Muddy tax control

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How big is the tax control machine market in China? At the tax control machine industry chain forum held in Beijing recently, Zheng Zhiguang, secretary general of the Tax Control Information Equipment Branch of the China Information Industry Chamber of Commerce, revealed that in the next five years, the market size of domestic tax control cash registers will be around 10 billion yuan. This is far from the 200 billion yuan market share previously rumored by the industry and research institutions. A 20-fold difference sounds incredible, but it is true.
Limited market space
With the rapid development of China's informatization construction and the "Golden Tax Project", the tax control cash register industry has also become a hot commodity, attracting widespread attention from the industry. Optimistic statistics show that there are nearly 30 million companies in China that need to use tax control cash registers, so the national demand for tax control cash registers is about 30 million to 40 million units. Based on the unit price of a tax control cash register of 2,000 yuan, the market for tax control cash registers will reach more than 60 billion yuan, and the market demand for tax control equipment has shown explosive growth. If we add the related software, hardware, equipment, services, training, etc., the tax control machine field will form a market of at least 200 billion yuan in 3 to 5 years.
The huge profits brought by the tax control machine industry have been hyped up by the media and some institutions, and of course attracted many companies engaged in information product manufacturing to join in. Some companies that have never been involved in the cash register industry are also eager to try and prepare to share this tempting cheese, including IT and home appliance manufacturers such as Lenovo and Haier.
At the tax control machine industry chain forum on August 25, representatives from the government, associations, chip, solution providers and whole machine companies exchanged opinions extensively. Everyone believes that the market may not be as big as originally imagined, and the number of companies entering may be much more than imagined. It seems that the embarrassing situation of overheating before the market has started has already formed. For most companies, the arrow is on the string and has to be fired. A fierce battle will be inevitable. How big is



the hype about
China's tax control machine market? This is a question that has been hyped many times by the media and is the most concerned issue in the industry. Zheng Zhiguang, Secretary General of the Tax Control Information Equipment Branch of the China Information Industry Chamber of Commerce, made a special trip to the State Administration of Taxation before the meeting to be cautious. He said: "After verification, there are about 15 million taxpayers on the list, of which about 60% are individual taxpayers, such as husband-and-wife shops, etc. Their business scale is too small and they do not need tax control machines. The remaining 5 million to 7 million households, excluding some large shopping malls, are already using POS machines and other equipment, and will not use tax control machines immediately. In this way, the total scale of the tax control machine market is about 3.5 million to 5 million households, and this is the cumulative figure in the next 3 to 5 years, not the annual market size. Calculated at 5 million units, each unit costs 2,000 yuan, which is a market of 10 billion yuan."
Compared with Zheng Zhiguang's prediction, Zhang Tao, general manager of the Computer and Software Division of CCID Consulting Co., Ltd., is slightly more optimistic. He believes that there is a market capacity of 10 million units, and predicts that the compound growth rate of China's tax control machine market from 2005 to 2009 will be 154.2%, that is, the market size in 2009 will be 21.34 billion yuan.
　　Obviously, the market size of 100 billion yuan is a bit overestimated. So how many tax control machine manufacturers are there now? According to the reporter, in recent years, more than 400 companies have been scrambling to develop tax control machines. In April this year, the Ministry of Information Industry issued production qualification certificates to 88 companies in the first batch. It is said that seven or eight more companies have been approved later, so that a total of nearly 100 companies have obtained production qualifications. Among them, 77 companies have obtained production licenses so far, including many listed companies such as Aerospace Information and Jinglun Electronics.
　　Therefore, experts warn that companies that have obtained tax control machine production qualifications and are preparing to apply for tax control machine production qualifications should have a clear understanding of this and not be overly optimistic. After the tax control machine market is officially opened, they should treat it rationally. The government should also provide corresponding guidance and strive to establish a healthy and orderly market competition environment.



Reshuffle is inevitable
According to industry experts, the number of companies that will eventually gain market access will exceed 100.
　　Lou Qinjian, vice minister of the Ministry of Information Industry, said that the qualification review of financial tax control cash registers, namely, integrated tax machines, will be launched in the near future, which will further expand the ranks of tax control cash register companies.
　　According to the model bidding template formulated by the State Administration of Taxation, each province, autonomous region and municipality will independently conduct bidding and selection for tax control machine companies, and the number of companies in the same province, autonomous region and municipality shall not be less than 5 and not more than 10. Based on this calculation, the market needs at most 155 to 310 tax control cash register manufacturers nationwide, assuming no crossover. On average, each company can get a market share of nearly 100 million yuan, so it is not surprising that so many companies are flocking in.
Zheng Zhiguang frankly admitted that due to the excessive hype of the tax control machine market by some media and the overly optimistic estimation of the market size of tax control machines by some companies, there are too many companies that have obtained the qualification to produce tax control machines relative to the market size of tax control machines.
He asserted that in the process of the development of the tax control machine market, there will inevitably be a reshuffle of enterprises in the industry. The first reshuffle will occur during the bidding stage, when some strong enterprises will be shortlisted in multiple provinces, while some relatively weak enterprises will be eliminated. The second reshuffle will occur after the enterprises officially enter the market. Due to the influence of factors such as the market promotion ability of the enterprises and the possible local protection, the sales volume of enterprises will be seriously unbalanced, which will cause some enterprises to withdraw from the market.



Who will take the lead?
As the highlight of the "Golden Tax Project", the national tax control cash register legislation has been basically completed. According to the regulations, taxpayers engaged in commercial retail, catering, entertainment, service and transportation industries must purchase tax control cash registers. Among them, general taxpayers and small-scale taxpayers in commercial retail must use tax control cash registers to issue ordinary invoices. The relevant regulations also require that tax control cash registers be basically popularized in developed areas within 3 years and in underdeveloped areas within 5 years.
Chen Meifeng, an analyst at Haitong Securities Research Institute, said that based on the current progress, it is expected that most manufacturers will start to form sales in the second half of 2005. Although the market capacity is large, compared with the anti-counterfeiting tax control system for general taxpayers, the technical content of tax control cash registers is slightly lower, and the market competition is relatively high. For enterprises to gain advantages in the foreseeable fiercely competitive market, it is still a competition of strength. In addition to the necessary production scale and R&D strength, enterprises should also have strong after-sales service capabilities and a broad sales network.
How to plan ahead and avoid risks will be the key to the success or failure of the application and promotion of tax control cash registers in China. Wang Qinping, deputy director of the General Administration of Quality Supervision, Inspection and Quarantine, said that improving the management of tax control cash register product standards, strictly managing production licenses, and urging enterprises to improve service quality and level will be the work that the quality inspection system should focus on in the near future.
Zheng Zhiguang predicts that with the launch of the tax control cash register market, the number of enterprises will be reduced by half in two years, and after the market reaches a relatively stable competitive situation, this number will be further reduced to about 30. Most of the surviving enterprises should be "local forces" active in the local market, and there should be no more than 10 enterprises that occupy a large share nationwide.
Representatives from manufacturing companies such as Suzhou Guoxin, Orbit, and Hisense also believe that in the end, only 3 to 5 companies may remain.

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