软包电池为何国外开花国内不香？

软包电池在中国，似乎越来越不受待见。

2020年前5月，中国软包动力电池累计市场份额低至4.3%。

而2018年，中国软包动力电池市场占有率还在13%以上。

从装机量上来看，2020年软包电池的装机量下滑速度超过动力电池整体市场。根据整车出厂合格证数据，2020年前5月，软包电池装机543.89MWh，累计同比下滑74.5%，远超过整体装机量45.4%下滑幅度。前5月方形电池装机量同比下滑49.7%，也明显小于软包的下滑幅度。

资料来源：整车出厂合格证数据

与此相对的是，软包电池在国际市场上蓬勃发展。2019年，全球销量排名前十的新能源乘用车中，软包电池配套上升至 4 款。全球软包动力电池 企业 LGC、SKI、AESC等已为大众、奥迪、日产、现代起亚、通用、雷诺等车企配置了多款主流车型，其中，日产 Leaf 车型使用软包动力电池，该车型自2010年12月上市至今，总销量已经突破50万辆。

国外采用软包电池的车企和车型

资料来源：根据公开资料整理

从上述车型可以看出，国际车企对软包电池还是青睐有加的。

唯独中国市场软包电池的装机市场占有率下滑明显。是软包技术路线问题，车企不认可？还是中国软包电池供应商产品质量问题？

要弄清这个问题，首先要了解下软包电池。

1  软包电池的优劣势

所谓软包电池，是相比圆柱和方形这两种硬壳电池的一种叫法，其内部组成(正极、负极、隔膜、电解液)与方形、圆柱锂电池的区别不大，最大的不同之处在于软包电池采用铝塑复合膜作为外壳，方形和圆柱电池则采用金属材料作为外壳。

软包电池的优劣势都有哪些呢？孚能科技在招股说明书中总结了软包电池的四大优势，三大劣势。

优势主要集中在能量密度高、安全性好、内阻小及设计灵活方面。

首先，能量密度高，GGII数据显示，目前动力电池行 业 内 量 产 的 三 元 软 包 动 力 电 池 平 均 电 芯 能 量 密 度 已 达240-250Wh/kg，但同材料体系的三元方形动力电池能量密度为 210-230Wh/kg。三元软包动力电池单体电芯能量密度比三元方形动力电池平均高10%-15%。

其次，安全性能好。同材料体系下，三元软包动力电池在铝塑膜软包封装下，如果发生电池热失控，一般胀气释放热量；而方形、圆柱电池由于采用硬壳包装，热量无法释放，内部压力较大，则会引起爆炸。

另外，采用卷绕生产工艺的方形、圆柱电池，随着电池使用时间增加，更容易出现电池内部温度不一、应力分布不均匀，尤其是卷绕弯曲处，从而产生安全隐患。

第三，三元软包动力电池具备容量大、内阻小的电化学性能优势。三元软包动力电池由于内阻较小，可以极大的降低电池的自耗电，提升电池倍率性能、循环寿命，产热量小。

第四，电芯层面，三元软包动力电池电芯的尺寸以及形状设计灵活。企业可以依据自身产品设计、客户需求进行定制。在模组和电池包层面，三元软包动力电池的空间布局更为灵活，可以呈矩形或T字形布局，能够满足更多车型对动力电池的空间要求。

劣势则体现在工艺上更为复杂、成组效率低及成本高三方面。

例如，封装环节等较难控制，容易发生鼓胀等问题，使得产品一致性较差，对企业的技术水平、制造工艺等提出了更高的要求；相对于同材料体系的方形、圆柱动力电池，三元软包动力电池成组效率相对较低；三元软包动力电池电芯的自我保护性较差，在出现极端情况时容易被刺穿，因而在电池包环节需要加入金属防护层等给予更多的保护，会带来成本提升的问题。

那么是这些劣势，导致软包电池市场占比不断下滑的么？

恐怕没那么简单。从数据上看，近几年，中国搭载软包电池的车型有明显增加，2016-2019年配套软包动力电池的新车型数目分为67、72、95和103款。

这说明车企对软包电池的接受度在提升，但是配套的规模却没有显著提升。同时也说明车企对软包电池仍抱有疑虑。

车企的疑虑到底是什么？

2  车企、系统集成商对软包有疑虑

《电动汽车观察家》在采访中发现，车企有两种态度，一种企业对技术路线有偏好，例如长安习惯采用方形电池、江淮更喜欢采用圆柱电池；另一类企业对技术路线没有特殊偏好，只要能符合要求即可，这类车企比较多。

