Development trend of China's magnetic materials market

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Development trend of China's magnetic materials market [Copy link]

Development trend of China's magnetic materials market DevelopmenttrendsofmagneticmaterialsmarketinChina

1 Development of China's home appliance application market In today's information society, magnetic materials have not only penetrated into daily home appliances, but are also widely used in computers, communications, automobiles and aerospace. With the continuous improvement of the living standards of the Chinese people, the popularization of home appliances, communication mobile phones and telephones, and the entry of computers and cars into households, the per capita magnetic consumption has increased significantly. Now, the per capita consumption of magnetic materials can be used to measure the living standards of a country's people. China's per capita consumption of magnetic materials has increased from 1.6 yuan/person in 1990 to 7.8 yuan/person in 2002, about 5 times, but it is still a long way from the 4.5 US dollars/person in Western developed countries, indicating that China's magnetic materials development still has good market prospects. Home appliances are the most competitive industry after China joined the WTO. From the statistical data, China's home appliance production has caught up with some developed countries and has become the world's major home appliance production base. According to authoritative organizations, China will become the world's largest home appliance manufacturing center in the next 10 years and the world's third largest home appliance manufacturing country after the United States and Japan. Table 1 shows the changes in the output of home appliances before and after China joined the WTO. Since the mid-1990s, China's household appliance industry has received investments from all the world's well-known multinational companies such as the United States, Japan, South Korea and Europe. Not only has the production capacity and output of refrigerators, washing machines, air conditioners, and refrigeration compressors ranked among the top in the world, but the export volume of small household appliances such as electric fans, vacuum cleaners, electric irons, kitchen appliances, etc. has also exceeded 10 million units (including processing trade). Figures from the statistical department show that in recent years, China's household appliance exports have maintained a relatively fast growth rate, and the growth rate is far higher than the average level of national foreign trade exports. In recent years, the growth rate of China's household appliance exports has been above 12%. In 2002, the momentum of household appliance exports remained strong, and the growth rate exceeded that of last year. The performance and quality of China's household appliance products are constantly improving, and the competitiveness is constantly increasing. It is an indisputable fact that China has become a global household appliance production base; at the same time, it has provided a large market for the sale of magnetic materials in the world. After joining the WTO, the momentum of China's household appliance exports has further increased, driving China's household appliance industry to become a global production base. According to customs statistics, on the basis of the stable growth of home appliance exports in previous years, China's home appliance import and export trade continued to achieve rapid growth in 2002, with the total foreign trade reaching tens of billions of US dollars. From the perspective of exports, it is much higher than the national export growth rate (6.8%) and the export growth rate of electromechanical products (12.8%). China exported home appliances to 192 countries and regions, and the export market has further expanded. 2 Development of industrial products The automobile, communication and computer industries are emerging industries in China and also the fastest growing industries in China. The future pattern of the world automobile industry will change. In the next five years, the increase in the global automobile market will come from Asia, and China's huge consumer demand potential is the top priority in Asia. The world's automobile giants have basically entered the Chinese market and have made the development of the Chinese market the focus of their global strategy. After the WTO, with the price reduction and entry of automobiles into households, China's automobile production reached 4 million in 2002, ranking fourth in the world. By 2010, China's annual automobile production will reach 10 million. At present, the growth rate of the information industry exceeds 20%, and the scale and capacity of fixed and mobile phone networks have jumped to the first place in the world. After the WTO, foreign mobile phone manufacturing industry further transferred to China, and China became the world's largest mobile phone manufacturing base and sales market. At present, there are 36 mobile phone production enterprises approved by the state (including 22 foreign-invested enterprises), and by the end of 2002, the country had formed a production capacity of 200 million