Voice service is the "killer" of 3G

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Voice service is the "killer" of 3G [Copy link]

China's telecommunications industry is about to finish a hurried year of reform and competition. Looking forward to the market next year, there are still many variables and uncertain factors. On the 11th, Professor Lv Tingjie, Dean of the School of Economics and Management of Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, gave a special report in Guangzhou, talking about "Analysis and Thinking on China's Telecommunications Industry".

　　As a member of the Communications Technology Committee of the Ministry of Information Industry, Lv Tingjie's views should be said to be representative and influential.

　　Tietong is the biggest variable

　　"If the telecommunications industry is completely open, it will definitely fail." Lv Tingjie said that the 1996 US Telecommunications Act was considered a failure because anyone could do telecommunications without applying for a license. Completely liberalizing the telecommunications market will inevitably lead to "warlord separatism" in various places and a pile of interconnection problems. "Introducing competition and moderate supervision must coexist, and the difficulty lies in grasping the scale."

　　Lv Tingjie said that he agreed with the saying that there would be no competition without duplicate construction, but duplicate construction should also be moderate.

　　At present, China's telecommunications operators are all state-owned or state-controlled enterprises. "The problem of diversified investment entities has not been solved, the structure has not been adjusted well, and blind competition will still cost state-owned assets."

　　He boldly imagined: "If we want to introduce market competition, operate all businesses, and realize the appreciation and preservation of state-owned assets, it is better to return to the era of duopoly like the Thatcher era in the UK, such as merging China Mobile and China Netcom, merging China Telecom and China Unicom." However, he also admitted that in actual operation, such an idea is unlikely to be implemented.

　　Based on reality, Lu Tingjie believes that the biggest variable in the domestic communication industry competition next year will come from China Railway Communications. After being separated from the Ministry of Railways and directly assigned to the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission in January next year, China Railway Communications may be a major factor in causing the reshuffle of the old competition pattern. He said that among the six major operators, China Railway Communications' network assets in the south are slightly more than China Netcom, and in the north they are slightly more than China Telecom, so the possibility of reorganizing these network assets among the operators cannot be ruled out. "China Railway Communications may be reorganized under the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission next year, just like the reorganization of Netcom."

　　When talking about the "limited development"

　　of Xiaolingtong, the most popular Xiaolingtong this year, Lu Tingjie also praised it as a classic case that the global telecommunications industry has paid much attention to. "The Chinese economy is ultimately a policy economy and a relationship economy. The success of Xiaolingtong lies in making full use of this characteristic and current situation of the Chinese economy."

　　"Xiaolingtong cannot transition to 3G. It will definitely be a technology that will be eliminated, but it does have a market in China now."

　　He believes that Xiaolingtong has brought at least three benefits to China Telecom and China Netcom: first, it has brought back local traffic and regained part of the traffic diverted by mobile communications; second, it has put strong pressure on the government, which is conducive to winning mobile communications licenses; third, it has cultivated and accumulated a part of mobile communications customers for itself in preparation for the future.

　　Lu Tingjie said: "If the 3G license is not issued, Xiaolingtong will continue to develop next year, but the operator will control its scale and it will not be too big."

　　Voice business is the "killer" of 3G

　　. The growth of mobile communications is the biggest highlight of various telecommunications services this year. As of October this year, the call duration of mobile communications has accounted for 47.3% of the total call duration, nearly half. Lu Tingjie believes that there is still a lot of room for growth in China's mobile communications users, and it will not be saturated until it reaches about 400 million households. This time will be around the 2008 Beijing Olympic Games, that is, within five years, the number of mobile communication users will double compared to now.

　　"It is the existence of this huge market that makes multinational companies eager to open the door to China's 3G market." Lu Tingjie judged that 3G will become the focus next year. However, he believes that there has always been a misunderstanding in the industry about 3G - over-emphasizing its application in data services.

　　According to Lu Tingjie's analysis, in the next 5 to 10 years, as the voice business of fixed-line phones further shrinks, the voice business of mobile communications will continue to grow, and 70%-80% of its revenue will come from voice services. Therefore, the biggest selling point of 3G is not multimedia data services, but voice services are its "killer application". He said that the construction cost of 3G networks used for voice services is only 1/4 of that of traditional networks.

　　"Once new operators obtain 3G licenses, they will definitely take the lead in developing voice services and compete for the mobile communication market." Lu Tingjie said that some time ago, Wei Leping, chief engineer of China Telecom, led a delegation to visit Europe and directly asked European operators a question: How much can a 3G mobile phone with voice functions but not supporting data services be sold at the lowest price?

　　TD-SCDMA should be bundled for issuance.

　　Regarding China's 3G standard TD-SCDMA, Lv Tingjie holds a compromising attitude. He suggests that TD-SCDMA and WCDMA standards should be bundled compulsorily when issuing 3G licenses.

　　He said that TD-SCDMA is China's own 3G standard, and the country should provide certain support to prevent 3G technology from being completely controlled by foreign companies.

　　However, Lv Tingjie believes that the idea of using the TD-SCDMA standard to unify China's 3G market is too nationalistic. "This closed and exclusive mentality is not conducive to the introduction of market competition, nor is it conducive to Chinese communication companies participating in international competition."

　　In fact, Japan has a precedent on this issue. In the 2G era, Japan only adopted its own country's standards, thinking that this would protect the interests of its own companies. Little did they know that this would also isolate Japanese communication companies from the world trend and make it difficult to get overseas orders. Therefore, facing the 3G era, Japan pays great attention to the openness of standards and first applies the foreign WCDMA standard.

　　Lv Tingjie introduced that about half of TD-SCDMA's patents have been registered by foreign manufacturers, and the mandatory adoption of this standard will not enable China's equipment manufacturers to monopolize this market. After weighing the pros and cons, bundling the TD-SCDMA standard when issuing licenses is a more appropriate approach.