LiDAR is accelerating its expansion, and the number of NOA vehicles in China will exceed 1.8 million in 2024

On March 29, 2024, the "China Automotive New Supply Chain Configuration Data Product Launch Conference" hosted by Gasgoo Automotive Research Institute was successfully held in Shanghai.

Gasgoo Automotive Research Institute is committed to becoming a leading think tank in the automotive industry. By using automotive supply chain configuration information and vehicle production and sales information as core underlying data resources, it deeply focuses on the in-depth insights of the entire smart car industry chain, outputs comprehensive automotive industry research results and complete industry data resources, and thus supports industry users in making business decisions.

At the China Automotive New Supply Chain Configuration Data Product Launch Conference, we launched and released to the market three original database products, namely the passenger car intelligent driving configuration database, the passenger car intelligent cockpit configuration database, and the passenger car electrification configuration database, as well as supporting market analysis monthly reports.

At present, autonomous driving technology is developing at an astonishing speed, from basic vehicle control assistance to advanced autonomous driving assistance, from simple functions to highly integrated, intelligent and complex systems, and its functions are constantly being upgraded and improved. The penetration rate of L2 driver assistance is increasing rapidly, the popularity of urban NOA and the introduction of relevant policies for high-level autonomous driving have driven China's local intelligent driving solutions and suppliers into a new round of rapid development.

The penetration rate of L2 assisted driving is increasing rapidly, and the implementation of urban NOA is accelerating

The importance of ADAS to automobile safety continues to increase. Based on the 2021 version, the 2024 version of C-NCAP has optimized and upgraded existing scenarios, modified and updated test parameters, and added multiple active safety test items.

With the continuous improvement of the performance of functions such as lane keeping assist and full-speed adaptive cruise control, as well as the cost reduction brought about by large-scale production and technological improvements, more car models are able to provide driving assistance functions at lower prices, especially in the price range of 100,000 to 200,000 yuan, which has become the main market for L2 assisted driving.

According to the Gasgoo Automotive Research Institute's intelligent driving configuration database, the number of L2-level (including L2+ and L2++) standard-equipped new energy passenger vehicles in the market will reach 3.7 million in 2023, with a market penetration rate of over 51%. Among them, the penetration rate of models in the 200,000-500,000 yuan price range has exceeded 85%.

As the penetration rate of low-level driving assistance functions increases, high-level intelligent driving systems are reaching a turning point in their development.

In November last year, four ministries and commissions jointly issued the "Notice on the Pilot Program for Access and Road Traffic of Intelligent Connected Vehicles", which made specific requirements for the access standards of L3/L4 autonomous driving and improved relevant rules. my country's high-level autonomous driving has clear policy support and responsibility definition.

BYD, Changan, Zhiji, BMW, Mercedes-Benz and many other domestic and foreign OEMs with L3 technical capabilities have actively applied. At present, many OEMs have announced that they have obtained conditional autonomous driving test licenses on highways or expressways.

It is not difficult to foresee that as more car companies join the research and development of L3 autonomous driving, high-level intelligent driving is expected to truly usher in a "qualitative change". Of course, at present, car companies mainly focus on NOA as the core focus.

Currently, high-speed NOA has entered large-scale mass production, and urban NOA has begun to become the focus of automobile companies in an attempt to seize the initiative.

Data shows that the number of vehicles equipped with pilot assisted driving has reached 940,000 in 2023. From 2023 to 2024, high-end intelligent driving functions represented by Urban NOA will be accelerated, and high-end intelligent driving models of brands such as Huawei and Xiaopeng will be released one after another, and many OEMs will launch implementation plans.

Huawei is undoubtedly one of the most radical leaders in intelligent driving. Its urban NCA, which it claims can be used throughout the country, has now been launched; Xiaopeng's XPILOT system has also entered the 4.0 stage, and its urban NGP covers 243 cities. In 2024, Xiaopeng XNGP will cover the country's major city networks, including internal roads, unnamed roads and parking lots.

