Power battery industry chain map and market competition landscape analysis-EEWORLD

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introduction

2022 is the year when new energy vehicle sales will explode. The International Energy Agency (IEA) announced that the total global sales of new energy vehicles in 2022 will exceed 10 million units. The total sales of new energy vehicles in my country reached 6.89 million units, accounting for nearly 70% of the global share, and the penetration rate exceeded 25%. It achieved the 20% development goal three years ahead of schedule, greatly exceeding the expectations of industry insiders and consumers. As the heart of new energy vehicles, how is the development of power battery systems? This article will analyze the industry map, technological progress, technological routes, market prospects, competitive landscape, and development trends one by one.

Industry map

Power battery systems are mainly installed on new energy passenger vehicles and commercial vehicles to provide driving force. From the perspective of energy-carrying media, current mainstream power batteries include lithium batteries , sodium batteries, and hydrogen fuel cells .

Lithium batteries are mainly composed of battery cells, BMS and corresponding electrical and structural components. The battery cells can be divided into five parts: positive electrode, negative electrode, separator, electrolyte and current collector.

Figure 1: Lithium power battery system industry map

Source: Firestone Creation Industry Data Center

Sodium batteries and lithium batteries have similar working principles and similar structures. The battery core can also be divided into five parts: positive electrode, negative electrode, separator, electrolyte, and current collector. Relatively speaking, there are fewer participants in the sodium battery system industry.

Figure 2: Sodium power battery system industry map

Source: Firestone Creation Industry Data Center

The hydrogen fuel cell system is mainly composed of a stack, a hydrogen storage tank, a hydrogen circulation pump, an air compressor and other corresponding electrical and structural components. It is mainly installed in commercial vehicles.

Figure 3: Hydrogen fuel cell system industry map

Source: Firestone Creation Industry Data Center

Technological progress: Progressive evolution presses the accelerator button

It has been more than 100 years since the French used lead-acid batteries as power batteries at the end of the 19th century to create the world's first drivable electric vehicle . But the real story of modern power batteries begins with the large-scale application of lithium batteries. In 1997, a Japanese company installed lithium batteries originally used in electronic products on cars, creating the world's first lithium battery-powered car.

After more than 20 years of development, especially in recent years, lithium batteries have accelerated their evolution in terms of materials , formulas, structures, etc., including high-voltage, silicon-based, high-nickel, manganese-doped, cobalt-free, semi-solid, low-temperature control, fast charging and other technologies. Blade batteries , Kirin batteries, magazine batteries, dragon scale batteries, 4680 large cylindrical batteries, etc. are emerging one after another . The single energy density has increased from less than 100Wh/kg to more than 200Wh/kg. CATL has adopted high-nickel NCM Technology, silicon-doped lithium supplementation technology, and CTP grouping technology have achieved a breakthrough in energy density of 265Wh/kg, and a driving range of 1,000 kilometers is no longer out of reach; the cost of power batteries has also been declining steadily, and the power battery per kilowatt hour The market price has dropped to less than 1,000 yuan; the passive safety performance of the battery has been greatly improved. It does not catch fire with a needle or explode with a gun, which has become the entry standard in the industry.

Figure 4: Development trend of power batteries

Source: Firestone Creation Industry Data Center

Relatively speaking, the cost of sodium batteries is lower, and the overall cost is 30%-40% lower than that of lithium batteries. The energy density of Honeycomb Energy’s first-generation sodium-ion battery prototype has reached 110Wh/kg. In the future, with the increase of energy density and cycle life With the improvement of technology, sodium-ion batteries will become a powerful competitor and substitute for lithium-ion batteries in the low-speed and short-range field.

The energy density of hydrogen fuel is much higher than that of traditional fuel, and much higher than that of lithium and sodium. It has the advantages of clean combustion products and fast refueling speed. It is an ideal power source and an important development direction in the long run.

Technical route: short-term parallel development of power battery systems with different technical routes

At present, lithium battery technology is more mature and widely used. But this does not mean that there is no room for development of other types of power batteries. Different types of power batteries have their own characteristics in terms of energy density, output power, and manufacturing cost. They can be adapted to different application scenarios and will develop in parallel in the short term. Multi-tech route layout has also become a common choice of many car companies.

