15GW inverters were sold to Mars again. How bad is the competition environment in new energy?

Faced with an "authoritative list", some people questioned, some smiled, and some remained silent.

At the end of May, just before SENC, the “2016 Global Top 20 Photovoltaic Power Station Ranking Conference” once again revealed astonishing data: in 2015, the total shipments of the top 20 Chinese photovoltaic inverter companies reached 35GW.

Why is it so surprising? A simple calculation will reveal the clue: According to statistics from the National Energy Administration, my country's newly installed capacity in 2015 was only 15G. Even if we take into account the part shipped in 2014 but installed in 2015 and the part shipped in 2015 but installed in 2016, it means that there are still more than 15GW of shipments that need to be completed by exports.

But according to Chinese customs statistics, inverter exports did not exceed 5GW in 2015. So, have the remaining 15GW of inverters been sold to Mars?

Although we have no way of knowing the reliability of data collected by a certain organization, and have no intention of targeting the authority of a certain ranking, China Energy Network reporters have obtained actual bidding results and detailed data in 2015 from suppliers obtained by industry insiders, and compared the data released by mainstream inverter manufacturers one by one. It can be concluded that there is indeed widespread data falsification in the photovoltaic inverter industry.

Why do they commit fraud? The most direct purpose is to gain immediate benefits and overwhelm other competitors. Although all parties have long called for a fair and honest business environment, for those companies that like to commit fraud, it can be said that "you can never wake up a person who pretends to be asleep."

When a dirty behavior gradually becomes an "open secret" in an industry, the impact of the "evil" of fraud is definitely not just a "face issue."

Is it a myth, a fairy tale, or a ghost story?

For entrepreneurs, innovation is the soul, risk-taking is nature, and integrity is the cornerstone. A company or even an industry that exaggerates its publicity and uses it as a marketing tactic will inevitably lead to a distorted business environment, with bad money driving out good money and causing irrational competition.

Based on the above actual bidding data statistics, the author found that the actual shipment volume of inverter manufacturers in China in 2015 was actually 20.7GW.

Among them, the annual report released by Sungrow Power Supply on April 27 showed that its global shipments of photovoltaic inverters in 2015 were 8.9GW, of which 7.7322GW were shipped domestically. In addition, Sineng Electric's actual domestic shipments were 2.5GW, TBEA's were 2.5GW, KSHDA's were 1GW, Xiamen Kehua's were 1GW, and Shanghai Chint's were 1GW. The total shipments of the above six companies alone reached 15GW, and the actual shipments of the remaining companies are not difficult to calculate.

However, according to the data released by inverter manufacturers in 2016, the shipment volume of domestic inverter manufacturers exceeded 26.2GW in 2015. The data of the top 20 photovoltaic power stations released at the "2016 Global Top 20 PV Power Station Ranking Conference" even reached 35GW. The huge "error" between such data and the actual bidding data is really ridiculous.

Which companies’ public data are watered down?

Why are so many products being "sold" to Mars? Everyone on Earth knows that bragging is tax-free!

Moreover, some companies seem to believe that it is no big deal to fiddle with the data, as they know that they will basically not be punished. They care more about the immediate benefits and "face" that "deceptive" publicity can bring to the company. They exaggerate sales by falsifying figures, intending to overwhelm their competitors in momentum first, and try to use this to accelerate the establishment of their own brand image in front of the industry and customers, so as to seize more market share in the future.

Data originally appeared as a reflection of the company's achievements over a period of time or a reference for industry development. It is considered to be a reflection of the company's strength, tax proof and future growth, and is cited by investors, peers, banks and governments in their respective plans.

Conversely, erroneous data can cause great harm to the industry, especially in an industry like new energy that is still waiting for government policy guidance. It not only affects the overall government planning, but also affects market prices and the reasonable profits of enterprises.

At first glance, "data falsification" may not seem like a serious matter, but it is not. When the real data that has been worked hard for a whole year is easily "surpassed" by other companies through falsification, where is the fairness of the market?