Even Xiaomi, which has just released its first model, is stepping up the pace of expanding its Urban NOA. Lei Jun, chairman and CEO of Xiaomi Group, said that the entire Xiaomi SU7 series supports valet parking and parking in extremely narrow parking spaces, and high-speed navigation will be delivered as soon as it is launched. Urban NOA will start user testing in April, open in 10 cities in May, and be launched nationwide in August.

It is worth noting that NOA function is currently mainly equipped in self-owned mid-to-high-end models, and the models with NOA function as standard are mainly new power brands, with Ideal and Avita having a penetration rate of 100%. Among them, models in the price range of 350,000-400,000 account for the highest proportion, with a market share of 33.1%.

Currently, more than 70% of the models with standard NOA navigation function are mainly concentrated in the price range of more than 300,000 yuan. However, we can already see the emergence of mid- and low-end models such as Xiaopeng P5 and Baojun Yunduo. Gasgoo Automotive Research Institute believes that as the models equipped with navigation function gradually drop to the price range of about 150,000 yuan, the domestic NOA function-equipped models are expected to exceed 1.8 million in 2024, and the number of models equipped is expected to exceed 8.5 million in 2030.

Emphasis on perception and neglect of maps is still the mainstream, and LiDAR is entering a period of rapid growth

This round of urban NOA competition is ongoing, with the main focus on achieving larger-scale vehicle deployment at lower costs, so as to quickly collect data for algorithm optimization and model iteration.

The impact of price wars cannot be ignored, and higher requirements have been placed on the cost control of automakers. On this basis, "focusing on perception and neglecting maps" has become the prevailing mainstream solution, which is largely based on the cost considerations of automakers.

Car companies want to accelerate the expansion of urban NOA, but the high cost of collecting high-precision maps and the lack of freshness are obstacles to the opening of cities to a certain extent. The application of algorithms such as BEV+Transformer has enhanced the real-time perception ability of the vehicle side, reduced the dependence on maps, and light maps have become the mainstream.

In early February this year, Wenjie launched the first batch of "mapless NCA" push. In the OTA upgrade in March, all Wenjie models added urban intelligent driving navigation assistance that does not rely on high-precision maps, realizing City NCA that "can be driven throughout the country and on any road".

Recently, Zhiji Auto also announced that it will launch the public beta of "No-Picture City NOA" in Shenzhen, Guangzhou and Suzhou in April, and has started recruiting public beta users. According to the plan, Zhiji Auto will officially start pushing IM AD No-Picture City NOA in the middle of this year.

Gasgoo Automotive Research Institute believes that as autonomous driving algorithm technology rapidly matures and develops, it will evolve into a technical solution based on real-time perception capabilities + SD Pro maps/navigation maps in the future.

As one of the key sensors for improving vehicle intelligent driving perception capabilities, lidar is beginning to gain favor from more automakers.

Data shows that among the models that will come standard with L2 functions in 2023, the sensor solution is mainly 5V1R/5V3R, and most of the new cars with NOA functions have added lidar sensors to enhance the vehicle's perception capabilities.

The urban NOA intelligent driving products of brands such as Xiaopeng and Wenjie have confirmed that LiDAR is one of the key sensors to ensure the comfort and safety of the intelligent driving experience. Since 2024, with the launch of models such as Zeekr 001 and Zhiji L7, the trend of LiDAR becoming a standard feature in the field of intelligent vehicles has become increasingly obvious.

Competition in urban NOA and the development of L3 and above high-level autonomous driving models have driven the rapid growth of LiDAR installed in vehicles. LiDAR companies such as RoboSense and Hesai Technology may usher in a broader development stage.

Intelligent driving supply chain develops rapidly, and local forces become an important driving force

Among the many industry promoters, local manufacturers have gradually become the backbone.

At present, the advancement route of ADAS technology is clear, which can be divided into two categories: driving and parking. Driving includes some active safety functions and highway NOA and urban NOA; parking refers to the functions played in parking scenarios, such as memory parking and valet parking.

In the past, foreign Tier 1 companies have occupied a major market share in the fields of driving ADAS and parking. However, in the past two years, as local suppliers have begun to enter the market with their own brands, their share has continued to increase and is expected to increase further in the future.