Why is it so difficult for hydrogen fuel cell vehicles to enter the consumer market?

" The large-scale commercialization of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles is more difficult than the implementation of L4."

The above remarks can probably express in one sentence the views of most people in the industry on the future prospects of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles: there are prospects, but the prospects are far away...

This slightly pessimistic judgment can be seen from the stock market performance of hydrogen energy-related companies.

It is reported that as of now, there are only two domestic hydrogen energy-related listed companies, Yihuatong and Guohong Hydrogen Energy. Among them, Yihuatong is the earliest enterprise in my country to engage in the field of hydrogen energy. Its main business is the research and development and industrialization of hydrogen fuel cell engine systems. In August 2020, it was successfully listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange Science and Technology Innovation Board. In January 2023, it was listed on the Hong Kong stock market, achieving Listed in two places. In November 2023, Guohong Hydrogen Energy was listed on the main board of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and became my country's "second hydrogen energy stock". The company's main business is the research and development, production and sales of hydrogen fuel cells.

Specifically, judging from the stock market performance of the above two companies, when the Hong Kong stock market was listed in January last year, Yihuatong Global sold 17.628 million shares at an issue price of HK$60. On the first day of listing, Yihuatong opened flat and fell to HK$58.45 per share during the session, with its total market value falling below HK$7 billion.

Coincidentally, on December 5, 2023, Guohong Hydrogen Energy was listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. On the same day, the company fell by more than 26% at the beginning of the trading, and then rebounded in shock. On December 6, Guohong Hydrogen Energy closed down 16.16% at HK$16.60 per share, with a total market value of approximately HK$8.6 billion.

It has to be admitted that even if the stock market performs poorly, Yihuatong and Guohong Hydrogen are still the best among domestic hydrogen energy-related companies. After all, outside of the two, most hydrogen energy companies have IPOs. The road is overgrown with thorns. In 2022, Reshaping Shares and Guofu Hydrogen Energy successively withdrew their application documents; after a round of inquiries after being accepted at the end of June of the same year, Jet Hydrogen Technology also stalled due to expired financial information on September 30 of the same year...

So, what exactly is the “difficulty” in the hydrogen fuel cell vehicle industry? How can hydrogen fuel cell vehicle products cross the industry cycle and move from the B-side to the C-side? From a global perspective, as a supplement to the new energy path of automobiles, is the progress of my country's hydrogen fuel cell vehicle industry really lagging behind Japan and South Korea?

Battery costs are difficult to reduce: the difficulty lies in the process, not the raw materials

As two major branches of the new energy technology path for automobiles, today's hydrogen fuel cell vehicles face the same challenges as early electric vehicles : the high cost of power batteries is currently the key to the large-scale commercialization of the hydrogen fuel cell vehicle industry. One of the factors.

However, it is worth noting that the cost factors affecting lithium-ion batteries and hydrogen fuel cells are not the same.

After years of development, the technical path and manufacturing process of lithium-ion batteries have become relatively clear. The factors affecting electric vehicle power batteries are mainly the supply of raw materials.

Let’s look at the raw material side first. For a long time in the past, the rising price of battery-grade lithium carbonate has been a self-evident pain in the middle and lower reaches of the electric vehicle industry chain .

During the boom period of the electric vehicle power battery industry, in October 2022, West China Securities once bluntly stated: The current point is when the demand in the industry chain is strongest throughout the year. It is expected that supply will become increasingly tight in the fourth quarter (2022). Rule out the possibility that the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate will rise to 600,000 yuan/ton this winter (2022).

Affected by this, downstream new energy electric vehicle companies are full of complaints. Even Zeng Qinghong, chairman of GAC Group, once "complained" at the 2022 World Power Battery Conference: "Currently, except for Tesla making money, other new energy vehicle manufacturers are basically losing money. The cost of power batteries has accounted for 10% of new energy vehicles." 40%~50%, or even 60%, then am I not working for CATL now?”

But fortunately, after experiencing the bonus period, the price of lithium carbonate gradually dropped, falling below 100,000 yuan/ton. As of February 5, data released by Shanghai Steel Federation showed that the average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was 97,500 yuan/ton.

