Hou Ziqiang talks about 3G development

hkn

Hou Ziqiang talks about 3G development [Copy link]

Using 3G to meet the "telecom winter"

2006-8-3

Every technological revolution in the past has brought rapid growth to the telecommunications industry, but the Internet technology revolution is not a blessing for the telecommunications industry, but a subversion. Now, the telecommunications industry has bid farewell to the period of rapid growth, and the bigger problem is that in the face of the impact of IP Internet technology, the traditional telecommunications industry is still passively resisting. The

original idea of developing 3G was questionable whether it met the market demand. 3G was proposed in the late 1980s and early 1990s, when there was no Internet. The Internet was not commercialized until 1994, so 3G was mobile broadband based on ATM. After it came out, the Internet became popular, and it wanted to change to IP.

In addition, the Internet is constantly changing its technology and model, and the entire telecom industry is shifting, which has led to constant changes in 3G. The commercialization started with the R99 version, which is now widely used internationally. It is not an IP structure at all. In R4, the core network began to be IP-based, and then to R5 and R6, and it continued to evolve version by version, trying to get closer to IP. In the end, it still didn't get it right, and now it has developed a new product called LTE, which is ready to basically achieve IP through major transformation. However, the most important thing is that operators use these technologies and ultimately want to create a "closed" garden. They can never get rid of this market stereotype. They have never gotten rid of the traditional thinking of telecom and are unwilling to see the new changes brought about by the Internet industry. I think this is the key essence of the possible cold winter for telecom operators.

As for the issue of 3G, many people today see it as the country's support for TD. If TD doesn't work, we won't move.

If we regard 3G as a change of dynasty, that is wrong. It is impossible to set off a consumption boom by relying on 3G. Today, 2G has a mobile phone penetration rate of 93% in cities, which is close to saturation. It is impossible to promote 3G in rural areas. Therefore, we can only choose to upgrade to 3G in some mature urban markets.

If 3G cannot be promoted, then TD cannot be promoted either. TD has been recognized in international standards, and it is right for the country to support it. The problem is that 3G itself has problems, and TD cannot jump out of the 3G framework. Now, we don’t have to worry about how many things TD has not passed the test, and what problems it still has. These problems are not difficult to solve as long as we want to. The problem is how to promote 3G, and it is not clear now. If a 3G network is built across the country, it will definitely be described as a "disaster" and it will be impossible to compete with 2G.

First, the bandwidth is not enough, and the user experience is not much different from 2.5G. In addition, the fees are too high. We noticed that Japan's KDDI launched a 3G monthly package, and the number of users soared, becoming a rising star and catching up with NTT DoCoMo. NTT DoCoMo had to launch a 3G monthly package this year, so the "walled garden" could no longer be enclosed.

The R5 version of 3G has a high-speed downlink circuit called HSDPA, which groups the wireless circuit and increases the speed to more than 10 Mbps. Even if China wants to use 3G, in my opinion, it has to go this far. HSDPA should be supported. If so, there will be a certain market. From the perspective of the evolution of wireless technology, they are different paths to the same destination. 3G evolved from mobile to broadband, and wireless access evolved from broadband to mobile. In the end, the same technology is used to achieve the same goal and the market is the same.

Mobile operators will inevitably tend to choose HSDPA in 3G, and the development of TD must pay full attention to this trend.

It is not feasible to re-lay the 3G network, but it is possible to gradually expand the 2G network in local areas through dual-mode mobile terminals and network cards, and it is competitive. The smartest strategy is for 2G operators to launch 3G and give away mobile phones wherever they see that the 2G network is mature, but this is a gradual conversion process and will not lead to a large equipment investment boom.

In fact, who is the most anxious about 3G and IPTV? Not the operators, not the consumers, but the equipment manufacturers. If 3G is not available and IPTV cannot be turned on, the equipment manufacturers are the most worried.

Author: Hou Zi, member of the Communications Technology Committee of the Ministry of Information Industry and researcher at the Institute of Acoustics, Chinese Academy of Sciences