units. From 1998 to 2002, a total of 270 million mobile phones were produced, and product sales revenue reached 410 billion yuan. In particular, exports grew rapidly. The export volume in 2002 was 225 times that of 1998, and the export value of mobile phones reached 5.3 billion US dollars, ranking among the top export products, and has become an important force to promote the export of China's electronic products. Although the world IT industry has been in recession since 2001, China's computer market has made new progress after the WTO. Driven by the Internet, e-commerce and the "three gold" project, it has entered a new period of development. In 2002, China produced about 13 million desktop computers, 800,000 laptops, more than 45 million color monitors, 64 million floppy disk drives, 50 million CD drives, and 30 million printers. China has become the world's most important production base in some computer product fields. 3 Development Trends of China's Magnetic Materials Market As the whole machine develops towards miniaturization and thinness, although some applications (such as piezoelectric transformers, surface acoustic wave filters, and ultrasonic motors) now use other materials, due to the coexistence of electricity and magnetism, the principle of inseparability, especially in today's electrical and information age, magnetic materials will continue to develop in the next decade. It is estimated that by 2015, the Chinese market will need 500,000 tons of permanent ferrite, 200,000 tons of soft ferrite, and 50,000 tons of neodymium iron boron magnets; accounting for about 60%, 30% and 50% of the global market respectively. Of course, the application fields of magnetic materials will not change. We will focus on the future development direction of magnetic materials below. 3.1 Digital home appliances. With the development of information technology, digitalization will be the direction of the home appliance revolution in the future. In the next ten years, digital cameras, digital video cameras, digital TVs, MDs, MP3s and other digital formats will replace or partially replace the current analog formats. In order to adapt to the development of high-definition and flat-panel display methods, the largest home appliance industry - color TVs will change. The China Television Industry Association predicts that by 2010, China's total color TV production will reach 100 million units, accounting for 62.5% of the world's total production. From 2003, 100 million analog TVs in the world will need to be replaced with digital TVs. At $500 per unit, the market capacity will be as high as $50 billion, and will reach $500 billion by 2010. Table 5 shows the forecast of the world's rear-projection color TV, plasma, and LCD color TV market sales in the next few years by the "World Color TV Market Quarterly Monitoring Report" of Stanford Corporation in the United States. In the next few years, new display large-screen TVs will grow by more than 30% each year. By 2010, they will account for 65% of the TV product structure, and CRT TVs will account for 35%. The annual report of the US display industry published by DisplaySearch Consulting Company recently pointed out that although the output of liquid crystal (LCD) computer monitors in 2002 was still lower than that of conventional CRT monitors, its total sales reached 17.2 billion US dollars, surpassing the 14.3 billion US dollars of CRT. It is estimated that the output of the two products should be 65.9 million and 42.8 million units respectively by the end of 2004, and the gap between the two will continue to widen. By 2006, it is estimated that the output of CRT monitors and LCD monitors will be more than 1:5. This indicates that the use of flyback transformers and CRT deflection cores will decrease, and the backlight power supply cores for LCD displays and the deflection cores for plasma and rear-projection TVs will increase. These cores are still blank in China. 3.2 Information products. The popularization of computers has driven the development of related supporting components, especially hard disk drives (HDDs), and the global output will reach 200 million units. Now 1-inch hard disk drives have come out and continue to develop towards miniaturization, and are used in digital cameras, cameras, handheld computers, etc. to store more information. In addition, in terms of digital video recording, if hard disks are used to replace current video recorders and sold as supporting televisions, the market is considerable. It is estimated that by 2010, the global production of hard disks will exceed 500 million units. DVD, DVD-ROM and CD burners are indispensable for computers and home theaters. By 2010, the global production will exceed 1 billion. This is a potential and large market for NdFeB (sintered, bonded) magnets that cannot be ignored, but the above-mentioned supporting magnets are basically monopolized by foreign countries, and the domestic magnets are very small. On the one hand, it is affected by magnet patents, and on the other hand, China's NdFeB magnets are inferior to Japanese and German products in terms of product quality. 