As the saying goes, “If a man does not have integrity, he is not worthy of trust.” For entrepreneurs, innovation is the soul, adventure is nature, and integrity is the cornerstone. An enterprise or even an industry that exaggerates and promotes itself as a marketing ethos will inevitably lead to a distorted business environment, with bad money driving out good money and causing irrational competition.

It can be inferred that in the inverter industry and even the new energy industry, those beautiful data and wealth creation stories that have been rampant in China overnight may sometimes be myths, sometimes fairy tales, but they may also be lies.

If we analyze further, for a strategic emerging industry that is responsible for adjusting the global energy structure, helping to solve global climate change, and is related to the well-being of future generations, the harm caused by data falsification is far more than this.

The winners are the kings and the losers are the bandits. Who will investigate the morality of fraud?

These companies have great contempt for the public's intelligence, and they exaggerate and do whatever they want in marketing and promotion; they are indifferent to the rules of the market game, treat their competitors ruthlessly, and finally regard winning by trickery as the greatest glory. - "The Great Failure"

The lessons are still there and the memory is still fresh.

In the past 10 years, China's new energy industry has gone through a cycle from myth to nightmare to spring. After experiencing ups and downs, some industry leaders such as Shi Zhengrong, Peng Xiaofeng, and Miao Liansheng left, while others stayed to continue to trace their own business trajectories in the industry.

As time goes by, when we gradually clarify how the failures and anxieties of this industry occurred and spread, we can clearly find that greed for quick success and reckless advance, promotion of concepts, mutual infighting, data falsification, etc. are all contributing factors.

Shocking cases abound, and in various fields such as polysilicon, battery components and thin-film batteries, exaggerated publicity has been used to highlight the strength of enterprises. Then came the double anti-dumping, default, bankruptcy and high debt, which in turn led to the stay away and fear of banks and investors.

The result is well known. For a long time, the entire industry fell into the abyss and almost all companies had a hard time.

What is surprising is that after an industry has learned countless lessons and established a large number of bloody milestones, some companies are still advocating irrational operating models and are even more unable to curb the urge to exaggerate their performance. As a result, new waves of disorder, blind action, chaos and vicious competition have arisen.

This reminds me of a survey conducted by the famous financial writer Wu Xiaobo, who tried to capture the "genes" of the failure of some companies/industries in the 30 years of reform and opening up. After studying a large amount of original materials, he came to the following "common points": "These companies have extreme contempt for the IQ of the people, and they exaggerate and do whatever they want in marketing and promotion; they are indifferent to the rules of the market game and are ruthless to their competitors." In the end, they consider it the greatest glory to win by using cunning tactics.

Does this description sound both strange and familiar to today's new energy industry? Whether it is wind power, photovoltaics, or the inverter industry, there are still many companies that lack compliance with the rules of the business game and respect for competitors; especially when it comes to defending market fairness, their sense of responsibility seems to be extremely weak.

Similar companies don't seem to like to "play by the rules" either - playing by the rules is something that only "ordinary people" do - what's the big deal about inflating data? What's the big deal about exaggerating publicity? What's the big deal about paying for rankings? What's the big deal about damaging the interests of other companies?

As the saying goes, "The winner is the king and the loser is the bandit." They only care about utilitarianism. As long as they are the winners, who will care about the morality of the process?

Judging from the limited experience, the author believes that today's new energy industry is still facing various problems, and the above-mentioned corporate philosophy will inevitably become an extremely fatal chronic disease that hinders China's new energy from building a healthy industrial ecology for a long time.

Countless industry facts have proved that the truth may be "late", but it is often not absent.

Those companies that are keen on falsifying data may not have thought that who would be willing to play with them after a long time if they always play against the rules?

The excess profits and status obtained by a person who always plays by his own rules may be based on the premise of harming the interests of the majority of people who play by the rules. This is a strategy of disrupting the market order to make profits in chaos.