（1）某传统车企：中国品牌软包电池安全、一致性不满足需求

“在软包电池上吃过亏。”某车企动力技术副总工程师张先生对《电动汽车观察家》说，之前软包质量情况并不好，电池会出现鼓胀、漏液情况，一致性、安全性都不好，车企采用存在一定风险。

“我们现在习惯采用方形电池。”张先生坦言。“就我们去过国内一些软包企业来看，他们质量控制的水平比方形电池还是低一些。”

张先生认为，LG化学、远景AESC和SKI做软包电池的基础更扎实，他们对软包的控制更加严格，产品质量应该会更好一些，不过这些企业还没有在国内推这些产品，比中国品牌的企业好多少还不清楚。

（2）合众：方形、软包都喜欢用

合众汽车就是典型方形软包都能接纳的车企。合众汽车研究院院长邓晓光表示，他们方形和软包电池都喜欢用。不过随着国内CTP（cell to pack）电池包使用的逐渐增多，软包电池的短板就暴露出来了。软包电芯的结构强度不够，因此模组不能完全省掉。

哪吒N01主要搭载软包和方形电池，及少部分圆柱电池

此外，电芯的发展趋势也是在逐渐做大。软包电池厚度上受到铝塑膜限制，因此只能在长度和宽幅上不断延伸，才能将电池容量做大；或者是采用镍含量更高的正极材料，增加化学活性来提升单体容量。

软包电池采用叠片技术，对对齐和毛刺的工艺要求很高，“稍微对不齐或者有毛刺，就会造成内短路。”

邓晓光告诉《电动汽车观察家》，他了解的几家软包企业，电芯长度做到500-600mm就已经到极限了，再长一些，生产工艺就算不过来账了，直通率就会大幅下降。

因此，在集成效率和电芯厚度方向上，方形硬壳电池完胜。因此，车企对方形电池更加偏爱。

（3）江淮：软包电池不能满足热失控和寿命要求

江淮是一家典型的以圆柱电芯为主的企业，并有少量的方形硬壳电池。谈起为何不采用软包电芯，江淮汽车新能源汽车研究院电动车平台总监秦李伟告诉《电动汽车观察家》，江淮对电池的热失控要求比较高，“我们的目标是一颗电芯爆炸，不引发电池热失控，只有圆柱电池可以做到。”

其次，他对软包电芯的寿命也有疑虑。一般来说，电动汽车的整车寿命是十年以上，软包电池铝塑膜的寿命还没有得到验证，成组后能不能达到整车寿命时间是不确定的。

第三，软包电芯的供应链不完善，对供货稳定性存在疑虑。

由于软包路线和中国主流路线有所差异，部分原材料、生产设备的采购渠道仍较为单一，主要包括铝塑膜、锂电池生产设备、少量辅材等，相关供应商一旦出现问题，将对电池企业生产经营及产线建设，以及整车企业供货稳定性上产生一定的不利影响。

这里所指的原材料应该是铝塑膜。根据公开资料显示，国内企业生产的铝塑膜进展总需求量的7%—8%，绝大部分依赖进口。中国市场几乎被日本DNP（约50%）、日本昭和电动（20%）、日本T&T（10%—15%）韩国栗村化学（约9%）四家瓜分。

In 2016, Selen Science & Technology spent 9.5 billion yen to acquire T&T's aluminum-plastic film business, obtaining T&T's lithium battery aluminum-plastic film factory and related assets in Mie Prefecture, Japan, and obtaining an exclusive license in China and a non-exclusive license in Japan for all patents and proprietary technologies for the manufacture and sale of aluminum-plastic film soft package products.

At present, Xinlun Technology has established two production lines in Changzhou with a total production capacity of 5 million square meters per month. According to the plan, two more production lines will be built. After reaching full capacity, the production capacity will be advanced to 150 million square meters per year.

In other words, there are not many aluminum-plastic film companies that can gain recognition from soft-pack battery companies and have production capacity in China. From the perspective of vehicle manufacturers, this means that the supply of upstream raw materials for batteries is risky.

From the perspective of battery system integrators, soft-pack batteries also pose a big problem.

(4) A battery system integrator: Soft packs are not easy to use

When talking about soft-pack batteries, Mr. Liu, the head of a battery system integrator, bluntly stated that soft-pack batteries are not easy to use.

Mr. Liu said that from the perspective of grouping, soft-pack batteries are relatively soft, so a lot of plastic brackets must be installed outside the battery cells, which wastes a lot of space and has a relatively low grouping efficiency.