Figure 5: Priority application areas of different types of batteries

Source: Firestone Creation Industry Data Center

Market Outlook: Overcapacity and insufficient supply will coexist for a long time

In 2022, the national power battery installed capacity will reach 260.94GWh, 86% year-on-year, and the installed market size will exceed 200 billion yuan. Among the power battery installed capacity, ternary battery installed capacity is 105GWh, accounting for 40%, a decrease of 13% from 2021, lithium iron phosphate battery installed capacity is 155GWh, accounting for 59%, and the total installed capacity of hydrogen fuel cells is less than 1GWh, accounting for less than 1 %.

It is conservatively estimated that by 2025, the national power battery installed capacity will exceed 600GWh, and the installed market size will exceed 500 billion yuan.

Figure 6: National power battery installed capacity trend chart

Source: Firestone Creation Industry Data Center

Among them, lithium-ion battery systems will maintain steady and rapid growth, and semi-solid/solid lithium, sodium-ion, and hydrogen fuel cell systems will usher in explosive growth. It is estimated that in 2025, the market size of lithium-ion battery systems, semi-solid/solid-state lithium battery systems, sodium-ion battery systems, and hydrogen fuel cell systems will reach 400 billion yuan, 70 billion yuan, 20 billion yuan, and 10 billion yuan respectively.

Table 1: Market forecast for different types of power batteries

Source: Firestone Creation Industry Data Center

Taking advantage of the development of new energy vehicles, power battery companies have begun to compete for land. The Yangtze River Delta, Guangdong, Hong Kong, Macao, and Sichuan and Chongqing are key areas for R&D and production capacity layout. Judging from the planned production capacity for 2025 that power battery companies have released, the total has exceeded 4TWh. , the planned production capacity is seriously overcapacity, which will take a long time to digest. From the actual production point of view, some companies are also severely under-started. However, at the same time, there is an insufficient supply of high-quality power batteries. The industry clearly shows "overcapacity in total and structural overcapacity." "sex shortage" characteristics.

Table 2: Cities where power battery companies are deployed

Source: Firestone Creation Industry Data Center

Competition landscape: market share is concentrated in both leading companies and domestic companies

Market concentration has increased significantly. The market share of the TOP10 companies increased from 86.9% in 2019 to 94.6% in Q1 of 2023, an increase of 7.7 percentage points. The market share of TOP5 companies increased from 75.6% in 2019 to 80% in Q1 of 2023, an increase of 4.4 percentage points.

The market share of domestic enterprises has increased significantly. Among the TOP10, domestic companies have increased from 4 in 2019 to 5 in Q1 of 2023, and their market share has also increased significantly. In particular, CATL's market share increased from 27.9% to 35%, ranking first in global shipments for many years. BYD also increased from 9.5% to 16.2%, surpassing LG and Panasonic and jumping to second place in global shipments.

Figure 7: Global power battery installed market share in 2019

Figure 8: Global power battery installed market share in Q1 2023

Development trend: balancing technology and cost, standardized development

Through continuous technological innovation, exploring the ceiling of energy density and pursuing the intrinsic safety of batteries will remain the main tasks of the development of battery companies. At the same time, they must balance the relationship between technological advancement and cost, and even partially sacrifice technological advancement to achieve low cost. Cost and market acceptability are also options that power battery companies must consider.

Moderate overcapacity can help activate market competition, but large overcapacity will cause a waste of resources and is not conducive to the healthy development of the industry. Power battery companies have shifted from "roll production capacity" to "roll innovation" and the industry has moved from disorderly development to standardized development. inevitable choice.

As power battery technology becomes more and more mature, technical standards and specifications are also on the agenda, such as the standardization of power battery specifications and sizes. At the same time, as the first phalanx country in power batteries, the establishment of "Chinese standards for power batteries" is also an inevitable choice for our country to participate in international competition and build core capabilities.