Power battery observation: CATL 811 has stable supply, Lishen Battery ranks third for the first time

Source: Number of vehicle factory certificates; Analysis and charting: Electric Vehicle Observer

As expected, the installed capacity of power batteries still fell sharply in October compared with the same period last year. It is difficult for observers to find good news to comfort everyone. But in fact, we don’t want to give people chicken soup. Business is achieved through hard work. Looking for so-called "positive energy" is actually meaningless.

We still found some interesting developments. For example, after CATL's 811 battery debuted at the beginning of the year, its growth was very slow, but it has been supplied steadily in recent months. NIO, WM Motor, GAC and others have already tasted 811. In addition, Lishen, a veteran power battery company, was encouraged and ranked third in monthly installed capacity.

Please see the detailed analysis.

1. Overview: The installed capacity in October has declined year-on-year for three consecutive months

In October, the installed capacity of power batteries showed signs of recovery, but was still lower than the same period last year.

In October, the installed capacity of automotive power batteries was 4.07GWh, down 33.61% year-on-year and up 3.04% month-on-month; from January to September, the cumulative installed capacity of power batteries was 46.18GWh, up 29.41% year-on-year, with the growth rate narrowing.

2. Company analysis: The "one super" pattern remains unchanged, Lishen rushes to third place

CATL still stands out from the crowd. In October, although CATL's installed capacity declined both year-on-year and month-on-month, its market share was 55%.

BYD's market share is 12%, the same as in September. In recent months, CATL's installed capacity is about 4.8 times that of BYD, and its overall share is relatively stable.

The new news is that the veteran power battery company Lishen has moved up to third place.

Source: Number of vehicle factory certificates; Analysis and mapping: Electric Vehicle Observer Note: CATL data includes SAIC Motor data

1. CATL's installed capacity in October still decreased month-on-month

In October, CATL installed 2.24GWh of capacity, down 9.8% year-on-year and 0.5% month-on-month.

From January to October, CATL's installed capacity was 23.80GWh, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 66.9%.

The sales of models that CATL previously supplied with good sales have declined recently, resulting in a sharp drop in the supply volume; fortunately, the supply of new enterprises and models has been followed up in time, resulting in a small overall decline. In terms of enterprises, CATL's supply volume for BAIC New Energy, Dongfeng Passenger Vehicle and Commercial Vehicle, Chery New Energy, Geely Geometry A, Emgrand EV and Emgrand GSE has declined.

Of course, in October, CATL also saw a significant increase in the supply of several models. For example, the supply volume for GAC Trumpchi AION.S, SAIC Group's Roewe Ei5, and FAW-Volkswagen's e-BORA, e-GOLF and Q2L were relatively large; in addition, the supply volume for Great Wall Ora R1 also increased month-on-month.

Source: Number of vehicle factory certificates; Analysis and mapping: Electric Vehicle Observer Note: CATL data includes SAIC Motor data

In October, BYD's installed capacity was 468.38MWh, down 64.5% year-on-year, but down 0.2% month-on-month. From January to October, BYD's installed capacity was 9.20GWh, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 12%.

Judging from the data in recent months, BYD's installed capacity has opened up a large gap with CATL. Judging from this year's market performance, it is difficult for BYD to narrow this gap. If the market can improve next year, BYD's installed capacity may improve.

2. The ranking of the second-tier market continues to fluctuate

The second-tier battery companies, which provide supporting services to more passenger vehicle companies, rank relatively high overall; the companies that rely solely on commercial vehicles have more obvious fluctuations in their rankings.

As the production of commercial vehicles increased significantly in October, the installed capacity of battery companies mainly engaged in commercial vehicles has improved. However, the entire new energy vehicle market has slowed down, and the installed capacity of many battery companies has declined. The installed capacity of companies that actively develop users is relatively good.

In October, Lishen made great efforts and entered the third place. In October, Lishen performed very well and began to supply two new models of Dongfeng, namely EV power and EV350, and began to increase the supply of Guangqi Honda and Dongfeng Honda.

Specifically, Lishen's supply to Dongfeng Honda's Qinwei (X-NV) increased from 0.8MWh in September to 111.92MWh; and its supply to Guangqi Honda's VE-1 increased from 9.06MWh in September to 67.11MWh. In addition, since October, Lishen has begun to supply FAW Jiefang Qingdao Automobile Co., Ltd.

The data shows that Lishen's installation performance was not outstanding in the second half of the year, mainly due to its high dependence on JAC. As JAC's sales declined, the overall supporting volume declined. In the past two months, with the increase in the number of supporting companies and the increase in the supporting volume for Baojun E100, Lishen's supporting volume has increased significantly.

