnuts. They are durable and have a longer lifespan. They are easy to carry and are smaller and smaller. They are economical and practical, and their prices are getting cheaper and cheaper. As we all know, Nokia killed itself.

Nokia phone = ordinary phone + Hammer

Apple took a completely different path from Nokia. It did not emphasize the phone's drop resistance, battery durability, portability and price advantage. It turned the phone into a multifunctional integrated product. The phone is no longer just for making calls. It can also take high-resolution photos, listen to wonderful music, work, surf the Internet, play games, and pay cash anytime, anywhere. You can travel around the world with just one phone. Phones are getting bigger and bigger, prices are rising steadily, and they are updated quickly. People are no longer demanding about lifespan and battery life, so smartphones are getting bigger and bigger.

iPhone = regular phone + camera + computer + MP3

+Watch+Game Console+Wallet

Domestic photovoltaic inverters, from 2008 to 2018, except for performance adjustments and price reductions, are still following the path of Nokia mobile phones, with no fundamental changes. In fact, in the past few years, our periphery has undergone a lot of changes, component power has been increasing, power devices are also getting bigger, inverters can also make some fundamental changes like Apple mobile phones.

1. Household inverter with 300W+ modules

The inverter has a parameter, the string input current, which has not been paid attention to. This parameter is determined according to the components. Before 2010, the mainstream components were about 200W, the current was 7-8A, and the string input current of the inverter was 9-10A. By 2015, the mainstream components were 250W-280W, the current was 8-9A, and the string input current of the inverter was 10-11A. By 2018, the mainstream components were 300W-360W, the current was 9-10A, and the current of bifacial components could reach 11-12A. Some manufacturers of high-power string inverters are aware of this problem, and the string input current of the inverter has reached 12-13A, but many manufacturers of household inverters have not realized it and have not made any changes.

The increase in component power will not only increase the input string current, but will also fundamentally change the inverter power level and the promotion of household photovoltaic systems.

For single-phase inverters, the best number of components in series is 12. If a 300W component is connected, the power of one string is 3.6kW, and the power of two strings is 7.2kW. If it is a bifacial component, it can reach 4kW and 8kW. For three-phase inverters, the best number of components in series is 20-22. The power of one string is 6-7kW, two strings are 12-13kW, three strings are 18-19kW, four strings are 24-25kW, five strings are 30-31kW, and six strings are 36-37kW. Therefore, the power level of the entire inverter system must be changed accordingly.

The last chance for inverter manufacturers to redeem themselves: time is running out for the Chinese team

As the power of components increases, component prices decrease, PV subsidies are reduced, and labor costs increase, the original marketing model based on power is no longer suitable for the new form. If the investment amount or installed area is used for marketing, customers will be more impressed. Below is a comparison of the three methods in 2013 and 2018. In 2013, the mainstream component was polycrystalline 250W, with a price of about 4.5 yuan per watt, labor costs of 1 yuan per watt, and installation costs of about 8 yuan per watt. In 2018, the mainstream component was monocrystalline 300W, with a price of about 2.5 yuan per watt, labor costs of 1.5 yuan per watt, and installation costs of about 6.6 yuan per watt. According to the comparison,

The last chance for inverter manufacturers to redeem themselves: time is running out for the Chinese team

2. Multifunctional household inverter

In a photovoltaic system, the inverter not only converts the direct current of photovoltaic modules into alternating current, but also bears many responsibilities, such as power station safety supervision, power station data collection and transmission, etc. These are all closely related to photovoltaic power stations. Can the inverter be like an Apple mobile phone, which is not just for communication, but also develops some functions unrelated to photovoltaic power stations to add some added value to the inverter?

If you treat a household inverter as a household appliance, you can add many functions. For example, you can add an LED light to the inverter shell, which can be used as a lighting lamp when the inverter is not working at night. The position of the LED light is designed to be 12 points, forming a circle, and the inverter can also be used as a clock; using the data collection and transmission function of the inverter, and adding a camera, the inverter can become a network monitoring device; using the inverter's communication card, the inverter can also make calls.

The inverter of the future = ordinary inverter + lighting + wall clock

+Network Monitoring+Phone

A weather station requires a lot of investment and special personnel to maintain it, so there are not many weather stations at present, and the data collection accuracy is limited. Inverters can collect temperature and sunlight intensity, and the number of installed inverters is thousands or tens of thousands times that of weather stations. On such a large scale, if the inverter data is provided to the meteorological department, it can reduce costs on the one hand, and increase many data collection points on the other hand.

3. String Inverter

The mainstream of inverters are centralized inverters and string inverters. Both methods have their own advantages and disadvantages. Centralized inverters have high power per unit. The advantages are single-stage electronic conversion, fewer components, and high reliability. The disadvantage is that the DC lines are of different lengths. For a 500kW inverter, the component installation area exceeds 6,000 square meters. The farthest component may be more than 100 meters away, and the closest is only a few meters. The line impedance affects the MPPT function. The string inverter is just the opposite. At present, in the household market, due to the low power, string inverters are used. In medium and large power stations, both inverters can be selected. In terms of marketing, the manufacturers of these two inverters are also fighting each other, talking about their own advantages and the disadvantages of the other party.

In fact, these two types of inverters can be combined, that is, a unipolar string inverter. This type of inverter has only one level of DC-AC conversion, uses three-level and power modules, and a 50kW inverter has only three power switching devices. Like a centralized inverter, the installation area of ​​the peripheral components of a 50kW inverter is about 600 square meters, and the farthest distance is less than 25 meters, and the DC loss is very small. Currently, unipolar string inverters are also available on the market, but they are not used in large power stations. The reason is that the output voltage is 400Vac, and the input voltage range is narrowed to 580-850V, which limits the scope of application. In fact, this problem can be solved with a little workaround. The output voltage can be changed to 315V. Like a centralized inverter, the input voltage range can also reach 500-850V. Connect a step-up transformer at the back, and the application range is very wide.

String inverter = string appearance + centralized core

+Power module+315V

When R&D engineers have maximized the efficiency and price of inverters, and marketing managers have made the brand popular, the market has begun to solidify. If latecomers do not make major changes, they will have to work twice as hard to repeat the path of price and brand. At this time, product managers need to step up, re-plan products, guide the market, and make different, revolutionary products to break the situation.

At present, the domestic photovoltaic market is set to transform towards distributed power. To paraphrase the Chinese national football team, “time is running out for the Chinese team”. This may be the last chance for inverter manufacturers to redeem themselves.