Europe's severely divided auto market and Tesla's Q1 delivery review

From the European auto market sales data released one after another, we can see the difference in auto sales between southern Europe and some northern countries, and the difference between Germany, which is promoting new energy vehicle sales, and other countries. In this matter, I tend to think that the group represented by Germany that is determined to transform to new energy vehicles is very determined and can push forward the previously designated new energy vehicle plan. However, Italy, Spain and France, which are more affected, are in a difficult situation. The division here is very serious.

01 Part 1 Sales in several major European countries

As shown in the figure below, Italy's year-on-year growth rate was -85.00%, France's year-on-year growth rate was -72.00%, and Spain's was -69.00%. These three countries have relatively serious epidemics. The data for the UK has not yet come out, but it is estimated that the data for these three countries are similar; Germany's year-on-year growth rate was -37.70%, Norway's was -32.30%, and the Netherlands' was -23.40%. Sweden's year-on-year growth rate was the lowest at -8.00%. There are still differences between different regions in Europe, and we can see the impact of the epidemic on the countries from them. 

Figure 1 A relatively complete picture of the situation in various countries in March 

The situation of new energy vehicles is really unusual. With a low base, new energy vehicles have maintained strong growth in major European countries. As shown in the figure below, Germany, Norway and Sweden have all increased month-on-month. Norway has decreased year-on-year due to a high base last year, but the number is still very high. In France, Spain and Italy, the number of electric vehicles is not particularly bad compared with the overall decline of nearly 70%-80%. 

Figure 2 Sales of new energy vehicles in major countries 

I think there are several game issues here that require our in-depth examination: 

1) At present, in the short term, the purchase and registration of new energy vehicles are all pre-ordered. In particular, many new energy vehicles are purchased by the B-end. The use of company fleet vehicles is bound to have a certain continuity, so the overall figures are very good. 

2) From the perspective of fuel vehicles, personal car consumption in Europe has been impacted to a certain extent. This is not yet apparent from the purchase of new energy vehicles, but it does not mean that it will not be reflected in April and May. 

3) The most important one is that, at present, new energy vehicles are breaking even to a certain extent under the subsidies of various countries, while the profitable sales of fuel vehicles have exerted tremendous pressure on various companies. The original part of the income that could guarantee profitability is gone. Even if the carbon emissions can meet the standards, the subsequent overall operating pressure will gradually manifest itself. 

02 Tesla’s Q1 data breakdown

The first quarter delivery of 88,000 units is a bit too good. Let's review the current data: Germany and France have the most, 3,315 units and 2,797 units, and most of the remaining countries are around 1,500 units. The entire Europe is estimated to be around 15,000-16,000 units. According to China's delivery data of 15,000 units, there are still about 58,000 units. 

Figure 3 Tesla’s Q1 sales in major European countries 

Tesla also delivered 3,939 units in South Korea in the first quarter. The main reason why we cannot make an accurate estimate is that Tesla still has many complex delivery processes to various places. Australia also delivered 1,100 units in the first quarter, so there are 5,000 units. 

Figure 4 Tesla deliveries in South Korea 

The most likely scenario is that the US market absorbed 50,000 units. We really need to take a closer look at how this sales volume came about. At present, it is still difficult to estimate Tesla's quarterly deliveries based on major markets. Sales are slowly increasing in many places. This acceptance is silent, and of course the epidemic has also changed many things. We can re-examine Tesla's sales target of 500,000 this year.

Summary: I talked with a friend a few days ago. Our valley of despair was probably in mid-May. If the expected sales recovery at that time did not meet expectations, this year would be really difficult. But spring is really here. I went outing in Qingpu these few days and really felt that the difficult years are almost over.