3.3 EMI components After my country joined the WTO and connected with the world economy, all electronic/power products must meet the electromagnetic compatibility EMI standards before entering the market. For this reason, some appropriate EMI countermeasure components that resist electromagnetic interference must be used in product design. Electromagnetic compatibility is a systematic project, and preventing electromagnetic interference is its core content. Due to the strong market demand, major electronic component companies in the world have invested a lot of manpower and material resources to develop this field, and the progress is extremely rapid. Its main development direction is high frequency (due to the development of electronic products towards high frequency), miniaturization, multi-functional combination and integration. Since my country started to strictly implement electromagnetic compatibility regulations relatively late, the research and production of EMI countermeasure components are also weak. Driven by the wave of integration with the international economy, my country's EMI countermeasure component industry will develop rapidly. Today's EMI components are developing towards chip-type, miniaturization, high frequency and integration. Therefore, the traditional winding core devices in the past have been replaced by laminated core devices, and are made of ferrite slurry and conductor slurry alternately laminated thick film printing and sintering, and the material is thin-filmed to achieve surface mounting. Further development in the future is to use thin-film technology to miniaturize the device. China's soft magnetic components are facing this issue, and there are a lot of technical difficulties waiting to be overcome. 3.4 Communication components Nowadays, mobile phones are updated very quickly, and magnetic components also need to be updated. For example, the current tubular vibrating magnetic core will be replaced by a button type, the antenna magnetic core will use a thin film, and the mobile phone and computer interface will use Bluetooth technology. In addition, the passive components used in optical communication are basically imported, and the development areas of magnetic materials are optical communication magnetic passive switches, circulators, isolators, couplers and Bluetooth interface technology. 3.5 Automobile industry Now the automobile has become the fifth pillar industry for the development of China's national economy. Its development has driven a series of industries, and magnetic materials are also one of the industries that benefit the most. Foreign experts predict that by 2003, China's automobile production will exceed France, ranking fourth in the world after the United States, Japan and Germany. By 2010, China's automobile production will reach 10 million vehicles. Now the average number of motors used in each car is 30, and the number of car audio speakers is 5; but some key motors (such as starter motors, etc.) still need to be imported, and the car audio market is occupied by foreign manufacturers. In the future, automobiles will develop towards energy conservation, and domestic and foreign automobile industry companies are optimistic about the electric vehicle market, which will bring unlimited prospects to NdFeB magnets. Table 6 gives the performance-price ratio of various permanent magnets and analyzes the possibility of their application in automobiles. As can be seen from the above table, ferrite has the lowest price/performance ratio. Sintered NdFeB magnets are 2.8-3.1 times of it, but are the closest to ferrite among other types of magnets. For ferrite, sintered NdFeB is the most challenging price/performance ratio. The price difference between equal power or torque motors made of ferrite and NdFeB is only 1.5-2.0 times. However, the latter is small in size, light in weight, small inertia, and saves copper wire, laminated magnetic steel, etc. Therefore, once the price of sintered NdFeB magnets is lower than the following values, it will replace ferrite. The price is less than US$70/kg when working at 100℃; the price is less than US$80/kg when working at 150℃; the price is less than US$100/kg when working at 200℃. Bonded NdFeB magnets (MQ1) can replace ferrite magnets if their price is less than the following values: less than $25/kg when working at 100°C; less than $30/kg when working at 150°C. Lower prices are available in China, where ferrite tiles cost less than $2/kg; Chinese patent license holders have good quality magnets at less than $60/kg, so the performance-price ratio remains unchanged. In the next five years: Due to the improvement and low price of ferrite magnets, NdFeB magnets are mainly used in new fields and cannot completely replace ferrite. Our conclusion is that the global market strategy after WTO will promote the application of Chinese magnets in the automotive industry, and China will soon become the largest manufacturer of ferrite and NdFeB magnets in the global market; only high-performance magnets, such as FB9 ferrites and NdFeB magnets that can work at 200°C, are still manufactured in the West, and these materials are the key materials for future cars using 42V power supplies and electric brushless DC motors.

Article author: Chen Guohua

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