The prediction five years ago came true today! String inverters are the mainstream of photovoltaic power plants

Based on the development trend of foreign photovoltaics, the author boldly predicts the development direction of the domestic photovoltaic market in the next five years.

Overall development direction: Photovoltaic power stations will gradually transition from centralized photovoltaic power generation to distributed photovoltaic power generation. In the future, central power rooftop photovoltaic power stations will be the main type, and low voltage will be the main grid-connected mode. Photovoltaic power stations will be mainly built in economically developed coastal areas; photovoltaic subsidies will decrease year by year, transitioning from the previous ex ante subsidy policy to a policy based on electricity subsidy; no new projects such as crystalline silicon modules will be approved.

Impact on the photovoltaic industry: Since it takes some time to formulate policies and some of the original Golden Sun projects have not been completed, centralized photovoltaic power stations will reach a historical peak in 2013, and will be halved year by year thereafter, and will exit the mainstream market by 2015. Inverter manufacturers should focus on developing 2KW-5KW single-phase inverters, 10KW-30KW small three-phase inverters, and 50-100KW medium-power inverters. The share of 500KW and 1MW inverters will gradually decrease. As photovoltaic subsidies shift from ex ante subsidies to per-kilowatt-hour subsidies, grid owners will pay more attention to power generation, and the efficiency of photovoltaic cells and the overall efficiency of inverters will become more important. Some companies that do not focus on technological development and reduce costs by sacrificing life and efficiency will exit the market. As national photovoltaic subsidies will decline year by year, companies will be prompted to adopt new technologies and processes to reduce costs.

Market share change forecast: In 2013, centralized power stations accounted for 80%, distributed power stations accounted for 18%, and micro inverters accounted for 2%. In 2014-2015, centralized power stations accounted for 40%, distributed power stations accounted for 40%, and micro inverters accounted for 20%; in 2016-2017, centralized power stations accounted for 20%, distributed power stations accounted for 50%, and micro inverters accounted for 30%.

Let me first explain the market situation in December 2012. At that time, China was still in the Golden Sun era. The power stations on the market were mainly Golden Sun projects and Western Power Station projects. 90% of the projects used centralized inverters. There were many domestic inverter manufacturers, with more than 300 in production and research and development. String inverters were basically exported, and the price of centralized inverters was one yuan per watt.

Although the domestic photovoltaic market has undergone tremendous changes in the past five years, this article still predicts most of them.

1. In April 2013, four months after the publication of this article, the Ministry of Finance issued a document to withdraw the Golden Sun policy. On August 26, 2013, the National Development and Reform Commission issued a new per-kilowatt-hour subsidy policy.

2. The market share of centralized inverters peaked at 80% in 2013, 40% in 2014-2015, and 20% in 2016-2017, which is basically in line with the facts.

3. The market share of string inverters has increased from 10% to more than 50%. It is predicted that there will be 50-100kW medium-power string inverters.

4. Inverter companies that reduce costs by sacrificing lifespan and efficiency will exit the market. The number of inverter companies has been reduced from more than 300 to more than 30 at present, and the companies engaging in price wars are no longer in existence.

5. Photovoltaic power stations will be mainly built in economically developed coastal areas; photovoltaic subsidies will decrease year by year.

6. The only thing that was not predicted accurately was the market share of micro inverters. Except for the United States, which can reach 30%, my country's market share is less than 5%. This may be related to the technological advancement of string inverters and the rapid decline in prices. The emergence of optimizers can also replace micro inverters.

The predictions made five years ago were basically correct. Many manufacturers of centralized inverters may not have believed them and did not shift their focus to making string inverters. As a result, they were gradually marginalized by the market until they exited the market.

So what will the photovoltaic market be like five years from now, that is, after 2022? Based on the development trend of photovoltaics abroad, the author makes a bold prediction:

1. Photovoltaic power will be available at parity, and the national unified subsidy policy will be cancelled, although it may still be available in some places. However, installing photovoltaic power is still more cost-effective than depositing money in the bank. Photovoltaic power generation will continue to exist for a long time.

2. Photovoltaic + energy storage, participating in grid peak regulation and power quality improvement, will receive subsidies. The investment returns of photovoltaic installation in industry and commerce are high.

3. The module price will be less than 2 yuan/W, 60-piece modules will reach 350W, and 72-piece modules will reach 450W. The system price will reach 4-5 yuan/W, and new thin-film modules may reach or exceed the power generation efficiency of crystalline silicon.

4. The overall trend of inverters is that the input current of a single string is getting larger and larger, and a 4-way input may have 30kW. The space for centralized inverters is further reduced, and can only be used in large-scale energy storage projects.

5. Small installers cannot survive, and photovoltaic systems may become bank financial products. There may be 3-5 super companies in the country. Components and inverters can be selected by users themselves, and installers provide several options.