Foreseeing 2022: "A Panoramic View of China's Solid-State Battery Industry in 2022" (with market status, competition landscape, development prospects, etc.)

Major listed companies in the solid-state battery industry include BYD (002594), SAIC Motor (600104), NIO, CATL ( 300750), Farasis Energy (688567), and Guoxuan High-tech (002074), etc.

Core data of this article: solid-state battery industry chain, industry panorama, upstream and downstream supply of the industry, industry competition, and development prospects

Industry Overview

1. Definition: High security

Solid-state batteries refer to lithium-ion batteries that use solid electrolytes . Compared with traditional lithium batteries , the most prominent advantage of all-solid-state batteries is safety. Solid-state batteries have the characteristics of inhibiting lithium dendrites, no interface side reactions, no electrolyte leakage, good high-temperature performance, and no bloating. The forward-looking summary of the characteristics and corresponding advantages of solid-state batteries is as follows:

2. Industry chain analysis: solid electrolyte materials are the key

The solid-state battery industry chain is roughly similar to that of liquid lithium batteries new energy vehicles , energy storage systems, consumer electronics, etc.

Analyzing the ecological map of China's solid-state battery industry, Qianzhan believes that solid-state battery manufacturers have strong vertical integration capabilities. Manufacturers in the battery core material preparation link include new energy material manufacturers such as Shanshan Co., Ltd., Tianqi Lithium , Ganfeng Lithium , and Tianfeng New Materials, as well as power battery manufacturers such as CATL and Qingtao Energy , and also include automakers such as Toyota. The types of companies are diverse and the entry directions are diversified.

Industry development history: the industry is in the early stages of commercialization

China's research on solid-state batteries can be traced back to at least the 1970s, almost at the same time as the research on lithium-ion batteries. However, the excellent performance of lithium-ion batteries has gained more recognition, and has made great progress and commercial applications in the past 50 years, becoming the most widely used battery system in the market. However, due to concerns about lithium supply shortages and higher requirements for energy density, safety, etc., solid-state batteries have re-entered the ranks of key R&D products in the industry since 2015.

Upstream supply situation: Raw material output grows steadily

Based on the upstream market situation, the article summarizes the impact of upstream supply in China's solid-state battery industry as follows:

——Cathode materials: supply steadily increases

Solid-state battery positive electrode materials mainly include lithium manganese oxide, lithium iron phosphate , and ternary positive electrode materials. Their production has shown a steady growth trend in recent years. In 2021, the production reached 111,100 tons, 459,100 tons, and 398,000 tons, respectively.

——Negative electrode materials: Graphite materials have been industrialized

At present, in the domestic market, graphite negative electrode material technology is relatively mature and has been industrialized. While meeting the needs of the domestic market, it also supplies the global market. In 2021, China's global market share of negative electrode materials increased from 85% in 2020 to 92%. In 2021, China's output of negative electrode materials was 815,900 tons, up 76% year-on-year.

Downstream development: New energy vehicle production is growing rapidly

The continuous innovation of downstream application fields has put forward higher and higher requirements for the lithium battery industry, and lithium battery technology has also been continuously improving, moving towards higher specific energy and safety. From the perspective of the development path of lithium battery technology, the energy density that liquid lithium batteries can achieve has gradually approached its limit, and solid-state lithium batteries will be the only way for the development of lithium batteries. The downstream demand for solid-state batteries includes three major areas: consumer batteries, power batteries, and energy storage batteries. Among them, the market prospects for new energy vehicle power batteries are the most promising. The release and implementation of the "dual carbon" goals in 2021 have accelerated the progress of transformation, and China's new energy vehicle production has grown rapidly to 3.677 million units.

Current status of industrial development

1. Supply: Mass production is expected to be achieved in 2025

At present, the technical difficulties of all-solid electrolyte lithium power batteries include low lithium ion conductivity of solid electrolyte materials, poor solid/solid interface contact and stability, and rechargeability of metallic lithium. When comparing the mass production schedules of companies with relatively advanced solid-state battery technology, it is found that most of them mention a time point of 2025 for mass production.

2. Demand: New energy vehicles are the main demand area for solid-state batteries

The article summarizes and analyzes the three major demand areas for solid-state batteries as follows:

Industry competition landscape

1. Regional competition

From the perspective of the regional distribution of China's solid-state battery industry chain enterprises, solid-state battery industry chain enterprises are mainly distributed in Guangdong, Beijing, Shanghai, Jiangsu and other regions. This is mainly because the above regions have strong economic and scientific research strength and relatively complete related industrial layout.

2. Enterprise competition

Judging from the distribution of representative enterprises/institutions, there are more representative enterprises/institutions in the Bohai Rim and Yangtze River Delta regions. Among them, Beijing has enterprises/institutions with strong scientific research capabilities such as the Institute of Physics of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, the Institute of Chemistry of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Jiangxin, and Guolian Power.

The article summarizes the important industrialization projects in China's solid-state battery industry and analyzes the current status of industry project construction. It can be seen that the industry's small and micro solid-state batteries have the capacity for large-scale production, while the automotive supporting solid-state batteries with relatively higher scale and technology are initially entering the trial mass production stage, so no company has yet occupied a stable market share. Therefore, the article uses weighted calculations based on key indicators of solid-state battery companies such as commercial production planning cycle, product production line construction investment, and core technology research and development to derive the top 5 companies in the industry as follows:

Note: Star rating is 1-5, ☆ means half a star, no further explanation is given below.

Industry development prospects and trend forecasts

1. Market competition will become more intense in the future

The article predicts the development trend of China's solid-state battery industry from the aspects of market competition, technological innovation, and market segments as follows:

2. Market demand is expected to reach 26GWh in 2027

China's solid-state battery market is closely related to the demand for lithium batteries in the three major areas of consumption, power, and energy storage, as well as the penetration rate of solid-state batteries in these three areas. China's lithium battery production is expected to exceed 1,200GWh in 2027. Combined with the industry's forecast of solid-state battery penetration, it is estimated that China's solid-state battery market space in 2027 will be about 26GWh.

For more research and analysis on this industry, please refer to the "China Solid-State Battery Industry Market Outlook and Investment Strategy Planning Analysis Report" by Forward-looking Industry Research Institute.