The capacity of soft-pack battery cells cannot be too large. Due to the limitations of the aluminum-plastic film, the thickness of the battery cells will not be too large, and it can only be compensated in length and width. Battery cells that are too long and too wide are difficult to place in the battery pack.

Therefore, the capacity of soft-pack batteries is relatively small, so many batteries need to be connected in parallel in the battery pack, which leads to the need for structural supports and current busbars in the middle, and the cost of the battery pack is much higher.

Mr. Liu believes that most car companies with higher cost requirements will not use soft-pack batteries.

3. Size, cost and subsidy policy restrict the development of soft pack

Soft-pack battery companies have their own opinions on why they cannot seize market share.

Ms. Chen, the strategic director of a domestic soft-pack battery company, feels a little helpless about this. She believes that this is due to the market environment. "CATL has the highest market share in the Chinese market and has a strong binding relationship with vehicle manufacturers. Soft-pack battery companies have small production capacity and can only negotiate with car companies as secondary suppliers, so their market share is relatively small," said Ms. Chen.

Soft pack power battery

Most of them are secondary suppliers, which is also related to the small size of soft-pack battery companies. Ms. Chen told Electric Vehicle Observer that due to CATL's large size, its product supply is more stable, "choosing them will not cause big problems, but choosing other companies may be risky."

This risk refers to whether the supply can be stable.

In fact, if the cost of raw materials is the same, the cost of soft-pack batteries will be lower. However, due to the difference in the purchase volume of enterprises, it is difficult for the price of raw materials to be completely consistent with that of manufacturers of CATL's size.

Regarding the grouping efficiency, Ms. Chen believes that it is not necessarily that the square pack is higher than the soft pack. This is mainly based on the platform of the car company. The grouping efficiency of different envelopes varies greatly, and the grouping rate is between 60% and 76%. "When the grouping rate is high, it is not worse than the square battery."

In the opinion of industry insiders, it takes a lot of time to improve the quality of soft-pack batteries, and the knowledge and resource reserves in this area are less than those for square-shell batteries.

The production process of ternary soft-pack power batteries is more complicated. For example, the packaging process is difficult to control and is prone to problems such as bulging, which makes the product consistency poor and puts higher requirements on the company's technical level and manufacturing process.

In addition to scale and process difficulty, policy changes have an indirect impact on soft-pack batteries. Mr. Zhang, an engineer at the aforementioned traditional automobile company, said that this was related to the rapid decline in fiscal subsidies in 2019. The cost of soft-pack batteries is still relatively expensive, and the advantages of large-capacity square batteries are more prominent. The rapid progress of square batteries has further squeezed the market share of soft-pack batteries.

4 Prospects: PHEV, HEV and joint ventures

Is there no hope for soft-pack batteries in China?

Not really.

Mr. Liu, the head of the aforementioned battery integrator, believes that the application of soft-pack batteries can fully play to their strengths and avoid their weaknesses, for example, they can be used in PHEV and HEV models that are not so sensitive to cost.

Mr. Liu explained that PHEV and HEV models require relatively small battery capacities, and the cost of using smaller-capacity square batteries is not low. However, soft-pack batteries have better heat dissipation and their safety advantages are reflected.

The development of joint ventures and foreign-funded automobile companies also brings hope for soft-pack batteries.

Ms. Zhang, marketing manager of another Chinese soft-pack battery company, believes that joint venture automakers and foreign automakers are vigorously developing new energy vehicles, many of which use soft-pack batteries, and China's soft-pack battery market share will be boosted.

In the international market, there are many car companies that use soft-pack batteries. These car companies have their own ideas and plans for the technical route. For example, LG Chem's major customers such as Volkswagen, General Motors, Daimler, Hyundai, and Nissan will adopt soft-pack batteries on a large scale; in the Chinese market, these companies often also adopt the battery route they are familiar with.

New energy vehicle strategies of global vehicle manufacturers

Source: Research on the Timetable for the Exit of Traditional Fuel Vehicles in China and public data

Ms. Zhang believes that as the production and sales of the above-mentioned automakers increase, the opportunities for soft-pack battery companies cannot be underestimated.

It can be seen that in the international market, car companies have a good recognition of soft-pack batteries. The low market share of soft-pack batteries in China is due to the particularity of the industry's development: China's square battery market share is large, leaving little market for soft-pack companies, which may be the main reason for the slow growth of corporate scale and technology.

How to break through this bottleneck? It may be a good choice for companies like Farasis Energy and Guoxuan High-tech to hold on to a big tree and make further progress in brand, product quality and performance.