New policies for the semiconductor industry are being prepared, and experts refute the bubble theory

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New policies for the semiconductor industry are being prepared, and experts refute the bubble theory [Copy link]

The argument that "China's semiconductor bubble is beginning to emerge" is circulating in the industry, and at this moment, the government is preparing to introduce new policies for the semiconductor industry. Six years of policy tilt to help create a bubble? Some experts expressed their opposition yesterday.

　　Several domestic semiconductor companies have stagnated in development, and some observers believe that this is a microcosm of the bursting of the first round of semiconductor industry bubble in China. However, Yang Xueming, senior consultant of the China Institute of Information and Communications Technology Development, believes that "China's semiconductor industry will not have a bubble in the next few years." He pointed out that the current "self-sufficiency rate" of China's semiconductor industry is only about 20%, which is far from meeting domestic demand, and the biggest feature of the so-called "bubble" is oversupply. Li Ke of the Semiconductor Industry Association also shook his head at the "bubble theory": "There is no bubble in the domestic semiconductor industry at present."

　　Yang Xueming analyzed that the root of the pessimistic argument lies in the field of IC design. "Since the release of the 'No. 18 Document', domestic IC design manufacturers have grown rapidly, expanding from 100 to more than 500 in 5 years, but this is an inevitable phenomenon in the development of the industry."

　　The "No. 18 Document" mentioned by Yang Xueming is a milestone that cannot be ignored in the Chinese semiconductor industry. In 2000, the State Council promulgated the "Several Policies on Encouraging the Development of the Integrated Circuit Industry", commonly known as "Document No. 18". Subsequently, domestic integrated circuit (IC) design companies flourished, attracting large-scale investment from many overseas chip manufacturers and packaging and testing companies.

　　However, the tax incentives for domestic chip companies under this policy came under pressure from the United States, and two key support measures were stopped on September 1, 2004 and April 1, 2005, respectively.

　　Yang Xueming, who participated in the formulation of "Document No. 18", believes that in the next few years, it will be very normal for integration and mergers to occur in the field of IC design. The number of companies may decrease, but the total number of employees and production capacity will not decrease. In the field of investment, China will need to inject tens of billions of yuan in funds in the next few years.

　　Relevant data show that in 2005, China's semiconductor consumer market grew by 32% to 40.8 billion yuan, becoming the world's largest regional semiconductor market for the first time. Market analysis company IDC said that in the next five years, China's semiconductor industry will grow at twice the rate of the global semiconductor industry.

　　In addition to extinguishing the "bubble theory", the industry's attention is focused on the new policies for the semiconductor industry that are being brewed. In order to encourage the standardized development of China's semiconductor industry, relevant departments are formulating new policies to support the development of the semiconductor industry, which are expected to be issued in the second half of the year.

　　Yang Xueming revealed that encouraging the development of the integrated circuit industry is one of the main themes of the new policy. It is reported that unlike the "No. 18 Document" hastily issued by the former State Planning Commission, this new policy will be implemented by the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Commerce, the State Administration of Taxation, the General Administration of Customs, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Information Industry, etc.