The increase in sales of FAW Bestune B30EV400 has driven the installed capacity of Sandon and Farasis to increase.

In October, the volume of Sandon's equipment also grew rapidly, with a month-on-month increase of 209%, mainly due to the increase in the volume of equipment for FAW Bestune B30EV400.

In October, Xinwangda's decline was mainly due to a sharp drop in the volume of supporting Dihao GSE on a month-on-month basis.

Recently, Farasis' supply to BAIC and Great Wall Ora has been reduced. In October, Farasis began to supply FAW Bestune B30EV400.

The growth of Kane in October was mainly due to the rapid growth of its supply volume for Jiangling New Energy's Yizhi EV3. However, its supply volume for Baojun E100 decreased.

In October, the installed capacity of lithium power sources increased by 65% ​​month-on-month, mainly due to the significant increase in the supporting capacity for Dongfeng E11Kh and E17.

In October, the installed capacity of Jiewei Power decreased, mainly due to the decline in installations for Chery and Nezha 01. Since October, Jiewei Power has started to supply GC1 and GC2 of Zhonghengtian Zhijun.

In October, Guoxuan High-tech's supply to Changhe, Shenzhen Kaiwo, etc. increased, and the number of eQ1 installations decreased, but the installations to JAC and Ankai also decreased, resulting in a significant drop in installed capacity, causing the installed capacity to decline month-on-month.

In October, Yuliang Battery had the highest month-on-month growth rate, reaching 303%, mainly due to the large month-on-month growth of commercial vehicles. Yuliang Battery only supplies two commercial vehicle companies, namely Yichun Bus Factory and Nanjing Golden Dragon Bus, especially Nanjing Golden Dragon Bus.

Installed capacity of the top 20 enterprises in October (unit: MWh)

Source: Electric Vehicle Observer, based on the statistics of vehicle factory certificates Note: CATL data includes SAIC

From January to October, there were five companies with a cumulative installed capacity of more than 5GWh: CATL ranked first with a cumulative installed capacity of 23.80GWh, accounting for 51%; BYD ranked second with 9.20GWh, accounting for 20%; Guoxuan High-tech ranked third with 2.43GWh, accounting for 5.2%.

As of October, CATL's market share was basically the same as in September, with a cumulative installed capacity accounting for 51%; however, BYD's share further declined to 20%, less than half of CATL's share.

There are three companies with a cumulative market share of 2%, namely Lishen Battery, AVIC Lithium Battery, and EVE Energy. Only six companies have a market share of more than 1%, namely Farasis Energy, Canaan, Penghui, BAK, Xinwoda, and Do-Fluoride.

Cumulative installed capacity of the top 20 enterprises from January to October (MWh)

Source: Electric Vehicle Observer, based on the statistics of vehicle factory certificates Note: CATL data includes SAIC

3. Material system: The proportion of lithium iron phosphate increased month-on-month

In October, the market share of lithium iron phosphate batteries was 26%, compared with 24% in September.

In October, the installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate batteries was 1.06GWh, down 44% year-on-year and up 12% month-on-month, mainly due to the recovery of the installed capacity of special vehicles. The installed capacity of ternary materials was 3GWh, down 28% year-on-year and up 1% month-on-month, mainly due to the recovery of the passenger car market.

In October, the installed capacity of lithium manganese oxide was 10.07MWh, down 81% year-on-year and 70% month-on-month.

Lithium iron phosphate, lithium titanate, and lithium manganese oxide batteries are mostly used in the commercial vehicle field, so large fluctuations in the above materials are generally related to the production of commercial vehicles.

Source: Number of vehicle factory certificates; Analysis and charting: Electric Vehicle Observer

The number of commercial vehicles increased the most month-on-month, from 2,891 in September to 11,100 in October, a month-on-month increase of 284.2%. The number of passenger cars increased relatively little, from 69,000 in September to 71,800 in October, a month-on-month increase of only 3.4%.

In terms of vehicle types, ternary pure electric passenger cars still have the highest market share. In October, the above-mentioned models installed 2.76GWh, a decrease of 2% from the previous month, accounting for 67.7% of the market. Pure electric buses equipped with lithium iron phosphate batteries installed 605.86MWh, a decrease of 13% from the previous month, accounting for 14.9% of the market.

In October, the largest month-on-month growth was in pure electric special-purpose vehicles equipped with lithium iron phosphate, with an installed capacity of 389.57MWh, a month-on-month increase of 147%, accounting for 9.6% of the city.