As a result, the conflicts between power battery manufacturers and downstream OEMs are no longer as "acute" as before.

Let’s look at the manufacturing process of electric vehicle batteries . Even though the price of lithium carbonate has fallen to a reasonable range, the fact that cannot be ignored is that power batteries still account for a large share of vehicle production costs. In addition, the "price war" among electric vehicle OEMs has intensified, and their demand for cost reduction has also increased. Note. As a result, innovating power battery manufacturing processes to reduce battery costs has become the choice of most OEMs.

At present, electric vehicle OEMs have figured out multiple ways to reduce costs in lithium-ion battery processes.

For example, in June 2023, Thomas Schmall, chairman of the supervisory board of the Volkswagen Group's battery unit PowerCo, said in a statement that the Volkswagen Group and its technology partner Koenig & Bauer have mastered a battery manufacturing process called dry coating. , if promoted on a large scale, it can reduce battery production costs by hundreds of millions of euros every year.

Volkswagen said it has produced hundreds of batteries using the process on a pilot production line and expects to launch industrial production by 2027. Schmall said that combined with increased production scale and the use of cheaper raw materials, Volkswagen hopes this process will help reduce battery costs by about 50%.

In addition, Miao Wei, member of the Standing Committee of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference and deputy director of the Economic Committee, also proposed that cost reduction on the production side can be achieved by reducing battery specifications. "While the installation design remains unchanged, different battery capacities are provided according to different cruising range and power requirements to meet different needs. This kind of modular application can be realized on a large scale on both the single and module sides. Automated production can significantly reduce production costs." Miao Wei said.

In contrast, hydrogen fuel cells are less affected by the supply of battery raw materials than lithium-ion batteries. However, it needs to be mentioned that hydrogen fuel cells still face major challenges in the manufacturing process, and their impact on the price of hydrogen fuel cells cannot be underestimated.

Hydrogen fuel cells are different from common lithium batteries . The former system is more complex and mainly consists of a stack and system components (air compressor, humidifier, hydrogen circulation pump, hydrogen bottle).

Among them, the stack is the core of the entire battery system, including each battery unit composed of membrane electrodes and bipolar plates , as well as current collecting plates, end plates, sealing rings, etc.

It is reported that the fuel cell system accounts for more than 60% of the purchase cost of hydrogen vehicles, and the stack cost also accounts for more than 60% of the fuel cell system, making it the highest cost item for hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. Therefore, reducing stack costs is the key to improving the economy of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles.

However, the manufacturing process of electric stacks is extremely complex and costly.

Take Toyota's mass-produced hydrogen fuel cell vehicle Mirai stack as an example. The stack achieves the world's leading volume power density of 3.1kW/L for the first time, and features self-humidification performance, 3Dfine-mesh titanium alloy flow field, high durability and strong environmental adaptability.

According to the schematic diagram of the fuel cell stack production process released by Toyota, the formation process of the stack mainly starts from the blending and preparation of catalyst slurry, to the preparation of the catalytic layer by intermittent slot die coating, and then transfer to the proton exchange membrane, and then with The waterproof-treated gas diffusion layer is hot-pressed to prepare the MEA, and finally assembled with the surface-modified titanium metal plate to form a Mirai fuel cell stack.

According to Gasgoo analysts, the catalyst cost accounts for more than one-third of the stack cost. As the stack shipments increase, the scale effect will be further enhanced. The other higher-cost components such as proton exchange membranes and gas diffusion Layers, etc. will further reduce costs, and catalysts will become the largest single cost component.

It is reported that Toyota Mirai catalyst is prepared by intermittent slot die coating method. S AI Company has conducted a study on the cost of Toyota Mirai battery stacks. The study mentioned that the approximate cost of the catalytic layer preparation process through the intermittent slot die coating method is US$800 per stack.

It should also be mentioned that up to now, from a global perspective, Japanese car companies represented by Toyota have been deeply involved in the technical fields related to the hydrogen fuel cell industry for a long time. The cost of their battery stack manufacturing process is still so high, let alone the same technology. other companies in the field.